IFTIT: Tennessee Vols at Ohio State Buckeyes CFP Round 1 Preview 2024
Partial preview is better than no preview...
With apologies, this preview is not as complete as I’d like it to be. In real life, I’m an English teacher, and exam week plus Christmas prep made the week get away from me.
Recently
Tennessee (#7 CFP, 10-2, 6-2 SEC) finished the regular season with the traditional thumping of instate rival Vanderbilt, 36-23. After beginning the game with a worst-case scenario game-opening kick return touchdown followed by a fumble recovery and short-field TD drive by the Dores, it seemed as if Tennessee might once again lose a high-stakes road game. But after trailing 17-7 at the end of Q1, UT finished the game 29-6, proving the Commodores—who a month earlier looked like a brand new team in beating #1 Alabama—to simply be Same Ol’ Vandy.
Speaking of same ol’, Ohio State (#6 CFP, 10-2, 6-2 Big 10) lost to rival Michigan for the fourth straight year, despite the Buckeyes being heavy favorites in The Game this season. It’s debatable which stung more: the loss, or the pepper spray used to separate the teams in a post-gem pier-six brawl.
Previously on Vols vs. Buckeyes
This will be just the second meeting between UT and OSU. In the previous meeting—a game that will never be forgotten by the living fan—Tennessee beat the Buckeyes 20-14 in the Citrus Bowl on January 1, 1997. It was a rain-soaked game, one that Ohio State would seem to be built for on paper, being led by Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George at tailback against the aerial attack of Peyton Manning and the Vols. However, it was Tennessee’s defense and fan favorite DL Bill Duff that stonewalled George on a 4th-and-inches play inside the 10, and UT RB Jay Graham that out-rushed the Heisman winner, 154 yards to 101.
Five Factor Preview & Personnel
Tennessee Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
OSU’s defense has been a brick wall this season, leading the nation in scoring defense, total defense, second in passing defense and red zone defense, and finishing the regular season seventh nationally in rushing defense. Analytically, they are one of the top teams in limiting points per scoring opportunity at just 1.86 PPO. Think of it this way: if you’ve followed the thread this season, I’ve been harping on Tennessee’s offense needing to improve their 3.97 PPO as that’s just not near enough—and Ohio State allows less than half of that. The Bucks also allow just a 34.1% success rate. So as an offense, if only around 1/3 of your plays are successful, You’re going to be punting. A lot. Fortunately the Vols have done a tremendous job of controlling field position this season, so punting isn’t the end of the world. In fact, field position could be a deciding factor in this game if Tennessee can’t find some explosive plays—a weakness the Vols have faced all year, and yet another strength of the OSU defense.
FWIW, neither team released a two-deep this week. Listen, coaches, it’s not that serious fellas. You can put players’ names on a piece of paper without being beholden to it. It’s just kinda nice for fans to have a little idea of who might play. Of course Josh Heupel probably wouldn’t release a roster at all if he thought he could get away with it. This stab at a depth chart comes from earlier season info and ourlads.com.
We’ll get into this a little more down the page, but Ohio State will have one of the most talented rosters Tennessee has played against this season.
Tennessee Defense vs. Ohio State Offense
There’s an argument to be made that if the Buckeyes have the best defense in these playoffs, then Tennessee has the second best. The Vols are right on the heels of the OSU defense in most categories, and exceed them in some—creating havoc plays being one in favor of UT that could help swing a close game like this.
Prediction
Tennessee has an 8-5 record over the last three years against “blue-chip ratio” teams. We discussed this in the Georgia game preview. Three of those losses came against UGA. So the Vols are 8-2 against BCR teams not located in Athens, GA. That includes wins against perennial playoff programs like Alabama and Clemson. Ohio State is a “blue-chip ratio” team and a perennial playoff contender (also noticeably not located in Athens, GA).
This season, Tennessee has played against five teams that have either an overall talent advantage or an advantage on at least one side of the ball. Remember talent != production; this is a measure of players’ recruiting rankings, and I’m only counting players in the team’s two-deep.
So Tennessee has had success against similar teams, albeit almost entirely at home. The larger point would be that Tennessee shouldn’t be expected to win this game: on the road against one of the country’s most talented rosters and a program that is used to the bright lights of the playoffs. Most analytic outlets have OSU at a 60-70% chance to win. Vegas has the Buckeyes at -7 or so. Considering the factors I’ve mentioned, that makes a lot of sense. My official, no-orange-lenses prediction is Ohio State 23, Tennessee 17.
However.
I wouldn’t be prepping to go stand in 20-degree temperatures for hours if I didn’t think Tennessee has better than a puncher’s chance at actually winning. There are so many x-factors that could break UT’s way that can’t be included in a prediction: turnovers, weather, noise (will there really be 20-30K Vol fans in attendance?) and the margin in this game is so thin, any out of dozens of factors could break Tennessee’s way and see the Vols moving on to Pasadena and the Ducks in round two. So even though it makes the most sense to pick Ohio State, there is every reason to keep hope that Tennessee’s flag is planted at midfield Saturday night.