IFTIT: Tennessee Vols at Georgia Bulldogs Football Preview 2024
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I typically start these things off with each team’s recent results and some series history to give the game context. But I think this game calls for a different kind of context.
Before going any further, I want to establish the fact that I do believe Tennessee has a great shot at winning this game. Some of the following might not sound like it. I just want us all on the same page about where we are as Saturday approaches.
A Talent-Rich Environment
Let’s start with a look at talent. Understand that “talent” in this sense is referring to players’ ratings as recruits coming out of high school. Talent does not equal performance of course, but it is a starting place to understand what kind of team you have. You might be aware of the “Blue-Chip Ratio” metric: do you sign more 4- and 5-star players than not? Every team that has won the national championship since 2011 has signed 50% or more blue-chippers over the previous four years. Although Tennessee’s recruiting has improved under Josh Heupel, Tennessee is still not yet one of the teams that meet the “Blue-Chip Ratio” metric.
However, over the last three years UT has had a surprisingly good record against those teams, going 8-4 against schools on the Blue-Chip Ratio list. That’s wins against Alabama, Clemson, Florida, and LSU in ‘22; Texas A&M in ‘23; and Alabama, Florida, and Oklahoma this year (losses to Georgia in ‘22 and ‘23, Alabama and Florida in ‘23). Again, talent != performance, and you might be surprised to even see Florida and Oklahoma on such a list, but those schools have stockpiled talented athletes whether they play like it or not. Against the odds, Tennessee has consistently overperformed against these kind of teams. That’s the good news.
The less good news is that five of those eight wins came at home. Only two were true road games (LSU ‘22 & Oklahoma ‘24), while three of the four losses were on the road. Additionally, out of those teams, the one Tennessee truly can’t seem to break through against is Georgia. The Vols have beaten Alabama two out of three years—they’ve barely been competitive against UGA in that time.
You might react to all of that by pointing out that the Blue Chip Ratio doesn’t account for transfers. But even if you just look at the recruiting ratings of players in the 2-Deep for each team, Tennessee lags behind or is equal to many of the teams on their schedule.
The Vols had a talent deficit against Florida and Alabama, but won both of those games. Of course, both were close, and both had the advantage of being playing in front of ferocious Neyland crowds. No such advantage Saturday night in Athens.
Never Tell Me the Odds
It would also be healthy to remember the Vols are a 10-point underdog Saturday for a reason. Every analytic model I follow has the Dawgs at 60-65% to win. Some examples:
That’s not unreasonable either. All win probability really means is “If these two teams played 10 times, how many would [X] win?” No matter how certain you are of a UT victory (or defeat) Saturday, you have to know that if the game was played 10 times, neither team would win all 10. So how many would Tennessee take? Is the answer 3? That might be low. 4? Seems reasonable. 5? Probably not more than that, especially on the road. You might disagree and think that UT would win 6 or more times. That’s cool, you do you. I hope you’re right.
What I’m getting at is, Tennessee can win this game. They regularly beat good, talented teams that on paper they have no business competing with.
Five Factor Preview & Depth Charts
Tennessee Offense vs. Georgia Defense
This chart continues to look the same for Tennessee from week to week. The points per opportunity are staying stagnant as is the explosiveness. But I’ll tell you what I find encouraging here, especially for this week’s game: Tennessee continues to be one of the nation’s leading teams in creating scoring opportunities. So while it would be comforting to see that PPO number creep up (and it easily could with a little bit of cleanup—UT was stopped at the goal line last week, and has lost a red zone fumble in each of the last three games), the really important thing is to keep creating the opportunities to score and scrape together as many points as you can. Seems especially true this week in a game that will be heavily decided by the defenses.
Speaking of defense, Georgia’s is good, as is to be expected under Kirby Smart. This will likely be the best defense Tennessee will face this season. But it’s not too dissimilar from Alabama’s defense statistically. It’s also a lot like Oklahoma’s defense and—well, I’ll just drop this here and let you make your own conclusions:
Those are, by these particular analytics, the best defenses Tennessee will face this year. Some of them have more talent than others, but again, talent does not equal production.
