IFTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Kentucky Wildcats Football Preview 2024
Would they bring back the Beer Barrel if Yee Haw Brewing sponsored it?
Recently
Tennessee (#7 AP/#7 Coaches, 6-1, 3-1 SEC) enjoyed an off-week after taking down Alabama 24-17 on the Third Saturday of October. The win propelled UT back into the Top 10 rankings after falling to 11 following the OT win against Florida. Now sitting at #7 in both polls, this week marks the second time in three years that Tennessee starts November in the top 10—the only two times UT has achieved that feat this late in the season in the last 20 years.
It was a long October for Kentucky (NR, 3-5, 1-5 SEC), who has not won a game since upsetting then-fifth-ranked Ole Miss 20-17 in Oxford on September 28—UK’s highest-ranked road victory in program history. In the interim, the Cats have lost to Vanderbilt (13-20), Florida (20-48), and Auburn (10-24). You know things have gone sideways when you’ve lost three in a row and Vandy is the best of the bunch.
Previously on Vols vs. Cats
Tennessee beat Kentucky in Lexington a year ago, 33-27. It’s where Dylan Sampson solidified his place at the table, taking over the game in the 4th quarter. With the Vols clinging to a slim 26-24 lead and sitting 80 yards from the endzone, Sampson gained 53 of those yards yards on 9 touches culminating in a 12-yard TD run to salt away the UT win.
Overall, Tennessee has a commanding 84-26-9 record in the series, including three straight and 8 of the last 10. Beating UK is a given to many Vol fans, but losing the game can mean the end of a coach’s career. It signaled the end for Butch Jones in 2017 and was the first domino for Jeremy Pruitt in 2020. And although 2011 was just Derek Dooley’s next to last season with the Vols, his 7-10 loss in Lexington was roundly considered a disaster, ending 23-game win streak Tennessee held dating back to 1985. In fact, in my lifetime, the Vols have lost to UK just five times, meaning Kentucky coach Mark Stoops has solved the Big Orange puzzle better than any Cats’ coach in decades.
Five Factor Preview
Tennessee Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
Defense has been the strength of Kentucky’s squad this year. UK nearly upset then-number one Georgia on Week 2 of the season, holding the Dawgs to just 13 points. It’s the only game this season where UGA has been held under 30 points. The Cats also held Georgia to just 262 yards of total offense, UGA’s lowest total in five years.
Kentucky lands in the top 25 nationally in fewest fist downs allowed (14th), redzone defense (18th), and total defense (21st). The Cats have allowed relatively few scoring opportunities this season, and held opponents to right around a field goal on each of those opportunities. UK does allow a fairly high success rate, indicating a bend-but-don’t-break style, but also create a good number of havoc plays as well.
2-Deep & Personnel
Outside linebacker JJ Weaver is third in UK history with 37.5 TFL and fourth in school history with 21.5 sacks. He is listed as OUT on the Cats’ initial availability report.
LB D’Eryk Jackson has led UK in tackles the past two seasons, but is also listed as OUT.
DB Jordan Lovett, who currently leads the team with 44 tackles is available for Saturday and has averaged 8.6 tackles during UK’s three-game losing streak.
Tennessee Defense vs. Kentucky Offense
Kentucky’s offense has been putrid this season. The Cats rank last in the SEC in scoring with 19.1 points per game, last in passing with 166 yards per game despite the offseason addition of UGA transfer and 5-star prospect Brock Vandagriff, and next-to-last in total offense with just over 300 yards per game. And those are just the traditional stats, the advanced stats are just as bad, including a tantalizing 19% havoc rate given up, indicating the Tennessee defense has a chance to feast early this Thanksgiving season.
2-Deep and Personnel
WR Barrion Brown has provided the biggest spark to Kentucky’s offense this season, as a kick returner. Brown leads the SEC with 27 yards per kick return and is the only SEC player to return a kickoff for a TD this season—the SEC-record-breaking fifth of his career. Of course, this is a threat that can easily be neutralized by not kicking to him.
WR Dane Key leads UK with 39 receptions for 587 yards this season. Twelve of those catches have gone for 20+ yards, the 3rd-highest total in the SEC this season.
You can tell a lot about a team by looking at the school’s official media notes for the week. The schools will try to promote their top-performing players early in the publication (UT, for example, mentions Cooper Mays, Dylan Sampson, Jermod McCoy, Will Brooks, Nico Iamaleava, and Chris Brazzell on page 1 this week). You have to turn to page eight of Kentucky’s game notes before you find any information about five-star transfer QB Brock Vandagriff. Make of that what you will.
Former Tennessee OT Gerald Mincey, who transferred to Kentucky last spring and immediately began to trash the Tennessee program through social media, is listed as OUT for Saturday’s game. Make of that what you will.
Prediction
Kentucky has been very Jekyll-and-Hyde this season: beating Ole Miss on the road, nearly beating Georgia, but then going winless in October against some pretty mediocre teams. Tennessee has had their own struggles, especially on offense in SEC play. But even against conference opponents, UT scores over 20 points per game. Kentucky manages just a paltry 13.5 ppg in SEC games. The last several games I’ve based my prediction on a faulty premise: if the Tennessee offense can score X points, they’ll win. It’s faulty because this team isn’t about the offense, as strange as that sounds for a Josh Heupel-coached team. It’s the defense, dummy, is a lesson that it only took seven games into the season for me to learn. Tennessee will dominate Saturday night on the strength of the defense again. Vols 27, Kentucky 6.
Extraneous
You might be aware, as I was, that long ago the University of Kentucky was known as Transylvania University (I was). You might not know, as I did not until this week, that UK also used to be known as the State University of Kentucky. Yes, the SU of KY. SUKY. Photo proof:
So here’s to ol’ SUKY. Long may they reign.
(Also, bring back the Beer Barrel.)