IFTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Oklahoma Sooners Football Preview 2025
It's the First of the Month, so Cry Havoc and Come On
Recently
Tennessee (#14/14, 6-2, 3-2 SEC) and Oklahoma (#18/18, 6-2, 2-2 SEC) had very different games last Saturday. The Vols went to Lexington and led wire-to-wire in a blowout 56-34 drubbing of the Wildcats. Earlier in the day, Oklahoma trailed Ole Miss from the jump, but rallied for 16 3rd-quarter points and pushed ahead 26-25 at the end of that third period. The Sooners wouldn’t score again though, and fell to the Rebels 34-26.
Now Tennessee needs to keep building momentum for the home stretch of the season, while OKU needs to avoid losing their third game in their last four outings.
Previously on Vols vs. Sooners
A year ago Josh Heupel led his team back to his old stomping grounds and stomped his alma mater 25-15. It was a dominant day for the Tennessee defense, crying all kinds of havoc with three turnovers, three sacks, and 11 tackles for loss. It was an emotional win for Heupel, with the memorable clip in the locker room thanking his guys for “having a little something extra” for him. And it was a statement win for UT, who had only beaten the Sooners once before in the handful of games between the schools, and who needed the boost in what would become UT’s first playoff season.
Oklahoma leads the brief series 3-2, with this week’s game being the second meting in Knoxville (OU won in 2015). The teams split a pair of Orange Bowls (in 1939 and 1968) and split a pair of games in Norman (in 2014 and last year) as well.
Five Factor Preview
Of course the headline of the weekend is Tennessee’s offense vs. Oklahoma’s defense. Both are top-10 units by just about any metric. Specifically, the big boys up front should put on a show: OU’s 26% havoc rate leads the nation, bolstered by their #1 front-7 havoc rate of 19%. Tennessee allows just an 11% havoc rate and only 6% comes from up front.
In quite opposite roles, Tennessee’s defense and Oklahoma’s offense will limp into this one. Both units have suffered key injuries and each has struggled up to this point in the season. But it just might be which side can un-struggle itself better on Saturday that decides the outcome. The Vols have a good shot at doing just that, as UT has caused their own good bit of havoc, including 8 TFLs, a fumble and a pick-six last week. However, the 4.73 points per scoring opportunity the Vols give up have been an issue all year, as the defense has been more break than bend.
Personnel & Matchup
OU has just four offensive players who have started every game this season, as the Sooners have suffered quite a few injuries.
The OL in particular has several players out, many of whom have started games this season. Febechi Nwaiwu is the lone OU OL who has started every game this season.
And of course QB John Mateer has played about half the season with half a hand, like Chubbs from Happy Gilmore. Mateer broke a bone in his throwing hand against Auburn on Sept. 24, but only missed one game following surgery, cutting in half the anticipated recovery time.
Also of note is HC Brent Venables’ Coach Effect of -13. By talent level, OU should be winning 10 games a year—but they’ve only done that once under Venables. Every other year they’ve lost 7, including last year when the Sooners beat Alabama for a +1 to Venables’ coach effect—and still finished the season at -5 coach effect.
For the Tennessee defense, Arion Carter is listed as questionable. Last week against Kentucky, UT started out with Edwin Spillman and Jadon Perlotte next to Jeremiah Telander in a 4-3 front. Regardless of Carter’s ability to go, I’d expect to see heavy doses of Spillman and Perlotte once again.
Don’t be fooled by the lack of consistent starts out of Oklahoma’s DL. That group is the star of the defense and can throw a ton of bodies at you.
For example, David Stone and Taylor Wein have started a total of five games for OU, but have combined for 18 TFLs this season.
DE R Mason Thomas leads the Sooners with 5.5 sacks on the year—Thomas against UT’s Lance Heard and David Sanders will be a prime match-up.
It’s not just the front either—the Cheetah back (think Tennessee’s Star position) Kendal Daniels has nine TFLs himself (Boo Carter and Jalen McMurray have combined for that many from the Star).
Joey Aguilar has thrown for 318 YPG in SEC games alone. Oklahoma has the SEC’s #1 pass defense, but that defense drops to #6 when you look at just conference games.
Oklahoma does give up just an average of 93.5 YPG rushing in SEC contests. Tennessee rushes for 154/game in SEC games.
Compare Josh Heupel’s coach effect to Venables’ and it seems Heupel does more with less, while the opposite can be said for the Sooners’ coach.
Prediction
Think about the ways this game could go. A shootout seems to favor Tennessee, as the Vols have the superior offense. A low-scoring game seems improbable—but that would favor the Vols too since that would have to mean that Tennessee’s weakness had suddenly become a strength. The lone outcome that would favor OU is a world where Tennessee just cannot get anything going on offense, and that seems to be the least likely of all scenarios. Can you really imagine Oklahoma coming in and shutting down the Vols offense while also scoring at will in Neyland? At Night?
That’s not to say the game will be easy for Tennessee. These teams are close enough for the game to be a toss-up on a neutral field. But this field will be far from neutral. This is exactly the kind of game that Tennessee has established as part of the brand under Josh Heupel. A normal night game already gets the Neyland crowd rowdy, but throw in Dark Mode and the atmosphere is going to be electric. Over the last four years, the only team that comes to Knoxville and negates the Neyland Effect is Georgia, and while this Oklahoma team is pretty good, they ain’t Georgia. I find it less likely that Brent Venables will find a way to copy UGA’s success in Neyland, and much more likely that Tennessee feeds off the home crowd enough to separate from the Sooners in the end. Vols 48, Oklahoma 40