Vols Out for Revenge Against Struggling Arkansas
IFTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Football Preview 2025
Recently
Tennessee (#12/12, 4-1, 1-1 SEC) survived OT against Mississippi State two weeks ago, then enjoyed a much-needed open week that will hopefully see some banged-up Vols return to the lineup for the upcoming SEC stretch.
Arkansas (NR/NR, 2-3, 0-1 SEC) also had an open week after suffering three straight losses. Two of those Ls—at Ole Miss and at Memphis—were heartbreakers in which the Hogs had a chance to win late and couldn’t see it through. The third one, a 56-13 shellacking by visiting Notre Dame in which Arkansas barely seemed to have a pulse, that was the death knell for Sam Pittman’s tenure in Fayetteville. Now the Razorbacks come to Knoxville led by interim head coach and former boss Hog Bobby Petrino, he who will certainly be one of the most highly scrutinized interim coaches in college football this season.
Previously on Vols-Razorbacks
Nope. Next question.
I mean how does he just run out of bounds with time running out on fourth down just chunk one into the endzone and hope maybe you get a PI at least you have to do something not just run out of you know what whatever dude. You saw the game.
Although Tennessee is 13-7 all-time against the Hogs, Arkansas seems to spoil Tennessee dreams on a pretty regular basis. When UT-UA starting being an every-year affair in 1992, the Razorbacks beat a top-5 Tennessee team despite having lost to The Citadel earlier in the season. The Hogs nearly played spoiler in 1998 until Clint Stoerner stumbled and fumbled, then did knock off a top-5 UT the following year. Last year’s 14-19 loss ended up keeping Tennessee out of the SEC championship game and ultimately kept the Vols from at worst hosting a playoff game in round one. Tennessee baseball struggles against Arkansas, too, including losing last year’s Fayetteville Super Regional. At least Deacon Barnes has us right, as the BasketVols have won eight of the last 10 against Arkansas.
But I digress. Since dropping Arkansas as an every-year opponent in 2002, Tennessee is just 1-5 against the Razorbacks. However, the record is 1-1 at Neyland Stadium during that time and Tennessee is 6-2 against Arkansas in Knoxville all-time.
Five Factor Preview
I’ll put a prediction down below, but here’s a spoiler. The JAR Rating (which I will freely admit has flaws) still shows what I believe will be the deciding factor in this game. Both teams have top 25 offenses. Tennessee’s has been a little better to date but you could take either group and score points. But there’s a stark difference in these teams’ defenses. It’s true that UT’s defense has not been the standout group we saw a year ago. But Arkansas’ defense has been downright putrid this season. The Razorbacks gave up fewer than 30 points in their first two games (against Alabama A&M and Arkansas State). Since then, the floodgates have been open, and there’s little reason to think Saturday will be much different.
Personnel and Matchups
Last year, Arkansas shifted out of their usual 4-2-5 alignment and played a hybrid defense that had three down linemen and two linebackers with six defensive backs. While it sounds like running against a five man front should be automatic success, the trick was that on any given down one of those six DBs actually had the run responsibilities of a linebacker. As such there was no way for the offense to know which DB would be in the run fit, thereby making it especially difficult to account for all defenders in the blocking scheme.
The good news is twofold: Tennessee’s offense is much more prolific this year than last and should be able to find more ways to deal with whatever Arkansas throws at them. Plus, Vanderbilt tried the same defensive alignment against the Vols at the end of last season and UT put up 500+ yards and 36 points. Other notes:
Larry Worth was the extra DB Arkansas brought in last year for that funky defense. Worth’s first start was in that game and mostly because he looks like a LB but runs like a DB. Worth is now a starting safety for the Hogs so keep an eye on #3 and how they use him.
LB Xavian Sorey leads a very good linebacker corps for Arkansas.
For Tennessee, I’ve upgraded Joey Aguliar’s and Chris Brazzell’s circles to stars on the chart. Brazzell was a no-brainer the way he’s played this season and especially in two SEC games. Joey Swags probably doesn’t get the notoriety he deserves nationally for how he’s played, but we see it here.
QB Taylen Green is the real deal. He’s going to make plays, trying to limit the damage done by those plays is the key.
LG Fernando Carmona started 13 games at LT for the Razorbacks last year before moving inside last spring. He was a preseason All-American and should have some epic battles with UT’s defensive line on Saturday.
WR O’Mega Blake ranked 2nd nationally at 24.8 YPC last year at Charlotte.
Defensively, I’ve given Colton Hood and Joshua Josephs the star treatment. There are others on my radar, but those two have been widely mentioned as potential 1st-rounders. I’ve kept the star label on Boo Carter, somewhat grudgingly.
Prediction
I’ve seen a lot of consternation about Bobby Petrino re-taking the reins in Fayetteville and what that might mean for this weekend. But Petrino was already the OC at Arkansas, so whatever you were going to get from Arkansas’ offense this weekend already is what you’re going to get now. Petrino did make some staff changes on defense, and I’m certain he will have his team fired up to make a new name for themselves after an inauspicious start to the year.
But I’m certain Tennessee will be fired up as well. The only team to beat Josh Heupel in back-to-back seasons at Tennessee is Georgia, and Petrino or not, they ain’t Georgia. Over the summer, I made the prediction that Tennessee would beat the hell out of Arkansas. Do I still stand by that prediction? I guess it depends on what your definition of the hell out of is, but Tennessee should win this one by a couple of touchdowns at least. Vols 43, Arkansas 27.