Tennessee 28, Kentucky 18: Advanced Box Score
It's still our Barrel
It was at times frustrating, but Tennessee dispensed with Kentucky once again on Saturday night, 28-18. The Vols overcame a slow start for the 4th straight game and for the eighth time this year (and ninth time overall) held their opponent under 20 on the scoreboard.
Five Factor Box Score
Once again, Tennessee created a ton of scoring opportunities. Once again, most of those opportunities were wasted. It’s frustrating, but you can see how close the offense is to breaking open. Maybe it will happen this season, maybe they’ll continue scuffling through the back end of the season. This was the best success rate against a real opponent for Tennessee this season—57% is pretty incredible. Imagine how much better the explosiveness and PPO would look if three potential TD passes had not been dropped (not to mention the three missed field goals).
Defensively, outside of a few big runs and an eye-popping TD catch (followed by an equally eye-popping 2-point conversion catch) by UK’s Ja’Mori Maclin, Tennessee kept the Wildcats’ offense pretty well hemmed up. The havoc rate wasn’t outstanding, but was there when it was needed, notably a thunderous sack by James Pearce:
… and ANOTHER incredible INT (nearly a pick-6) from Will “coldest white boy on the block” Brooks:
Rushing Report
I’m working on a more in-depth post about the offensive line’s role in both the offense’s woes and the team’s overall success so far this season. Some will disagree with this, but the OL has been, for the most part, a very physical unit. There have been missed assignments and there is a painful lack of skill in the pass protect game. But the results are there, and while the RBs have been a part of that too, the OL’s production has been among the best in the league:
3rd in SEC in Power Success Rate (converting on 3rd/4th and short)
1st in SEC in Stuff Rate (not getting stopped at or behind the line)
1st in SEC in Line Yards Per Rush (line yards=the first 4 yards of a run)
2nd in SEC/9th nationally in Total Line Yards
One the other hand, the Vols are only middle of the pack in the SEC when it comes to Second Level Yards and Open Field Yards. That means they’re doing a good job of creating a push at the line, but not a great job at springing longer runs. It’s a fair criticism, but still doesn’t speak to my original point about the physical nature of this unit being a hallmark—one that was evident in the record-breaking Dylan Sampson touchdown in which every member of the offense joined in pushing Sampson into the Checkerboards.
Player Usage and PPA
To give you a sense of how big the loss of Barion Brown was for UK, Brown accounted for 5% of Kentucky’s offense overall and 10% of the pass game despite leaving in the 1st quarter with what appeared to be a rib injury.
That’s enough to keep Brown in the top five Cats by usage, despite not playing the vast majority of the game. Clearly UK had big plans for Brown on the night.
Once again, Tennessee holds at least one opposing QB to negative PPA (the eighth time in the last nine games).
This was, by far, Nico’s best game against actual competition. Imagine how nice his numbers would’ve looked with those dropped TDs added.
Dylan Sampson was once again hampered by an early fumble deep in opposing territory. I believe these fumbles are flukes, but with the struggles the offense already faces, they don’t need their most reliable player giving the ball away.
Didn’t see Peyton Lewis being 10% of the offense but I’m here for it. Lewis showed some flashes of being the dude sooner rather than later.
Also didn’t see Miles Kitselman being 15% of the passing game but again can’t argue with it—he earns those targets through his work in the run game.
Extraneous
Before wrapping this post up, I want to comment on the narrative being floated on social media by Kentucky fans and others clutching their pearls over Vol fans booing injured players.
First, I understand Kentucky fans’ sensitivity over this. The Cats entered the game with several key players injured, and lost both their starting QB and star WR to legitimate injury during the game. I agree Tennessee fans should not be booing opposing offensive players who are injured, since most of the time there is no motivation to fake those injuries (I’d further argue that I think very few Vol fans are booing at those times).
However, ever since Josh Heupel arrived and implemented an up-tempo offense at Tennessee in 2021, teams have repeatedly and egregiously faked injury against the Vols in order to slow down the offense. This includes an Alabama coach shoving a player onto the field just a week ago in order to stop the clock. It has become so ridiculous that the SEC had to implement an impromptu policy to address the practice in the middle of the season.
At this point we’re numb to seeing your players fall over like a sniper shot them just to hop up and jog off 10 seconds later. Unless the middle linebacker’s head falls off, we’re probably going to assume the “injury” is fake—because 90% of the time it is. So if you want to bemoan Tennessee fans mocking “injuries” during games, first point the finger at the opposing coaches who have made a mockery of injuries over the past four years.