IFTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview 2024

It's Homecoming Time in Tennessee

Nov 08, 2024

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Once again overcoming a slow start, and once again trailing at halftime, Tennessee (#7 CFP, 7-1, 4-1 SEC) pulled away from Kentucky in the second half to win 28-18 on a Dark Mode Saturday night. Then on Tuesday, Tennessee was ranked no. 7 in the initial College Football Playoff ranking of 2024. The Vols debuted behind no. 6 Penn State, despite the Nittany Lions having no wins against teams in the top 25. It was certainly the most surprising poll result from Tuesday involving the state of Pennsylvania.

Mississippi State (NR, 2-7, 0-5 SEC) picked up just their second win of 2024, 45-20 against UMass. It’s been a rough go for first-year head coach Jeff Lebby, who on top of being winless in the SEC so far has also suffered losses to Arizona State and Toledo (and that Toledo loss was a blowout to boot).

Previously on Vols vs. Bulldogs

It somehow feels like this happened another lifetime ago, but Tennessee beat Mississippi State 20-10 in 2019. The Vols came into the game 1-4 and winless in the SEC, but beating State would kickstart a mini-revival in Knoxville with the Vols winning six of their last seven games and going on to beat Indiana in the Gator Bowl.

In the overall series, UT leads 29-16-1 all-time. The Vols have won eight of the last 10 between the schools, although those 10 games stretch all the way back to 1991. Oddly enough, this will be the 22nd meeting between the schools in Knoxville, but the teams have only played in Starkville 10 times, with 16 meetings happing in Memphis between the series’ first game in 1907 and a 9-28 Tennessee loss to the Bulldogs in 1979.

Five Factor Preview & Personnel

Tennessee Offense vs. Miss State Defense

Let’s talk about explosiveness. I know these charts can seem a little obtuse sometimes so I’m going to try to simplify this: offenses want success rate and explosiveness to both be high numbers, and defenses want both numbers to be low. An offense with a high success rate but low explosiveness (like Tennessee) is moving the ball well enough, but not seeing big chunk plays. The offense feels very grindy and sometimes sluggish, but tends to somehow get the job done (sound familiar?). A defense with a high allowed success rate but low explosiveness (like MSU) is getting chewed up. They aren’t having a lot of busts or giving up chunk plays, but they’re not keeping the chains from moving and getting themselves off the field.

Tennessee’s offense will be successful against this Bulldog defense. MSU has the SEC’s worst defense and it’s not particularly close. State gives up 8.3 points per game more than the next-worse SEC defense, they give up 50 more rushing yards per game than the next-worse defense and they’ve allowed opposing QBs to complete 72% of their passes. The trick for Tennessee this week will be to see if the Vols can finally start hitting some truly explosive plays on multiple drives.

And for all their bad stats, this is a sneaky-tough defense to try and accomplish that feat against. MSU has given up more 10+ and 20+ yard plays than any other SEC team this year, but they move more toward the middle of the pack when you look at plays longer than that. They’ve only given up one more 50+ yard play than Georgia has. The Bulldogs average more plays per drive than any defense in the SEC. They can be ground to a powder—it’s happened to them all year. For my money, I’d rather seen them blown to dust by quick strikes instead.

MLB Stone Blanton and STAR Isaac Smith lead the SEC in tackles with 84 and 81 respectively. Not surprising that the team on the field for the most plays per drive would also that the statistical leaders in tackles.
Smith is the only SEC player to be averaging double-digit tackles this season. Blanton also has four games with double-digit tackles.
MSU held Texas to just 10 yards rushing in the first half when the two schools met on September 28. State trailed by just eight points going into the half before Texas pulled away in the 4th quarter.
The Bulldogs also had two sacks and seven TFLs against the Longhorns, both season highs for MSU.
JACK end Branden Jennings leads MSU in sacks (1.5) and TFLs (5).
The State defense has a takeaway in seven straight games.

Tennessee Defense vs. Miss State Offense

(That’s a lot of green on the Tennessee side.)

The Mississippi State offense has been marginally better than the defense. They are greatly improved from a year ago however, scoring early eight points per game more than they did in 2023. They’ve been able to score quickly: 12 of State’s 32 touchdowns have come in five plays or less, and those plays are often explosive. The Bulldogs have more plays of 10+, 20+, and 30+ yards than Tennessee does this season, and just as many 40+ yard plays. In fact, MSU has had 3 plays go for 70+ yards and an 80+ yarder, while the Vols do not have a single 70+ yard play on the year.

In general, MSU has racked up their points against their weakest competition. Averaging 51 points in wins against Eastern Kentucky and UMass, that average drops to 24.2 in SEC games (still better than Tennessee’s 22.8) and 22.7 in games against AP top 25 opponents.

The most positive signs for Mississippi Sate’s offense have been these: in losing to Georgia 31-41 on October 12, MSU not only stayed within 10 points of one of the SEC’s best teams, they became just the 4th team to score 30 points against UGA since 2020, and the first visiting team to score 30 between the hedges since Tennessee’s Dobb-nail Boot victory in 2016.

On top of that, State seems to have turned a corner in October, raising their per-game total yardage average to 408 yards/game from just 380 y/g in September/October. That’s an increase from 12th in the SEC to 6th in the league.

QB Michael Van Buren Jr. (of the Van Buren Boys) took over the position after a season-ending injury to Sr. QB Blake Shapen. Van Buren threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs in the Georgia game.
Kevin Coleman Jr. has caught a pass in 26 straight games and is one of four SEC players with a play of 80+ yards this season.
MSU has had five 100-yard receivers this season, including Jordan Mosely’s 107 yard effort against UMass last week.
RB Davin Booth has four runs of 30+ yards this year, including a run of 30+ in each of MSU’s last three games.

Prediction

Part of State’s struggle this season has been the lack of experience among their players, both in playing together and in college football generally. MSU has had 13 players make their first collegiate start this season; only 2 other Power 4 teams have had as many new starters. Jeff Lebby turned the roster over on arriving in Starkville, with 53 new players joining the Bulldog roster (including 28 transfers). Of Mississippi State’s 34 touchdowns this season, 28 have been scored by players who were not on the MSU roster a year ago.

Those players do seem to be gelling, however, with an uptick in performance (if not results) over the month of October. State has had some of their best moments under the brightest lights playing Texas and Georgia closer than they had any right to. Although I don’t think it is likely, I would not be shocked if this is the first game UT gives up more than 20 points.

So the MSU offense might make this game interesting. But that defense is putrid. We’ve all been waiting for the week where the Tennessee offense really clicks. If it’s going to happen, you’re not going to get a better setup than this. The 28 points UT scored against Kentucky last week was their best showing in a conference game so far. Lets hope they find that higher gear this week before heading to Athens for a huge game next week. Vols 41, State 19.