Vols Face First Road Test at Resurgent MSU
IFTIT: Tennessee Vols at Mississippi State Bulldogs Football Preview 2025
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Tennessee (#15/15, 3-1, 0-1 SEC) trounced UAB 56-24 a week ago. There was some sloppiness in the second half, but the Vols shined in the first stanza, racking up 21 points (UT has scored on 12 of 15 first-quarter drives and and outscored opponents 83-17 in the first period this season) en route to a 42-7 halftime lead.
Meanwhile Mississippi State (RV/RV, 4-0, 0-0 SEC) has had a little bit of the opposite experience so far this season. The Bulldogs have scored 96 points against FBS opponents, with 52 of those points coming in the second half. Last week was no different: holding a slim 14-10 lead over Northern Illinois at halftime, MSU tacked on 24 in the game’s second half to beat NIU 38-10.
Previously on Vols vs. Bulldogs
Tennessee grabbed an early 14-0 lead and never looked back in the Vols’ 33-14 win over MSU in Knoxville last year. The game featured Dylan Sampson’s career-high 149 yards rushing and passing touchdowns of 34 and 73 yards from ol’ boy in LA before “Gas Pipe” Gaston Moore came in to work the second half.
The Vols and Bulldogs have played just four times in the last 16 years. One plus to the new 9-game SEC schedule will be the revival of old series like this one: Tennessee played MSU regularly from 1907 through the 1960s with many games played in Memphis. There are some significant moments in the series too, like Peyton Manning’s first passing touchdown in 1994 (76 yards to Kendrick Jones) and the 1998 SEC Championship Game in Atlanta (a 24-14 Vols win). Tennessee holds a 30-16-1 lead in the series, but is just 5-5 in Starkville.
One other historical note of interest to this game: MSU head coach Jeff Lebby coached with Josh Heupel at UCF as the QB coach in 2018 and QB/OC in 2019. Lebby was also a student assistant while Heupel was at Oklahoma from 2002-06.
Five Factor Preview
In the preseason, this game looked like a walkover for Tennessee. Mississippi State, though, has taken shape as a much tougher opponent than what they were last year. Remember, the Bulldogs lost to Toledo in Starkville in Jeff Lebby’s first season. This season they’ve dispached of those kind of teams fairly easily, while also dispatching last season’s Big 12 champ and playoff team Arizona State.
And you might think it’s just the offense that has improved under Jeff Lebby, but the defense is doing its part too. The MSU D has done a great job thus far of limiting opponents’ success rate, scoring opportunities, and points per opportunity. Tennessee has been less successful in those same categories—although for the most part the scoring opportunities given up by UT have been when the game was already decided.
The point is, although JAR gives the Vols a +60% win probability, for Tennessee to pull off the win they will need to do at least one of two things. Either UT’s defense needs to limit MSU’s opportunities much more they have other opponents this season, or the Vol offense needs to break State’s defense like no one else has so far. If Tennessee can pull off both, the Vols win easily. If they do neither, we might be talking about one more disappointing road loss for the program.
Personnel & Matchup
MSU has a much higher talent and experience level than anyone Tennessee has played this season other than Georgia. The Bulldogs have made serious upgrades at QB and WR from where they were last year.
QB Blake Shapen led Baylor to the 2021 Big 12 championship. Last week was his 29th straight start at QB—though just his 4th at MSU.
WR Brenen Thompson is the Bulldogs’ deep threat. He’s tied for 3rd in FBS in plays over 40 yards (4) and 3rd in the SEC in TDs (3).
Georgia transfer WR Anthony Evans III is 3rd in the SEC in all-purpose yards and has at least 4 receptions in every game so far this season.
Tennessee owned MSU in the trenches last year, but the OL is also upgraded this season, although several MSU OLs are playing positions new to them this season.
Tennessee’s defense might be slightly healthier this week, as DT Jaxson Moi is listed as “questionable” in the early-week injury report. The rest of the injured Vol defense hasn’t had a change in status.
It’s worth noting that MSU runs a defense that is more like a true 3-4 than what this chart represents. Most teams will show multiple fronts over the course of a game, but Tennessee, for example, isn’t usually asking their DL to play two gaps most of the time (if ever). State plays a true odd front with two-gap responsibilities.
DL is another spot where MSU has upgraded, starting with the addition of Texas transfer NT Jaray Bledsoe, who has 7 tackles and a TFL so far this season.
The MSU LB corps is talented and experienced, led by Nic Mitchell (SEC Defensive POW in week 2) alongside Isaac Smith (led the SEC in tackles last year with 124) and including Branden Jennings (96 career tackles).
State’s (left-footed) kicker Kyle Ferrie hasn’t missed a kick this year (19/19 PAT, 4/4 FG w/long of 55).
For Tennessee, David Sanders “should be available”?
Joey Aguliar has played excellently in the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium. Can he do the same in his first true SEC road start?
Prediction
It’s become somewhat of a meme around the Volunteer fan base that Tennessee is good for one bad road loss a year under Josh Heupel. That assessment is based on a handful of games:
‘22 South Carolina,
‘23 Florida,
‘23 Missouri
‘24 Arkansas.
I do not count the ‘24 Georgia or Ohio State games in that list. Those are losses to measuring-stick programs, teams that have already built the kind of program Tennessee is trying to build. I’m not saying you want to lose those games, but there’s no shame in those losses either.
So from the games we are going to count, immediately I throw out ‘23 Florida. I do think Tennessee could have won that game, but in reality UF still had a slight talent advantage against the Vols and the game was in the Swamp, where Tennessee has played well like twice in my entire life. Then there’s the ‘23 Missouri game. To Mizzou’s credit, they had a perfect game plan to limit the Tennessee offense who already lost Bru McCoy earlier in the year and lost Donte Thornton on the day. The UT offense simply had no “pop” at that point and the Tigers exploited that weakness. Stinky losses, yes, but it’s hard to look at either of those games as ones Tennessee “should have” won.
That leaves ‘22 South Carolina and ‘24 Arkansas. In each of those games, Tennessee was at a slight talent advantage—but statistically slighter than you might imagine. I do believe those are games Tennessee should’ve won, but I’m not convinced that two games in three years is a pattern of underachieving, bad juju, or whatever you might want to call it. I believe those games are outliers more than the norm. I can’t explain what happened in Columbia in 2022. I don’t think we as fans will ever get the full story of that week, and maybe it’s better that we don’t.
But I do think I can explain what happened in Fayetteville a year ago, and I think it’s pretty obvious. UT was 6 points from a win, and if the guy playing QB now had been the QB then, you would’ve found your 6 points fairly easily. Tennessee didn’t have a “playing on the road” problem at Arkansas last year—they had a QB who couldn’t find the offense’s gas pedal. That problem seems to be solved, and I think you’ll see it Saturday. Tennessee 42, Mississippi State 20.