Tennessee vs. Oklahoma 2025: The Pre-Preview
Sorry it's taken so long to publish this, I wanted to do it Sooner
Other Pre-Previews: Syracuse, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama
A Year Ago
In 2022, Brent Venables’ first year at Oklahoma, the Sooners started 3-0 before dropping 7 of their last 10 games, finishing with the first losing season in Norman since 1998. But you can’t spell rebound without OU, and Oklahoma bounced back in 2023, finishing 10-3. As a result, Oklahoma entered the 2024 season with a lot of hope. A fresh start in the SEC was on the table. They had a supposed elite QB in Jackson Arnold. The defense looked especially tough. On paper, Oklahoma was a bona fide playoff contender going into the ’24 season.
But games aren’t played on paper. The defense was indeed quality. And the Sooners had a signature SEC win against Alabama. However, the offense struggled mightily throughout the year, and Arnold was not the answer OU thought they had, getting benched in the loss to Tennessee and splitting time with Michael Hawkins throughout the rest of the season on the way to the second 6-7 finish in Venables’ three-year tenure.
Now in 2025, the Sooners have what they believe to be an elite QB to lead a revamped offense and an outstanding defense once again. Does Oklahoma have another rebound year in them? Or will
Personnel
The offensive headliner is Washington State transfer QB John Mateer, who threw for over 3,139 yards and 29 TDs while rushing for another 826 yards for Washington State last season. He’s joined by his OC from Wazzu as well, Ben Arbuckle.
Half the OL returns, which is good news or bad news depending on how you look at it seeing that the OL largely underperformed a year ago. OU believes they have shored up the offensive line with some experienced transfers.
The WR corps welcomes in seven transfer players alongside returning starter Deion Burks.
The defense should be just as strong as last year, led by R Mason Thomas at DE anchoring a defensive line projected to be one of the SEC’s best.
The back seven on defense will be strong as well with a mix of highly rated recruits and guys with returning experience.
Outlook
The JAR rating sees OU the same way it sees a lot of SEC teams: very good, with a very tough schedule. Nine of Oklahoma’s 12 opponents are in the top 25 of JAR, 8 in the top 20, 6 in the top 15 and 3 of those in the top 10.
Considering the toughness of the Sooner’s schedule, the fact that OU could still reasonably win eight, nine, or more games is a testament to the roster’s strength.
The JAR forecast jives with Kelley Ford’s outlook:
And is similar to the SP+ forecast:
So What?
Honestly, this has been the hardest of these early previews for me to write, for two reasons. First, I have no feel for Oklahoma historically, being a new member of the conference. They’re one of the winningest programs of all time. They went 176-60 during the Big 12 years, winning 14 titles in that conference this century. But at the risk of sounding like a SEC homer, would that success translate to this conference? Did the Sooners pad their numbers playing Kansas and Iowa State every year? The irony of that question coming from the fan of a team who plays Vandy and Kentucky each season does not escape me—but it is undeniable that the Big 12 does not recruit at the same level as the SEC, and with Texas alongside OU, was a much more top-heavy conference. What role will Oklahoma settle into in their new conference home?
Secondly, this Oklahoma team seems an awful lot like last year’s OU squad. That’s not a compliment. Lots of excitement about the QB? Check. Defense ready to dominate? You betcha. While the 2025 version should be an upgrade—this QB has actually shown ability on the field for example—it’s hard to believe it until we see it. Mostly I say that because of the head coach. Brent Venables was one of the best assistant coaches in college football for a decade plus. But Oklahoma has had two losing seasons in the last 25 years, and they both fall on the shoulders of Venables. OU has lost 17 games in the last three years. In 15 of them, the Sooners had a higher talent level than their opponent. Only twice under Venables—last year vs. Alabama and in ‘23 against Texas—has Oklahoma been the lesser-talented team and beaten a “better” opponent. Unfortunately, it seems Venables’ teams find a way to lose when they shouldn’t, while rarely finding a way to win when they shouldn’t.
Specifically, when OU comes to Knoxville, what should Vol fans expect to happen? Remember the Texas A&M game in 2023? A&M was a more talented team, but they were led by a coach that, despite successes he had in other places, seemed to be in over his head. UT was able to grind out a gritty, ugly win against the more talented team. The actual Vols-Sooners matchup is pretty far down the road, so we will learn a lot about both teams before that game happens. Knowing how last year’s game went down, you can bet that Oklahoma will be coming in looking for revenge. However, knowing how last year’s game went down, you’d be smart to bet that Tennessee will once again grind out a win.