IHTIT: Tennessee Vols at Auburn Tigers Basketball Preview 2025
Can the Vols find a way to take down #1 on the road?
Recently
Tennessee (#6 AP, 17-2, 4-2 SEC) beat Mississippi State 68-56 Tuesday night, led by Chaz Lanier’s 23 points and Zakai Zeigler’s 7 assists and 5 steals.
Auburn (#1 AP, 17-1, 5-0 SEC) last played on Saturday, narrowly beating Georgia 70-68. It was the second game in a row the Tigers were missing star F Johni Broome, and it remains to be seen if Broome will be on the court for Auburn Saturday against UT.
Previously on Vols vs. Tigers
Dalton Knecht dropped 39 points in leading Tennessee against Auburn a year ago in Knoxville, with the Vols winning 92-84. It was just UT’s 3rd win in the last 10 games against the Tigers despite Tennessee owning a robust 81-45 lead in the series all-time. The Vols have won three of the last five meetings, but all three of those wins came in Knoxville, where the Vols have a 51-9 record all-time against the Tigers. AU has a 23-31 record against Tennessee in Auburn, where the Vols have not won since 2017.
Of course the more prominent history in this series is with Bruce Pearl, who coached UT to a 161-45 record from 2005-2011, and whom the Vols have faced 17 times—more than any active coach other than Calipari, Pitino, or Frank Martin.
Preview
Bullets
If Broome is unavailable, SR F #31 Chaney Johnson, who has started the last two games. Johnson has shot 8/19 from the field in relief of Broome, but shot just 1/9 against Georgia after a torrid shooting night of 7/9 against Mississippi State.
Johnson also has 14 rebounds and five blocks in those two games.
Tennessee is 6-15 all-time against #1 AP teams. The majority of those are against Kentucky.
The Vols are 5-4 against #1 teams that aren’t Kentucky.
Tennessee is 4-4 in its last 8 against #1s, dating back to Bruce Pearl’s 2008 win at #1 Memphis.
Prediction
Bart Torvik has UT with a 17% win probability. Kenpom gives the Vols a 23% chance. ESPN is most generous, with Tennessee having a whopping 26% win probability according to their matchup predictor.
Sure. I’ll play along. How does Tennessee beat Auburn? Well, there’s just one blueprint for it this season, an 84-76 Duke win at Cameron Indoor. The Blue Devils held Auburn to their 3rd-lowest Free Throw Rate of the season at just 18.3%. Duke also shot incredibly well, with a 57.8% Effective Field Goal rate (the highest Auburn has allowed) while shooting 20/36 from 2 (also the highest Auburn has allowed) and taking care of the ball with a 6.4% Turnover Rate (the lowest against the Tigers all year). Auburn’s other closest games this season—a three-point win against South Carolina and the two-point UGA win—saw the Tigers show similar weaknesses, but not to the level of success Duke found. Georgia also held Auburn to their worst 2P shooting night of the season (14/38), but that’s something that Broome’s presence would likely solve.
So can Tennessee approach Duke’s success against the Tigers? The Vols have turned in 50+% EFG shooting games the last two times out—although one of those was in the loss to Vandy. And the Vols can probably keep Auburn’s shooting inside the arc under control (especially if Broome isn’t available or is limited). Tennessee is the nation’s 2nd-best team at EFG% allowed (423.%) and a top-20 team in Free Throw Rate allowed (24.9%). It looks like many of the notes Duke played could be hit by the Vols as well.
However, it’s the turnover rate where UT will struggle. For as great as Zakai Zeigler has been this year, he hides a really high turnover rate (24%) with a lot of steals and assists. It will likely take an uncharacteristically careful game from Zeigler to give the Vols a chance on the Plains.
Much more likely is that Tennessee will lose this game. The earlier you make your peace with it, the less angry you’ll be when it happens. What’s really important is how Tennessee finishes over the next three games as a set. The Vols have a home stand against Kentucky and Florida on deck for next week. A 2-1 record out of those three games would be a win. Anything less and UT will be sitting under .500 through the first half of SEC play. As for this game, Tennessee 67, Auburn 76 seems like a reasonable guess.