The Pre-Preview: Tennessee vs. Arkansas 2025
Vols look for a little hair of the Hog to cure last year's hangover from Fayetteville
Pre-Previous Pre-Previews: Syracuse, Georgia
My goal is to hit Arkansas, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Florida. Time permitting I’ll also look at MSU, Kentucky, Vandy, and the rest of the non-conference schedule.
A Year Ago
If you didn’t really pay attention to Arkansas outside of the Hogs’ win against Tennessee last year, you probably assume Arkansas had a pretty good season. After all, UT only lost three games—one to the national champion, one to the SEC champion, and the other to Arkansas. So Sam Pittman’s squad must’ve had a pretty good year, right? Turns out the Razorbacks went—checks notes—7-6 in 2024. Ok. Well most of those seven wins must’ve been against the SEC’s tops teams, right? Well, turns out the Razorbacks beat Auburn and Mississippi State en route to a 3-5 SEC record. Ok. Hey, they beat Texas… Tech. In the Liberty Bowl. So there’s that?
So what happened to the Vols in Fayetteville a year ago? It’s a game that Tennessee really should’ve won, but it’s also a game that was fraught with peril from the beginning. The two teams had a more similar overall talent level than most Vol fans probably realized, plus Josh Heupel’s teams always seem to lay an egg on the road at least once a year. Arkansas also pulled some shenanigans defensively that threw the Vols’ offense for a loop.
It was in many ways a perfect storm that Arkansas will have a hard time repeating in Knoxville this season. In fact, Arkansas will have a dang near impossible time repeating it this season. In fact, I’ve got a strong feeling that Tennessee will beat the hell out of the Hogs come mid-October.
Personnel
Very few returning starters, very few top-200 recruits, but tons of transfer players is the story of Arkansas’ roster.
In fact, 15 of the Hogs’ 22 starters are just a year or two removed from their former team, and another 7 or 8 in the 2-deep as well.
The strength of the offense will be the offensive line, which is no surprise for a Sam Pittman-coached team. The OL is anchored by OG Fernando Carmona, who earned 3rd-team All-SEC honors last year.
Taylen Green returns at QB, but will have an all-new receiving corps made up mostly of transfers.
Not a ton of star power, nor a lot of returning starters on the defense. However, they are an experienced group.
LBs Xavian Sorey and Stephen Dix are the strength of the defensive unit.
Outlook
All of the ratings systems we’re going to look at, including this site’s JAR rating, basically agree on Arkansas: a decently good team that plays an impossible schedule. JAR has the Hogs as the 36th-highest rated team. Yet it also identifies just 4 wins on the Arkansas schedule as well as 8 losses—no tossups, everything is either a certain win or certain loss. I’m not sure the model looked at any other team and ID’d exactly zero toss-up games.
The model also has Arkansas as most likely to win 4 or 5 games overall, and likely 2 wins in the SEC.
By comparison, no other team in the JAR top 30 is projected to have a losing record. Arkansas is rated seven spots higher than Boise State, a likely playoff team. You have to drop all the way to 48 (Vanderbilt) to find the next team as probable as Arkansas to finish under .500—a testament to the difficulty of the Hogs’ schedule in 2025. Kelley Ford’s rating have the Hogs winning 2 SEC games:
While SP+ has Arkansas at 5 wins overall, with the 3rd-toughest schedule in America (the last two columns):
So What?
How does the tremendous difficulty of Arkansas’ schedule affect Tennessee’s game against the Hogs in October? Arkansas will come into Knoxville with three of their likely wins behind them. If they also happen to upset either of Ole Miss or Notre Dame, they will likely also come in ranked. If they were to beat both—which is highly unlikely—they would be a very highly ranked team, possibly a top-10 faceoff in Neyland between the two.
What’s more likely, though, is for the Hogs to be 3-2 when they face the Vols, and that’s barring an upset loss against Memphis. Meanwhile Tennessee will likely be 4-1 (unless they can upset Georgia) and looking for revenge following last season’s stunning loss in Fayetteville. UT has a knack for payback in the Josh Heupel era. Unless the team’s name is Georgia, Tennessee has exacted revenge for a road loss every time they’ve had the opportunity: losses at Alabama and Florida in ‘21 and ‘23 were avenged in ‘22 and ‘24, and the ‘22 loss at South Carolina was paid back in ‘23. The only other road losses since 2021 didn’t have a return game.
On top of that, the Neyland crowd will be rabid. With the game being a “flex” kickoff of 3:30 or later, Rocky Top will be well-lathered and the setting could potentially be a Dark Mode or Checker Neyland game, only adding to the intensity of the backdrop. To Arkansas’ credit, they could very well come into this game with a winning record and a chip on their shoulder. Maybe the Hogs are the surprise team of the SEC in 2025 and outstrip the record projections. But more likely, Tennessee gets their revenge when Arkansas comes to town.