Off Frustrating Losses, Vols and Cats Look to Get Right This Week
IFTIT, Beer Barrel Edition: Tennessee vs. Kentucky Football Preview 2025
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Both Tennessee (#17/17, 5-2, 2-2 SEC) and Kentucky (NR/NR, 2-4, 0-4 SEC) went into their games last weekend as two-score underdogs (UT getting +8.5 points against Alabama and the Cats +12.5 vs. Texas). Both Tennessee and Kentucky lost. Not necessarily surprising outcomes, but the way each team got there might raise some eyebrows.
Tennessee was supposed to be in a shootout with Bama, yet only mustered 20 points. The Tide held up their end of the deal with 37. But only kinda: nine of those points were gifted to Alabama by UT’s offense. In fact, for as much as they’ve been maligned this week, the 28 points allowed by Tennessee’s defense was the fewest allowed by the Vols in an SEC game this year. UT outgained Alabama in total yards, rushing yards—heck, DeSean Bishop outrushed Alabama by himself. It was a weird game that in many ways felt closer than the final score indicated.
Kentucky also outgained their opponent in a losing effort. In fact they did so spectacularly: over 200 yards of offense separated UK and the Longhorns, and Kentucky held Texas to just 55 yards on the ground. But the Cats needed a last-minute field goal just to send the game into OT, where they lost despite having the ball 1st-and-goal from the three yard line when a TD would’ve won the game. Frustrating, disappointing losses both. Who gets right this week?
Previously on Vols vs. Wildcats
Tennessee beat Kentucky 28-18 last season in Neyland. It was a somewhat ho-hum game looking back statistically, but it did give us one of my favorite plays of the 2024 season: Dylan Sampson breaking the single-season school rushing TD record with everyone pushing Sampson into the endzone.
Tennessee has played Kentucky 120 times, and beaten the Cats 85 times, both the high-water mark against all opponents.
Five Factor Preview
The JAR Rating hates Kentucky. Loathes entirely—especially the offense. I’ve said all along that JAR is a process, not a product. Other ratings like SP+, which has the Cats’ offense at #79, or FEI at #86, are much more refined systems. But it’s all just numbers in the end, and the numbers say UK’s offense is pretty bad. Whether Kentucky has just a bottom-half offense or a bottom-third offense might be splitting hairs. The point is it’s hard to find anything they are good at. That’s welcome news for a Tennessee defense that has struggled to perform anywhere near the level they played at last year. Specifically, Tennessee’s 4.8 points per scoring opportunity allowed is a liability. They are a unit that has lost the ability to bend without breaking. Hopefully this Kentucky offense
Personnel & Matchups
Slight change I’ve made to these charts: filled in circles now indicate that the player has started every game so far. Previously they indicated returning starters, but half way through the season it doesn’t really matter anymore if you started last year.
Oddly, the one player that hasn’t started every game for Tennessee’s offense is Chris Brazzell, as UT started the ETSU game with two TEs and Matthews/Staley at WR.
Speaking of TEs, Jack Van Dorselaer and DeSaahn Brame have been getting more snaps lately. It will be interesting to see how UT uses the freshmen going forward.
Another position group that has seen more rotation than usual is the OL. It is important to find a group that gels up front, and midseason might not be the best time to be looking for that cohesion. But it is obvious that David Sanders needs to be on the field more so some degree of rotation is inevitable.
Of note for UK, the defense is substantially better than the offense.
LB Alex Afari is the centerpiece of the defense, and one of the SEC’s best tacklers.
Already discussed these units to some degree, so instead I want to talk about
Mark Stoop’s career and recent coach effect. Remember that coach effect gives a +1 when a less-talented team beats a more-talented team, and a -1 when the opposite is true. Stoops is an outstanding +15 for his career. That is helped by Kentucky often being the less-talented team, so many of their wins are eligible for a +1. However, Stoops was -1 last season, and just +2 over the last three years. But the talent level in Lexington has risen during Stoops’ tenure. So it seems that Stoops’ results are the opposite of what you’d expect—and he weirdly somehow does better with lesser teams. It could also mean the end is near for Stoops at Kentucky, as whatever magic was there early in his career seems to be running out.
Prediction
It’s easy to be a little squeamish about this one after each team’s performance last week. Does Tennessee keep shooting themselves in the foot? Does Kentucky shut down the Vols like they did the Longhorns? There’s also the Josh Heupel road curse, if you believe in that; and if you do, last week’s game wouldn’t check that box as it wasn’t a game Tennessee was supposed to win.
But if that were to happen, it would be by far the worst loss in Heupel’s tenure, from a coach effect standpoint. There is a far greater talent ggaap between these team than what Tennessee had against South Carolina in ‘22, Missouri in ‘23, or Arkansas last year. It’s even the biggest talent gap between these two teams this decade. There just isn’t precedent for Tennessee losing a game like this. Vols 47, Cats 23
Extraneous
This isn’t a novel idea, but it needs to be repeated by everyone until it happens. It’s time to bring back the Beer Barrel. It went away for a legitimate reason. But be real here: both teams sell alcohol in their stadiums. And even if the idea is still deemed off-putting or bad optics, “Beer” could be dropped from the title and just “Battle for the Barrel.” The SEC itself should be pushing for this; they deemed the rivalry important enough to protect under the coming nine-game conference schedule era. The conference needs to push for the Barrel’s return for marketing purposes and to honor one of the SEC’s oldest annual contests.