IFTIT, TSIO: Tennessee Vols vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Preview 2024
You can't spell choose-your-own-adventure without UT
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Tennessee (#11 AP/#10 Coaches, 5-1, 2-1 SEC) and Alabama (#7/#7, 5-1, 2-1) have had nearly parallel seasons so far this year. Although Bama started the year with a much higher ranking than Tennessee, both teams worked their way into the top 5 by week 4, with the Tide sitting pretty at #1. Then disaster hit. Alabama went to Dudley Field and was shocked by a gamey Vanderbilt squad. Tennessee stumbled through a stunning defeat at Arkansas. But a bye week for each team would let them fix their problems, right? Well… maybe not. Alabama, as three-touchdown favorites against South Carolina last week, barely held off the Gamecocks; while Tennessee needed overtime to put away Florida despite coming into the game as a two-touchdown favorite. And now these two powerhouse teams struggling to find themselves do find themselves in a de facto playoff elimination game on the Third Saturday in October.
Previously on Vols vs. Tide
A year ago, Tennessee went to halftime in Tuscaloosa leading 20-7, having scored right before the break on what might have been the best throw in Joe Milton’s career. The lead wouldn’t last, with the Tide scoring 27 unanswered points in the second half to win 20-34.
It was the latest disappointment in a decade-plus of disappointing results for Vol fans in this series, broken up by 2022’s glorious triumph in Neyland. On one hand, it doesn’t feel like it was that long ago that Tennessee had won 10 of 12 in this series, and it wasn’t hard to do the math on when UT would finally take the lead in the all-time series. In reality, that was nearly two decades ago, and the idea now that Tennessee could ever possibly take a lead in the series—or even draw it close—seems ridiculous, with Alabama holding a 39-60-7 lead. However, now that Nick Saban has walked into the sunset, the game feels much more winnable regardless of the series history.
Five Factor Preview & Personnel
Tennessee Offense vs. Alabama Defense
All that green on UT’s side of the chart belies the struggles the offense has had since SEC play started. There has been a plethora of posts and videos popping up on social media this week trying to explain exactly what is going on with the Vols’ O: is it a coaching problem? an execution problem? a talent problem? Is the QB not seeing the field? are the WRs not getting separation? is the OL just bad? The issue is, yes, all of those things at different times have been the culprit. The OL isn’t always giving the QB time to process. When the QB is given time to process, the WRs aren’t winning routes. The play calling has seemed more vanilla than recent years, partly because the QB is young, and partly because he can’t play from a clean pocket. None of these things are a problem on every play, but any combination of factors might sink any given play. It’s a complicated Venn diagram of blame.
To complicate matters, there is the oft-overlooked fact that Tennessee’s roster is simply not as talented as many of the teams they’re facing. Going by the players’ ratings as recruits (which I’ll be the first to admit is not the only barometer to judge players by), the Vols’ roster is much more similar to Arkansas than it is to Alabama.
The good news is that Alabama’s roster way outclasses Vanderbilt’s (who they lost to) and South Carolina’s (who they struggled to beat at home). This isn’t Nick Saban’s Alabama anymore. It’s not the same defense that revolutionized how football is played over the last two decades. They’re still very good and highly talented. But you can see cracks in the armor. One good sign for the Vols is that Bama has given up a fairly high number of scoring opportunities so far this season. And although they’ve done a pretty good job of limiting the damage from those opportunities, the door is open there if Tennessee can find a few more explosive plays than they have in SEC play so far (imagine the difference in the Florida game if one or two deep balls are completed).
Alabama’s Que Robinson leads the Tide in sacks (3) and TFLs (7) and has the nation’s highest grade among edge rushers according to Pro Football Focus (90.5). Through six games, Alabama has forced 12 turnovers (six fumbles, six INTs), one of just 18 teams nationally and one of three SEC teams to have forced 12 turnovers this year (Tennessee has forced 9).
Tennessee Defense vs. Alabama Offense
This will be the strength-on-strength portion of the game. Tennessee has choked out opposing offenses, holding them to a paltry 1.89 points er scoring opportunity and a 33% success rate while creating a havoc play on right at a quarter of all snaps. Conversely, Alabama has an outstanding PPO and success rate. Tennessee really needs to take advantage of the fact that Alabama does just a middling job of preventing havoc plays. The Vols need to get into the Alabama backfield and get the Tide playing behind the sticks as much as possible.
Jalen Milroe is a problem. Unlike Nico, Milroe has quite a bit of seasoning, playing in seven games against AP top-25 opponents (and winning five of those games). In those games, Milroe has completed 67.8% of his passes (116-171) for 1,601 yards and 15 total touchdowns (nine passing, six rushing). His 11.23 yards per attempt is the highest in the country this season (top nationally) and over his career has averaged 35.9 yards per touchdown throw. Every one of Milroe’s 12 TD passes this season have been 16 yards or longer, and five of them came from 55-plus yards. On top of that, Milroe has rushed for 24 TDs in his career, with 11 of those this year—second-most among DI QBs and fifth-most among players of any position.
Oh, and then there’s freshman phenom Ryan Williams (he’s only 17, in case you didn’t know) who makes circus catch after circus catch. Hey, at least the Tide running hasn’t been spectacular, not yet anyway.
Prediction
Yes, this Alabama team lost to Vanderbilt. They struggled to put away South Carolina. Nick Saban isn’t coming out of that tunnel. They are vulnerable, beatable, probably more so than they have been at any time in the last decade or more.
But they aren’t automatic. This will be the best team Tennessee has faced in 2024. The Vols have struggled to beat lesser teams (and lost to one). The Tennessee offense has been spinning their wheels while the Alabama offense has been burning rubber. Even in losing to Vandy, the Tide scored 35 points. Tennessee hasn’t scored 30 in weeks.
At the same time, what will the Vols’ defense give up? They haven’t allowed 20 in a game so far. Think about that—with the explosiveness of modern offense, Tennessee has made it halfway through a season without allowing 20 points in a single game. General Neyland is somewhere shedding a tear at the beauty of it. Now there’s a real good chance that Bama crosses that threshold Saturday—but by how much? Do they score 24? 30? And can Tennessee match whatever Alabama does score?
Remember those Choose-Your-Own-Adventure books from when you were a kid? You’re in the woods and pass a cave with shouts coming from within. To go in the cave and investigate, turn to page 23. To go back to town and get help, turn to page 9. And then the story changes depending on which page you turn to? You might see this as a cop-out, but I’m going to give you two predictions based on what you think the Tennessee offense is going to do Saturday. If you think this is the game where the offense finally clicks into place, click here. If you think the offense continues to play as it has the last three games, click here.
Choose wisely, and Go Vols.