IHTIT: Tennessee Vols at Arkansas Razorbacks Basketball Preview 2025
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Tennessee (#1 AP, 13-0, 0-0 SEC) finished 2024 with an unblemished non-conference record. The final game came in a 67-52 against a gamey Norfolk State squad; a game that Tennessee never felt in danger of losing, but also felt more struggle-y than you’d like.
Under the leadership of new head coach John Calipari, Arkansas (#23 AP, 11-2, 0-0 SEC) dropped two games in the non-con portion of the schedule, both to teams Tennessee has beaten this season (Baylor and Illinois). The Razorbacks are riding a six-game win streak though, with a win over common opponent Miami, and a nice 2-point win over Kenpom #10 Michigan.
Previously on Vols vs. Hogs
Tennessee’s won three in a row and seven of the last 10 against Arkansas. The three UT losses came in Fayetteville, the last in 2022. Tennessee won 92-63 at Bud Walton Arena, the first win for Tennessee at Arkansas in 15 years. Thanks to the three-game win streak, Tennessee has an overall 26-22 lead in the series all-time, including 16-4 at home. The Vols are just one of three SEC teams with an all-time lead over Arkansas (Kentucky and Florida being the other two). Arkansas HC John Calipari is 22-16 all-time against UT, and 9-9 in TBA.
Advanced Stats & Matchups
Paper Bullets of the Brain
Jonas Aidoo would not qualify as one of Arkansas’ top 3 players this season, but I gave you his stats because you’re curious. Admit it. I was curious too.
SG DJ Wagner would be the third Razorback in the graphic without Aidoo. Wagner was the #6 prospect in the 2023 recruiting class.
PG Boogie Fland is 3rd in the SEC in points produced, and 2nd in the SEC in assists/game with 6.2, behind Zakai Zeigler’s 8.1.
PF Adou Thiero is top-50 nationally in effective FG% and 2-point FG%.
Arkansas is 3-11 all-time against the AP #1 team—incredibly enough two of those wins came in 2022 (vs. Auburn, vs. Gonzaga [Sweet 16])
Calipari is 6-5 all-time against AP #1, with almost all of those on neutral courts. Cal is 1-0 against #1 Tennessee, a
Prediction
The SEC schedule is going to be brutal. Every game is a Quad 1 game. There are upcoming road games against Florida, Texas, and Auburn, as well as a trip to Nashville and America’s Worst Gym (TM). And that’s just January. There’s no way UT comes out of the month clean. There will be a loss along the way—and possibly more than one. Adjust your expectations accordingly.
That does not mean UT isn’t a good team—they’re really good, perhaps Rick Barnes’ most complete Vols team thus far (although with practically no depth). But the SEC schedule is going to be a gauntlet, especially on the road. Nobody will come out unbruised. That makes holding serve at home imperative. UT will win this game because they’re the better team, but also because they have to. Tennessee 74, Arkansas 62