IFTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Kent State Golden Flashes Preview (9/14/24)

I double checked: Kent is NOT a state

Recently

Tennessee (#7 AP/#9 Coaches’, 2-0, 0-0 SEC) bloodied the Wolfpack in Charlotte, taking down NC State 51-10. The Vols were favorites, but most pundits were surprised at how thorough the domination was on both sides of the ball.

Earlier that same day, Kent State (NR, 0-2, 0-0 MAC)… double checks… lost? to FCS Saint Francis? 23-17? Oh, my. That stands in especially stark contrast to MAC conference mate Northern Illinois going to South Bend and beating Notre Dame on Saturday, too. And it’s not like St. Francis is a FCS powerhouse—they lost to Dayton 18-10 just the week prior. The Golden Flashes aren’t just bad, they’re bad bad, aren’t they? (Yep.)

Previously on Vols vs. Golden Flashes

This is the first meeting between Tennessee and Kent State, but UT has a 10-0 record against MAC teams, including 3-0 under Josh Heupel (38-6 vs. Bowling Green in ‘21, 59-10 vs. Ball State & 63-6 vs. Akron in ‘22).

Five Factor Preview & Two-Deeps

Tennessee Offense vs. Kent State Defense

KSU gives up a lot of scoring opportunities, a lot of points off those opportunities, and allows a high success rate, all while creating a minimum amount of defensive havoc. The Golden Flashes do have Buffalo transfer Kam Olds, who has three sacks this season, and hope for good things from Khalib Johns, who started the 2022 season with four sacks and seven TFL in the first four games, but has been hampered by injury ever since.

Tennessee Defense vs. Kent State Offense

Can I just say, that negative points per opportunity under UT’s defense is hella sexy. It won’t last all year, but it might last through this week. Kent State’s offense doesn’t create scoring opportunities, they don’t get much more than a field goal when they do generate a scoring opp, and they allow one out of every four plays to be a havoc play—meaning you can expect a sack, TFL, pass break up, or turnover just about every set of downs. This Tennessee defense gonna eat Saturday. The Golden Flashes do have WR Chrishon McCray, who was a consensus All-MAC player last year, leading the conference in yards per catch, and who has 98 yards/game this season while leading the MAC in return yardage. Also, kicker Andrew Glass is two field goals away from the Kent State school record, so you just might see Golden Flash history made in Neyland this weekend.

Prediction

Kent State is the worst team Tennessee will play this year. They are worse than Chattanooga. They likely wouldn’t make the playoffs as an FCS team. The Sagarin ratings have KSU at #187, behind several FCS teams, including UTC, UTM, and Austin Peay. They give up over 200 rushing yards per game and over 280 passing. They’ve been outscored 78-41 in two games, and that’s against Pitt and a crummy regional Catholic school team. And they have nothing to play for—at 0-2 already, they follow this weekend’s trip to Knoxville with a visit to Penn State next week. The Golden Flashes will be 0-4 when conference play begins, and likely completely demoralized at that point too. I tried to find something that Kent State is better at than UT statistically, and all I could find is they have fewer penalties, a few more punt return yards, and one more sack than the Vols. Tennessee will win this game, by a lot.

The question becomes, will Tennessee cover the 49-point spread? And they should, they beat a decent team by nearly that much a week ago, and they beat a UTC team that is likely better than Kent State by 66. It would actually be a pretty big upset if Kent State beat the spread. And I’d venture to say the Vols have a decent chance of beating the total of 62.5 by themselves. What you really hope for this weekend as a Vol fan is for everyone to make it through this game healthy and ready to hit the road next weekend when UT travels to Oklahoma for the start of SEC play.