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It started off a little slow, but Tennessee (#14 AP/#13 Coaches’, 3-0, 0-0 SEC) snowballed their way to a blowout 42-9 victory over Kennesaw State on Saturday. It was the final out-of-conference tune-up game for the Vols, who enter the new nine-game SEC schedule is a fierce and sudden way with #1 coming to town.
This touched on in the Advanced Box Score post, but Texas (#1/#1, 3-0, 0-0 SEC) also sputtered in their final warm-up game, beating UTSA 30-6. Considering Tennessee was coming off a big road win against Georgia Tech, and the Longhorns were coming off their stunning 24-23 comeback win against Ohio State, both teams might have been guilty of a little look-ahead to this week’s marquee matchup.
Previously on Vols vs. Horns
This will be the first regular-season game between the schools and the first not played in Dallas. Tennessee and Texas last met in the 1969 Cotton Bowl, a game won by the Longhorns 36-13. Texas also won the 1953 Cotton Bowl against UT, 16-0. Tennessee trailed Texas 14-7 going into the 1951 Cotton Bowl’s 4th quarter, but scored the final 13 points of the game to win 20-14 on the back of Hank Lauricella’s 131 rushing yards.
Of course Josh Heupel is very familiar with the Longhorns from his days at Oklahoma, going 1-1 in the Red River Shootout as a player, and 7-4 against Texas as a coach. In the 2000 OU victory, Heupel led the Sooners to touchdowns on their first five drives and finished the game with 275 yards passing.
Preamble
Before we get into anything about matchups, personnel, etc., I think it’s important to understand something. You might think that Texas is overrated, you might think Steve Sarkisian is overrated. You might think Arch Manning gets hyped on name alone. I might agree with you on some of that. The fact is, the team ranked as #1 in the AP poll wins 86% of the time. It doesn’t mean the #1 team is infallible or unbeatable. But #1 usually wins. They’re supposed to win. If Tennessee pulls this off Saturday, it will have been against the odds.
Tennessee is 2-16 all-time against #1 teams, having last beat the AP #1, Auburn, in 1985 when Bo Jackson decided he didn’t want any more and took himself out of the game. A record of 2-16 seems paltry, but when compared to other programs’ records, seems about normal. The rather disgusting fact is that there is only one FBS team with a winning record against AP #1s, and it’s Alabama. I found this from 2024:
The more you look at the list, the more you realize how Alabama is an outlier. Other than the Tide, there is no real correlation between general historical success and success against #1-ranked teams. Miami has a pretty good 9-10 record. But some of the winningest teams of all time, like Michigan and Nebraska, have just a few wins against #1 combined. Yet somehow Purdue has a 7-11 record in those games. Kentucky has the same number of wins against #1 as Florida does, and more than Tennessee, LSU, or Georgia (UGA’s 2-6 record against #1 is a real testament to how the Dawgs schedule BTW—could someone make them leave the Peach State once in a while, please?). Oregon has never beat a #1, but Oregon State has, and Boston College has more wins against #1 than the whole states of Iowa and North Carolina do combined.
I think you get the point. #1 wins a lot, and on the rare occasion that they lose, there’s no historic predictor of who will beat them. For your own sanity, keep in mind that Tennessee isn’t supposed to win Saturday. This game is the epitome of “high emotion, low expectations.”
Now peep this:
This week’s JAR moves Tennessee up to #7, just a couple of spots below Texas at #5. And while the model does predict a 27-29 loss for the Vols, it has upgraded the game from a sure Tennessee loss to a toss-up.
Five Factor Preview
There are five factors that most highly correlate with winning football games. The Five Factor Tracker gives you a visualization of those factors and their underlying statistics.
Generally, if you’re looking for where an edge might be found in a football game look where one team has a green-shaded number (meaning they are good at that thing) opposite their opponent’s red-shaded number (meaning they are bad at that thing).
A couple of areas that standout to me. Texas has not been a particularly explosive team, especially in the running game. And starting RB Hollywood Smothers was listed as questionable on the initial injury report for the week. If the Vols can force the game onto the arm of Arch Manning, they might also be able to continue creating havoc at a high rate; especially with the front seven, where Texas has struggled to prevent havoc plays.
Personnel & Matchups
Not gonna lie, the Longhorn defense is spooky. There’s a lot of dude dudes on that side of the ball, and it will be by far the stiffest test Faizon Brandon has had in his young career. It will also be a test for Tennessee’s offensive line, which has played well thus far but certainly shown room for improvement as well.
Similar test for the Tennessee defense against a supremely talented Texas offense. Of course you know about Arch Manning, but his receiving corps will cause problems for the back end of Jim Knowles’ defense. Can the Tennessee DC find ways to generate pressure against a Texas OL that looks like a future NFL squad?
Prediction
There’s a reason Texas is #1. There’s not a better win in this young college football season than the Longhorns’ comeback against Ohio State two weeks ago. Texas has an incredibly talented squad and they’ve shown it on the field in a way that most teams haven’t had a chance to yet.
But sometimes that’s all you need: a chance. Tennessee is not supposed to win Saturday. If they do, it will have been against the odds. It’s possible that Tennessee suffers the same fate they did against Ohio State in the playoffs a couple of years ago and simply get overwhelmed by a team with superior talent. However, Josh Heupel’s squad has had success against teams like Alabama and Florida who enjoyed a talent advantage. A lot of the numbers I’ve shared in this post show that Texas is really good, but they also show that Tennessee is good as well. The Vols haven’t been tested like Texas has thus far, but sometimes all you need is a chance.
There’s also something that is hidden in the numbers I’ve shared. JAR basically tries to estimate how teams would fare against each other on a neutral field. The JAR estimate of the score is a 27-29 Vols loss. But Neyland is not a neutral field. There’s another iteration of JAR that adds the conventionally assumed +3 to the home team’s score.
So I’m saying there’s a chance. Tennessee 30, Texas 29.
Extraneous