FYI, UGA doesn’t release a 2-deep, so this depth chart came from ourlads.com
Back to the talent discussion, Tennessee has several former walk-ons that have found there way onto the 2-deep on each side. Georgia has one: backup safety Dan Jackson, who is second on the team in tackles (43) and has two INTs.
DB Malaki Starks is a team co-leader with 49 tackles and is a Jim Thorpe semifinalist.
LB Jalon Walker had three sacks and seven tackles in the first half against Texas, and leads the team with 4.5 sacks and 6.5 TFL.
LB CJ Allen is the team’s co-leader with 49 tackles, including eight last week against Ole Miss.
LB Smael Mondon missed a chunk of the season to injury, but is back in the lineup for Georgia.
Tennessee Defense vs. Georgia Offense
That’s a lot of green on the Tennessee side of the ledger. The Vols have been excellent at limiting points, limiting success rate, and creating havoc plays all year. There were some weird cracks in the armor against Mississippi State last week, where it seemed UT was misaligned or misassigned in the run game—a few plays were there was simply nobody taking responsibility for a gap and letting MSU gash them for some big runs. We’re going to assume that flaw is fixed by Saturday night.
The good news is that Georgia’s defense is neither as explosive nor dynamic as Alabama’s, and the Vols held the Tide under 20 points just as they have every opponent in 2024. That doesn’t mean that UGA’s defense is bad by any stretch. This will still be one of the biggest challenges the Tennessee defense faces this season.
QB Carson Beck, who threw for 24 TDs and nearly 4,000 yards a year ago, has hit some turbulence over the last few weeks, with only 2 TDs thrown against 7 INTs.
Beck has a 4:3 TD:INT ratio this season after coming into the year with a 4:1 ratio.
The Dawgs’ RB room is in bad shape, with Branson Robinson and Roderick Robinson III both out with injuries, while Trevor Etienne, Nate Frazier, and Cash Jones all questionable for this game.
Florida transfer Etienne leads the team with 477 rushing yards and 7 TDs. Etienne rushed for 172 yards against the Vols in the Swamp last season.
The UGA OL has had their share of injury problems too this year, but seem to be back to near-full strength with the return of G Tate Ratledge.
Prediction
Georgia has the nation’s longest current home winning streak at 28 games, dating back to 2019. The Dawgs are 14-3 after a loss under Kirby Smart and haven’t lost back-to-back regular season games under Smart since 2016. I live in Georgia though, and I can anecdotally tell you that the Dawg fans I’ve talked to this week have no confidence in Beck or OC Mike Bobo. They haven’t given up, but they are leaning on the defense to pull this one out for them.
Careful readers will have noticed I haven’t even addressed the Nico situation. Obviously none of us know if he will play or not. I don’t expect we will know until gametime. Heupel is always coy about injury statuses and this week is no different. It’s pretty simple: if Nico plays, Tennessee has a better chance of winning; if he’s out the chance diminishes. Nico has a stronger arm than Gaston Moore. He’s a better athlete. He gives the Vols a better chance. But that doesn’t mean Tennessee has no chance if they have to roll with “Gas Pipe”. This game will be won with defense and the running game, and UT excels at both.
Tennessee has beaten Alabama two of the last three years. Same with Florida. They’ve won a New Years’ 6 bowl. The only thing they haven’t really done under Josh Heupel is beat Georgia and play for a SEC title. It feels like it’s time. Emphasis on feels. Logic says UGA wins—they’ve got advantages in talent and home field. Sanford Stadium doesn’t get rowdy on a weekly basis like Neyland, the Sawmp, or Death Valley; but they can bring it when they need to. Crowd noise affected the game in ‘22 and will likely again on Saturday.
But at some point this program has to take that next step by beating Georgia and playing in Atlanta. Games are won by running the ball and stopping the run. Tennessee has the chops in the run game to win. Defense travels. Why not now? Vols 24, Dawgs 19.