Tennessee 14, Arkansas 19: Advanced Box Score
Some final insights into a dreadful night in Fayetteville
Five Factor Tracker
One of the indicators that Heuple’s offense is running at peak capacity has been points per scoring opportunity (remember, a scoring opportunity is advancing the ball inside the opponent’s 40). In 2022, Tennessee’s PPO was 4.8, good for 5th-highest nationally and 1st in the SEC. The way I see it, 4.8 is closer to 6 than it is to 3, meaning when that 2022 team just made it to the 40, they were most likely going to score a touchdown.
However, in 2023 UT’s PPO dropped to 3.5, which put them at #92 nationally—even the 2021 team had a top-40ish PPO at 4.3. Right now, Tennessee’s PPO is just 4.35, that’s 7th in the SEC and 41st nationally. That puts the Vols behind such offensive powerhouses as Pitt, Wisconsin, and North Carolina on a national scale. Even Army and Navy have a better PPO than Tennessee does right now, although UT creates a ton more scoring opportunities to make up for it.
The real worry isn’t where the number is nationally, it’s that the number is trending downward since the start of SEC play. Obviously the Vols weren’t going to continue posting the 5+ PPO they recorded against UTC and Kent State against SEC defenses, but they’ve posted a PPO right at or under 3 against both Oklahoma and Arkansas. Tennessee is getting less than a field goal out of every scoring opportunity. They just aren’t finishing drives. And the number is trending in the wrong direction.
By the way, if you’ve kept up with anything out of the NFL this year, you know that scoring is down across the league. Defenses playing more 2-deep safeties has been the bogeyman espoused by pundits. But there’s an undercurrent of opinion that wonders if coaches, who are increasingly buying into these kind of analytics, have de-emphasized getting to the endzone and over-emphasized getting to the 40. Are coaches, in both/either the NFL or NCAA, getting to the 40 and getting conservative so as not to risk their shot at 3 points? I can’t say for sure, and I sure can’t say that’s what is happening with Josh Heuple and Tennessee’s offense. But something has changed and it’s evident both statistically and with the eye test.
Rushing Report
The run game, statistically, was fine Saturday. Dylan Sampson’s 53 yard run in the third quarter does a lot of work here, although most of UT runs up the middle were for 3-4 yards a pop. Most of the time, a 4-yard run would be a success. The problem is running for 4 yards on 2nd & 15 because you jumped offsides, or running for 4 yards on 3rd & 7. And although the Tennessee OL gave up 4 sacks against Arkansas, not a single running play was stopped for no loss or a TFL. Maybe we should block pass plays like they’re running plays?
Player Usage & PPA
Tennessee’s string of six games holding the opponent’s starting QB to negative PPA ended Saturday in Fayetteville. Ironically, most Vol fans would’ve guessed Talen Green beat UT on the ground, considering our long, nightmarish history with dual-threat QBs. Green was held to -5 yards net however, and -8.3 PPA in the run game.
I’ve read some criticism that PPA is a team stat and should not be used to judge players individually. There’s probably some merit to that. However, if your starting QB is held to 1.7 PPA, there’s a real good chance you lose the game.
Here’s hoping that a return to the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium make a difference in how this team operates on Saturday against Florida.