IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Basketball Preview 2025
Can the Vols Bounce Back Against a Surging State Squad?
Recently
Tennessee (#6 AP, 16-2, 3-2 SEC) trailed Vanderbilt by 16 points before pulling it to within a missed free throw of forcing overtime; ultimately falling to the Commodores 70-71.
Meanwhile Mississippi State (#14 AP, 15-3, 3-2 SEC) actually did go to overtime and survived against Ole Miss in Starkville, winning 84-81.
Previously on Vols vs. Bulldogs
Tennessee lost twice to MSU in 2024, once in Starkville on Jan. 10 (72-77) and then in a stinker of a game to open and close the Vols’ SEC Tournament in Nashville (56-73). Despite those losses UT has won seven of the last 10 against State and 15 of the last 20, with an all-time lead of 90-46 in the series.
This game will mark the first time in series history that Tennessee and Mississippi State have faced off with both teams being ranked.
Preview
Bullets
MSU has beaten ranked teams three times this season (#18 Pitt on Dec. 4, #21 Memphis on Dec. 21, and #21 Ole Miss on Jan. 18), the first time State has beaten three ranked teams in a season.
State is 14-2 this season and 40-9 under Chris Jans when scoring 70 or more points. (IMO this is a key stat)
MSU is 7-1 this season when SR F #4 Cameron Matthews has 5+ steals, and 6-0 when Matthews has 5+ assists.
6’10 JR F #3 KeShawn Murphy doesn’t start for the Bulldogs, but has been a key piece of State’s success as one of the top rebounders in the league.
MSU is 7-1 this seasons when Murphy leads State in rebounding, and 8-1 when Murphy scores 10+ points.
State leads the SEC in point in the paint with 39.7 per game.
Prediction
The problem with losing at Vandy Saturday is the pressure it puts on the rest of the conference road games this season. There are nine road games in a SEC season, so you’d ideally like to go 5-4 or better—the “or better” being highly unlikely. So now, with two road losses already, you’ve got to win at least two of at Auburn, at Kentucky, at Texas A&M, and/or at Ole Miss, and then you’ve got to not slip up at Oklahoma (who statistically has the greatest home court advantage in the SEC according to Kenpom) or LSU. Not impossible, but incredibly difficult. More difficult than it needs to be just because you couldn’t find a couple more points in Nashville.
What does that have to do with this game against Mississippi State, which is not a road game? Well, now that a winning road record is less than likely, the home schedule also has more pressure on it. For one, you’ve got to make up for those losses with wins on the overall record. Also, you can’t let another conference contender who you’re fighting for seeding against steal a road win at your place. And specifically in this situation, Tennessee is staring at what will be an incredibly difficult trip to Auburn on Saturday. If the Vols drop this one, they could be sitting at 3-4 in the SEC with a mounting losing streak at this time next week.
The good news is that the Vanderbilt games looks like as much of an anomaly for UT’s defense as the Florida game was for UT’s offense. Against the ‘Dores, Tennessee had their worst Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (number of points allowed per 100 possessions) of the season at 110.5. In three of five SEC games, the ADJDE has been in the 80s, as it was in the Vols’ biggest non-conference wins against Baylor and Illinois. It would be stunning to see Tennessee pull a number that bad again, especially at home.
Couple that with MSU’s desire to score in the paint and Tennessee’s skill at keeping teams from doing just that—UT holds teams to just 49.5% on “close twos” (top 20 nationally and 2nd-best in the SEC)—you’ve got to feel like Tennessee has the edge here if they can just pull out an average defensive effort. You’ve also got to feel like Rick Barnes won’t accept anything less on Tuesday night. Vols 73, Mississippi State 65.