IFTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Florida Gators Preview 2024
You can't spell Sun Belt Billy without UT. Wait, no...
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Tennessee (#8 AP/#9 Coaches, 4-1, 1-1 SEC) lost to Arkansas 14-19 in the latest of a string of bizarre games between the Hogs and Vols. Check out the Advanced Box Score post for more about the game if you haven’t already, but the gist is Tennessee needs to score more (I know, thank you Captain Obvious).
Meanwhile Florida (NR, 3-2, 1-1 SEC) beat UCF 24-13 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score makes it look. Gator QBs Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway combined for a 82% completion rate against the Knights, and the duo has a 87.5% completion rate with four TDs and no interceptions in the last two games combined. They are also one of only two pairs of QBs nationally with 600+ passing yards each, the other being Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning.
Previously on Vols vs. Gators
So I get to follow up Saturday’s ugly loss with a retrospective of this series? Neat.
Ok, let’s talk Tennessee-Florida history. It sucks. Tennessee trails Florida in the all-time series 21-34. When I was born in 1978 Tennessee led 13-4. When I was a freshman at UT, the Vols still held a 15-9 edge. And yes, the series has delivered some of the most memorable moments in Tennessee lore—whether it’s Dale Carter’s kickoff return for a TD in 1990’s 45-3 blowout win, the 1998 overtime no sirree FG miss when Pandemonium reigned, Travis Stephens’ 226 yards in 2001, James Wilhoit’s redemption with a 50-yard game-winning FG in 2004, or Jauan Jennings burning Teez Tabor in 2016, there have been some incredible highlights for the Vols over the years.
But there has been just as much, and likely more, frustration for Tennessee in this series. Throughout the 90s, Tennessee was a top-3 team nationally most seasons. However UT was thwarted by the fact that another top-3 team resided not only in the same conference, but in the same division, meaning Vol fans rarely got to fully enjoy just how good their team was because in a time before the current “New Year’s 6” format, they were relegated to a near-yearly Citrus Bowl appearance (imagine the chaos those 90s Vol teams could’ve caused in a playoff era). And there’s nothing inherently wrong with the Citrus Bowl, but it was always made to feel less-than in comparison to whatever accolades Florida was getting, and especially when Steve Spurrier took occasion to point it out (which he did often).
So while Tennessee went to the Swamp a year ago with high hopes, it’s not surprising that those hopes were expertly dashed 16-29 by a milquetoast Gator squad that finished the year 6-7. Do you even realize Florida has had three 7-loss seasons is a row? You wouldn’t notice if you’re just looking from the Tennessee side, as the Vols have accounted for just ONE of Florida’s last 21 losses. Entire coaching staffs have come and gone from Knoxville without beating the Gators, which isn’t that surprising. But on the flip side, entire coaching staffs have been dismissed from Florida without ever losing to Tennessee. Will Muschamp and Dan Mullen never lost to UT. Hell even Jim McElwain, the same man who was photographed naked humping the carcass of a dead shark, only lost to Tennessee once. Florida is in their Dooley-Butch-Pruitt era, and if the Vols don’t start capitalizing on that fact soon, they will find the window closed before they know it.
Five Factor Preview
Tennessee Offense vs. Florida Defense
All that green under Tennessee’s offense is a little misleading. Even though the Vols are in the upper third in most of these offensive categories, a good chunk of that is the residue of a weak non-conference schedule. Tennessee has yet to prove they can produce offensively against a SEC defense.
The good news is those reddish numbers under Florida’s defense are very real. They give up a lot of scoring opportunities, and while they’ve done a decent job of limiting points per opportunity, the high allowed success rate makes one think they can’t bend without breaking forever.
Florida doesn’t release a proper two-deep, so it was a challenge to piece this together, and I’m sure it’s not 100% right.
Also, I fully expect the Gators to do what Oklahoma and Arkansas did to limit Tennessee’s run game, which is play a lot of 3-2-6 defense. There’s been a lot of talk this week about how Tennessee should be able to run at will against a 5-man box. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Look here how Arkansas has a “5-man front”:
The five in the box are obvious. What’s less obvious are the three safeties (marked with ?s) who are also going to be involved in the run game. One or more of them are making a run-first read. One or more of them are part of the defense’s run fit, meaning they are responsible for defending a gap at the line of scrimmage if the play is a run. What makes it difficult for the offensive line is you don’t know which one or ones are part of the run fit. Therefore you can’t account for that player in the run scheme pre-snap. The way that play turns out, it’s the safeties in the middle and to the offense’s right that stick their noses in:
It’s #30, who appears to be the middle-field safety pre-snap, that is the B-gap defender on this play, and who makes the tackle. If he’s not running downhill as soon as the play starts, this turns into a 8-10 yard gain, if not more. Trying to account for the safety in the run scheme before the snap isn’t impossible, but it’s tricky, especially since you don’t know for sure which one’s coming.
