IHTIT: Tennessee Vols at Illinois Fighting Illini Basketball Preview 2024

It's HOOPS Time in Tennessee

Recently

Tennessee (#1 AP/#1 Coaches’, 9-0, 0-0 SEC) played a game in Madison Square Garden, and the scored got out of the 50s? It’s a Christmas miracle. The Vols beat Miami 75-62 in the Jimmy V Classic.

Also on Tuesday, Illinois (RV, 7-2, 1-1 Big 10) bounced back from a conference-opening OT loss to Northwestern by beating Wisconsin 86-80. This will be the Illini’s third game against an SEC opponent this season, losing to Alabama on Nov. 20, but beating Arkansas 90-77 on November 28.

Previously on Vols vs. Illini

This will be the fifth all-time meeting between the schools, with Tennessee holding a 3-1 lead in the series. All three Vol wins have come in Knoxville, including an 86-79 win over the Illini last December. Tennessee’s lone loss against Illinois came in Champaign, 79-103 in the 1987-88 season.

Matchup Card

Prediction

As of today, the only road games Tennessee has against higher-rated (Kenpom) teams are at Florida Jan. 7, at Auburn Jan. 25, and at Kentucky Feb. 11. That is to say, this will be one of the three or four hardest true road games UT plays this season. Even at that, Kenpom has the Vols with a 61% chance of winning—a testament to how good UT has been this season.

Illinois relies on the 3 more than any other major-conference team other than Louisville, with 52.1% of the Illini’s shots coming from behind the arc. For reference, the national average is 39.5% of a team’s shots being threes, and Tennessee’s average is 43.2%. With perhaps the most talented and deep roster in Brad Underwood’s tenure, the Illini are deep and talented, led by freshmen who are already playing like upperclassmen. If Illinois get hot from 3 and/or obvious matchup problem 7’1 Tomislav Ivisic takes over, it could be a rough outing for the Vols. But defense travels, and UT has defended the 3 at a top-10 rate so far, despite teams regularly trying to rely on the 3 against UT. Vols 76-Illinois 72.