Tennessee Football Five Factor Tracker Post-Week 3

With nearly 1/3 of the season behind us, teams are starting to take shape...

Still too early to draw definite conclusions about these teams, but they are starting to take shape. We will know a lot more over the coming weeks as SEC play ramps up, but consider the fact that after Saturday, Tennessee’s season will be 1/3 of the way complete!

Tennessee Defense vs. Opponents’ Offense

• Still early, but if you had Arkansas and Vandy as being two of the top four opponents on Tennessee’s schedule at generating scoring opportunities on your bingo card, forget about the bingo and head to Vegas.

• Alabama and Georgia have offenses that are humming right along. Great.

Tennessee Offense vs. Opponents’ Defense

• NC State and Kent State have bad numbers because they aren’t very good teams, but also because they’ve had to play the Vols. UT is leaving a trail of destruction; it’s like that grim reaper going door-to-door meme.

• If Florida and Arkansas could find a defense, they might not be half bad.

• Ditto for Kentucky and offense.

What are the Five Factors?

There are five factors that are most predictive of success in college football. They are:

• finishing drives (shown in the chart as scoring opportunities—drives that get inside the opponent 40—and points per opportunity),

• efficiency (measured by success rate—getting 50% of yards to go on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, and converting on 3rd/4th down),

• explosiveness (average predicted points added on successful plays),

• starting field position, and

• turnovers (I use havoc rate—percentage of plays that are a sack, tackle for loss, pass breakup, or turnover—because it’s a super cool stat).