Tennessee Football Five Factor Tracker Week 2

How do the Vols stack up against their schedule after two games?

With two weeks of data, we might be seeing some teams start to take shape. It’s still too early to draw definite conclusions, but I do remember a year ago that even early on, Missouri looked like they’d be a problem (and they were) while Alabama and Georgia looked like they’d continue to be juggernauts (and they were). Here’s a look at the Five Factor Tracker after week 2 (an explanation of the “five factors” is at the bottom of the page).

Tennessee Offense vs. Opponents’ Defense

Again, it’s early, but Oklahoma and Arkansas have not given up a ton of scoring opportunities (especially the Sooners) nor are they letting opponents have particularly high success rates (especially the Razorbacks). It looks like to this point Alabama, with a lot of scoring opportunities given up, but not many points per, is playing bend-but-don’t break. Meanwhile both Kentucky and Vanderbilt are giving up a lot of points on few scoring opportunities, which would be breaking without bending. And Florida is both bending and breaking, you love to see it.

Tennessee Defense vs Opponents’ Offense

Both Arkansas and Vandy have offenses running at absurdly high success rates that I cannot imagine them keeping all season—but if they do, they will be more dangerous than you expected them to be last month. Oklahoma is producing on offense despite a low success rate; it will be interesting to see if the success rate rises to meet the other offensive numbers, or if the success rate drags down the rest of the offensive output over time. And yes, that Kentucky offense is just as putrid as you heard it was.

What are the Five Factors?

There are five factors that are most predictive of success in college football. They are:

• finishing drives (shown in the chart as scoring opportunities—drives that get inside the opponent 40—and points per opportunity),

• efficiency (measured by success rate—getting 50% of yards to go on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, and converting on 3rd/4th down),

• explosiveness (average predicted points added on successful plays),

• starting field position, and

• turnovers (I use havoc rate—percentage of plays that are a sack, tackle for loss, pass breakup, or turnover—because it’s a super cool stat).