It’s also interesting that on the second play of the game Arkansas is using #30, Larry Worth III, in this spot since Worth is listed as the backup at this position, but is also 20 pounds heavier than the listed starter. Obviously they went with the guy who has a little more lead in his pants. Worth had made just two tackles on the year coming into this game, but was second on the team Saturday night with seven tackles, including half a sack.
You can counter this with play action—take the top off the defense a couple of times and those safeties will be more reluctant to fly downhill—but then the OL has to give the QB time, the WRs have to get separation in their routes, and the QB has to see the open man; all things Tennessee struggled with against Arkansas. I will be shocked if Florida doesn’t employ a similar strategy this weekend.
When it comes to personnel, Florida doesn’t seem to have a lot of faith in their own defense. You have to get five pages deep into the media notes for this week before they mention a defensive player. Currently, the Gators defense is led by LB Grayson Howard and DB Jordan Castell, who each have 24 tackles this season; LB Jaden Robinson, who has the team-best PFF tackling grade at 87.2 and (according to Florida SID) hasn’t missed a tackle this season; and EDGE George Gumbs Jr., who has 4.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks this year, both team-highs.
Tennessee Defense vs. Florida Offense
Florida lists both a right-side TE and a left-side TE, as well as Y-receiver, which is probably why they don’t release an official two-deep: everybody just ends up listed anyway.
Florida is fairly proud of their two-headed QB system. For the last three games, Mertz has taken the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th possession of each half, with Lagway taking the 3rd and 6th. There are currently 17 FBS QBs with 600 passing yards, a 69% completion rate and a 160+ passer rating, and Mertz & Lagway are two of them. WR Eugene “Tre” Willson emerged as the early favorite target for the UF QBs before missing the last two games with injury. Wilson is not listed on UF’s preliminary injury report for this week. RB Montrell Johnson is the Gators’ leading rusher, and has 31 career rushing TDs, most of any active SEC rusher.
Prediction
Discerning readers will have picked up on a more somber tone in this preview. In a lot of ways, I wish I’d been more honest with myself before Arkansas—I had identified that game over the summer as one that was going to give the Vols a lot of trouble. Back in June & July, when most were looking at the NC State game as a major proving ground for Tennessee, I was more worried about going on the road to face the Hogs. On paper, and going just by recruiting rankings, Arkansas has a more talented roster than Tennessee does. They would be at home, potentially playing to help keep a beloved coach off the hot seat. In hindsight, i should’ve been more vocal and on-the-record about those worries, and I shouldn’t have let myself be talked out of that position based on what I saw against Oklahoma.
None of that is to pat myself on the back or say I nailed the Arkansas prediction. I didn’t. By the time Arkansas week got here I had somehow convinced myself that Fayettnam of all places would be where the whole game finally clicked into focus for the Tennessee offense and Nico would put up 350 and 41 points. That was foolish. The reality is our 5-star QB has no field vision right now. Our 5-star OT looks like he’s playing patty-cake on half his snaps. Our much-ballyhoo’d WRs can’t get separation. What the hell is happening with this offense?
So now the Vols need a get-right game, but UTC ain’t coming out of that tunnel. Instead you get a program that has beaten Tennessee 17 out of the last 19 games. A program that in my lifetime has flipped the series record from a 13-4 deficit to a 21-32 advantage. A program that has been told all off-season that they stink, they’re dead in the water, bottom-feeder SEC rejects with a Sun Belt coach. And now they have a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose. That’s your get-right game?
Well, yes. It has to be. There’s no other choice. Want to remain a playoff contender? a SECCG contender? This is it. It’s a must-win. Lose this one and you’re looking the Liberty Bowl dead in the face if you don’t win out—and if you lose this one you ain’t winning out. So how?
First, this will be the Vols’ first home game in nearly a month. The Neyland crowd would be rabid even if it wasn’t Florida, and it is Florida, and it’s Checker Neyland, and it’s a night game—all ingredients for an eardrum-shattering night for Graham Mertz, DJ Lagway, or whoever else Florida puts behind center.
On top of that, since it’s a home game, the offense will undoubtably play better. It always has under Heupel. Whether it’s the lack of noise, the comfort level of the environment, or whatever other correlation you come up with, Tennessee plays better offense at home.
I can’t in good conscience pick Tennessee to cover the 15.5-point spread. I’m having a hard time making myself pick the Vols at all after last week. UT has a lot to fix in a short time. But, I also think both Oklahoma and Arkansas are better teams than Florida. And for all its flaws against the Hogs, Tennessee still dang near won that game last week. I keep asking myself if Tennessee can score 30 points, and I think they can. I certainly don’t see this defense giving up more than that. Tennessee 31, Florida 20.