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Following a disappointing 24-27 loss to South Carolina, Tennessee (#13 CFP, 6-2, 3-2 SEC) got a much-needed open week. Now the refreshed Vols head into the home stretch of the season set to host their third top-10 SEC opponent this season after losing to then-no. 1 Texas 20-17 and beating then-no. 6 Alabama 26-10.
That third top-10 opponent will be… Kentucky (#6 CFP, 7-1, 5-1 SEC) somehow? Also coming off a bye week and 5-1 in league play, Kentucky is off to their best start since a 6-0 SEC season in 1977. Those five SEC wins have come consecutively, just the third five-game SEC win streak in program history. And the Cats have won three straight SEC road games for the first time since 2009.
Previously on Vols vs. Cats
Joey Aguilar completed 20 of 26 passes for 396 yards and 3 TDs in a 56-34 Tennessee win in the Commonwealth. Chris Brazzell, Mike Matthews, and Braylon Staley all had over 100 yard receiving, and Edrees Farooq added a pick-six in the blowout. Tennessee has won four straight in Lexington and five straight overall, and hold an 86-26-9 lead in the series all-time (45-11-6 in Knoxville).
Out of the 121 meetings between the schools, this will be just the fourth time both teams enter the game ranked: in 2022 #3 Tennessee defeated #19 Kentucky 27-13, (in Knoxville); in 1951 #1 Tennessee beat #9 Kentucky 28-0, (in Lexington); and in 1950 #9 Tennessee defeated #3 Kentucky 7-0 (in Knoxville).
Five Factor Preview & JAR
JAR has this one close. At just 58% win probability for Tennessee, the game falls into the realm of “toss-up”. From an advanced stats standpoint, these teams are very similar, although how they get there is pretty different. Both offenses, for example, are scoring 4.24 points per opportunity. Kentucky’s offense is a little better at preventing defensive havoc. Neither team is particularly explosive—UK has had 34 plays of 20+ yards while the Vols have had 32, putting both teams in the middle third nationally.
What sets Kentucky apart is their very high 49% success rate—meaning they stay on schedule and ahead of the chains. It’s going to be imperative that Tennessee get the Cats off schedule and in 2nd/long and 3rd/long situations. While UK is pretty good at preventing havoc, where most of the havoc they allow does come from is the front seven—sacks and TFLs—which is Tennessee’s havoc-causing strength.
JAR is much less bullish on the rest of Tennessee’s season that it was before the South Carolina loss. Both this game and next week’s visit to College Station are seen as toss-ups where they used to be assumed wins, and LSU-who JAR is disappointingly very high on—is a presumed loss. But like they say, jars are made to be broken.
Matchups & Personnel
The strength of Kentucky’s defense is their safeties. That could be good news for Tennessee, who wants to attack the front with the run game and the outside in man coverage. It’s going to be incredibly important for Tennessee to keep their identity in this game. They’re a power running team with DeSean Bishop as the workhorse. They need to be that on Saturday and impose their will on the Cars, much like they did against Alabama.
The most familiar name on Kentucky’s roster for UT fans is of course Lance Heard, who spent the last two years as Tennessee’s left tackle. He’s become one of the best OL in the league and hasn’t given up a sack this season according to PFF.
But as good a season as Heard is having, he will not be the main problem for Tennessee on Saturday. Will Stein’s offense is unorthodox to say the least. It truly is a gimmick offense. On top of the various combinations of shifts and motion the Cats will use, they also get real creative with personnel. Remember when Josh Heupel’s offense was different than anything else in the SEC, and it kept getting called a “gimmick offense”? This truly is a gimmick offense. They’ll put two QBs in the game, put one in orbit motion to sell a double pass, then run a reverse the other way. They’ll run a reverse to the TE and pitch to the back off it. The run jet sweeps with the daggum TEs, and their TEs are athletic enough to pull it off. “Trick plays” isn’t the right terminology. It’s just… weirdness that throws off the defense because you don’t know what they’re doing or about to do.
And when they’re not being weird they’re being fast. It’s a lot of quick outs, slants, and underneath stuff. That’s how they stay ahead of the chains and on schedule, and why they have that 49% success rate mentioned earlier. Kenny Minchey has thrown one interception this year, and it came in UK’s one loss, against Alabama. That could be a key right there: turn the QB over.
If you’re thinking yeah but Jim Knowles will have something to say about Will Stein’s offense, that’s my hope as well. You should know that as Oregon OC Stein faced Knowles three times and beat him twice. However, one of Stein’s wins was by a single point, and the other was in double OT against a fairly milquetoast Penn State team.
Prediction
When Kirby Smart is asked why UGA has success in Neyland Stadium when a similarly talented team like Alabama hasn’t won in Knoxville since 2020, his answer is that Georgia simplifies their game plan when on the road. They cut down on their motion and shift packages. They simplify the snap count. They cut way back on audibles. In other words, they do everything they can to take the advantages Neyland creates away and let their talent take over.
Kentucky, and Will Stein, want smoke and mirrors. They want to motion and shift and use odd personnel packages to keep you guessing at what’s about to come at you. Trying to do that when you can’t communicate over the deafening noise and the energy behind those voices becomes 1000x more difficult. There have been clips of UK practicing this week with Spooky Rocky Top and crowd noise piped into their facility. But it’s more than noise. There’s a force of will that comes with that noise and 100,000 people standing on your head as you try to maneuver against the play clock. And that can’t be replicated by piped in noise.
Kentucky is having a dream season. Will Stein is a Kentucky kid, so this game is going to be personal for him. At his first SEC Media Days over the summer, Stein why he believed he could turn around a historically difficult football program at a basketball-first school. Stein offered a blunt, self-assured rationale: “Because of me.” He was clearly trying to channel Curt Cignetti’s “I win. Google me” energy.
Tennessee is the better, more complete team and should win the game. Kentucky isn’t going to roll over and let UT take it though; it’s going to be a fistfight. Vol fans need to turn Stein’s “because of me” bravado back on him. Walk out of Neyland Stadium Saturday night knowing UT won “because of us.” Tennessee 27, Kentucky 20.