IFTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. NC State Wolfpack (9/7/24)
It's Mayonnaise Time in Carolina
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Tennessee (#14 AP/#12 Coaches, 1-0, 0-0 SEC) made easy work of Chattanooga, winning 69-3. Nico Iamaleava set a school record with 314 passing yards in the first half, as the offense operated with speed and efficiency. Someone said this offense under Hendon Hooker was like driving a Porsche, and under Nico it’s like driving a Ferrari. So far, someone is right.
NC State (NR AP/#23 Coaches, 1-0, 0-0 ACC), meanwhile, did not have as easy time against their FCS opponent Western Carolina. The Catamounts led 21-17 going into the 4th quarter before the Wolfpack peeled off three TDs in the game’s final frame.
Previously on Vols vs. Wolfpack
This Duke’s Mayo shindig will be the fourth overall meeting between UT and NCSU, with the Vols holding a 2-1 edge so far. Oddly enough, this will be the second corporate-sponsored early-season kickoff-classic style meeting between the schools. In 2012 Tennessee beat the ‘Pack 35-21 in what looked to be Derek Dooley’s finest season in Knoxville. It was a coming-out party for Cordarrelle Patterson, and filled Vol fans with false optimism for the coming season. I mean, who could look at this:
and not ponder on what dreams may come? Of course, Dooley would be gone by the end of the 2012 season, and the age of Butch would upon us—again, full of false hopes. But take heart, orange faithful, these are not the Vols of a decade ago.
Five Factor Preview
Data based on just one game, and that against FCS schools, is not super reliable. But here we go:
You’ve got to feel pretty good about Tennessee creating a ton of scoring opportunities and NC State giving up at least enough to push them into the pink. If Western Carolina can generate scoring opps, I feel like Nico and the boys can too. It’s all about finishing the drive like they did against the Mocs.
It’s unlikely that Tennessee can be as stingy against NCSU as they were against Chattanooga, but it will be interesting to see how the Vols’ defense stands up to a much stiffer challenge than they saw in the opener. I like that 24% havoc rate given up by NC St. If the Catamounts can force a havoc play on nearly every set of downs, the I like Tennessee’s chances.
Two-Deep Comparison
I’m just gonna straight up say it, I don’t think NC State has the dudes on defense to keep up with Tennessee. I don’t think they have the speed on the perimeter, and I don’t think they are stout enough up front. MLB Cade Fordham was ejected for targeting just a couple minutes into the game against WCU, which likely had an effect on the Wolfpack defense, but just as likely won’t be enough to keep NC State’s defense in this game.
If the Wolfpack is going to challenge Tennessee, it will be by keeping pace in a shootout. The WR room is as good as it gets, with KC Concepcion, Noah Rogers, and Dacari Collins all having next-level speed. We saw Justin Joly last year when he was the lone bright spot on the UConn team Tennessee whipped for homecoming. And RB Jordan Waters took a minute to get going in the opener, but broke out on a 50-yard run that salted the game away. Then there’s QB Grayson McCall, who looked shaky for most of that WCU game, but was all-conference for multiple years at Coastal Carolina, has thrown for over 10,000 yards in his career, and can be a dangerous runner when needed. Where I think Tennessee has a decided advantage is in the trenches. While the Wolfpack gave up only one sack against the Catamounts, they also gave up nine TFLs. The much-ballyhooed Tennessee DL has a chance to put on a show Saturday night.
Prediction
Tennessee is a 7.5-point favorite with a 60.5 over/under. That would imply something like a final score of 34-27. I don’t see it. Nico Iamaleava looked like a 3-year veteran at QB Saturday. I understand the competition he was facing. And he might have a game that makes him look like a redshirt freshman this year. He almost has to. But that kid was spinning the ball so well against UTC—I don’t have a reason to think he won’t do it again this week. And that’s not to mention the WRs. Bru, Dont’e, Brazzell, Squirrel all looked imposing in the opener. Sampson ran with purpose and speed. The OL reset the scrimmage line all day. If the UT defense just has a pulse—and I think they’ll have much more than that—Tennessee will have people talking come Sunday morning. Tennessee 42, NC State 20 is my pick for Saturday night.
Extraneous
There is only one Wolfpac I recognize, and that’s because they are just tooo sweeet!
