IHTIT: Tennessee Vols at Texas Longhorns Basketball Preview 2025

Horns Down, Chaz Up

Jan 10, 2025

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Hahaha nope.

Texas (NR, 11-4, 0-2 SEC) lost to #2 Auburn at home 82-87 on Tuesday night. That was, to my knowledge, the only SEC basketball game played Tuesday.

Previously on Vols vs. Horns

No. 2 seed Tennessee beat 7th-seeded Texas 62-58 in the second round of last year’s NCAA tournament. It was the third meeting between Rick Barnes’ Vols and his former school, with the good guys holding a 2-1 lead in those games. The Vols have a 5-4 overall lead in the series all-time, but this will be just the third-ever meeting in Austin, where the previous games have split 1-1.

Of course Rick Barnes is the winningest coach in Texas history, going 402-180 (.691%) from 1998-99 through 2014-15. Texas head coach Rodney Terry spent nine seasons as an assistant to Barnes, a fact you will likely be bludgeoned with during the broadcast Saturday night.

Paper Bullets of the Brain

After Florida got their first-ever home win against a #1 team by beating Tennessee Tuesday, Texas could get their first-ever win against an AP #1 team by beating Tennessee Saturday.
The Longhorns are 0-12 all-time against AP #1s. Tennessee is 14-3 all-time as #1.
The Vols have won two of their first three SEC games in five of the last six years (‘21-’22 is the outlier).
SR F #6 Arthur Kaluma posted career highs in points (34), FG made (12/16) and 3-point FGs made (5/6) along with 8 boards, 2 assists and 2 blocks against Auburn.
FR G #20 Tre Johnson has scored double-digits in 12 of 13 games this season, scoring 18.4 PPG on 46% shooting. As Texas’ main scoring threat in the backcourt, he will likely be guarded by Jahmai Mashack.
You might remember GR G #12 Tramon Mark from his role at Arkansas last year, where he lead the Razorbacks in scoring (16.2 PPG), steals (36) and assists (57). For his career, Mark has scored in double digits 63 times and topped 20 points 16 times.
SR G #1 Julian Larry and JR G #2 Chendall Weaver will also play big roles for Texas off the bench, as all four staring guards split time nearly evenly.

Prediction

Before Tuesday night, I believed Tennessee would lose on the road to Florida and win on the road to Texas. However, after Tennessee basically no-showing in Gainesville and Texas never giving up against Auburn, can the Vols still pull out a tough road win at Austin?

Understand that Texas is good. But they are not on the level of Florida. Texas is top-50 in both Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency. Florida is top-5 in Off. Eff. and top-15 in Def. Eff.. That’s a different level. Going to Gainesville was always going to be more difficult than going to Austin.

Texas can be a dangerous 3-point shooting team, #8 nationally in 3P%. However, that plays into a Tennessee strength (the Vols are #1 against the three nationally), and Texas doesn’t really take advantage of their own good shooting from behind the arc with just 35.9% of their shots and 30.2% of their points coming from 3 (national averages are 39.3% and 31.4%).

Texas is also a pretty good defensive team, but, there’s the rub. The game won’t likely be decided by Texas’ defense, but by Tennessee’s offense. The Vols shooting against Florida was putrid—like all-time worst ever performance. It nearly defied physics: at one point a three from the top of the key hit the side of the backboard. You’d expect to make a higher percentage of shots by simply randomly slinging the ball in the direction of the hoop.

Will Tennessee have that sort of shooting outing again? It’s not likely. If they do, It won’t matter who the competition is. If they play to at least their average, then they can certainly go on the road and win against even a good Texas team. Keep in mind too that Tennessee didn’t lose back-to-back SEC games in last year’s regular season. Rick Barnes knows how to keep a team from costing him two games. Vols 72, Horns 66.