A little over a year ago, Vol fans were coming out of spring practice wondering who would be the team’s starting quarterback come September. The same thing happened this year. A year ago, the answer to that question was a surprisingly fun one. Here’s hoping history repeats itself. Tennessee (#20 AP/18 Coaches, 0-0, 0-0 SEC) opens the 2026 campaign with a new QB, a new defensive coordinator, a roster that has been physically re-made by a new S&C coach, and what feels like a whole lot of national media underestimating UT’s chances at being a contender this season.
Meanwhile, Furman (NR FCS, 1-0, 0-0 SoCon) already started their season with a 20-3 win over DII Anderson last Thursday night. The Paladins gained 451 yards in the game while racking up seven tackles for loss and holding the Trojans to just 160 total yards.
Previously on Vols vs. Paladins
This will be the third-ever meeting between UT and Furman, with the Vols posting wins in 1941 (31-6) and 1942 (52-7). Tennessee is 5-0 against FCS teams under Josh Heupel, and the Vols have outscored those teams 292-57. With an average offensive output of 58.2 points against FCS opponents, it’s actually kind of interesting to see if this year’s Tennessee squad can outdo the 1942 team’s 52 points against the Paladins.
JAR Preview
The JAR (Just Another Rating) system is back for 2026. The preseason version is based on three things: returning production, talent level, and recent results. Over the course of the season, the weight of the numbers shifts to the five factors that are most correlated to winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position finishing drives, and turnovers. But the preseason numbers look like this:
At #15, Tennessee isn’t in a much different spot than the AP or Coaches’ poll. But at the schedule breakdown level, you can see that JAR feels UT’s season could go in a lot of different directions. Based on a combination of win probability and 1,000 simulations, JAR sees Tennessee having seven sure wins, two sure losses, and three toss-up games:
Now I’m here to tell you, Tennessee is beating Alabama this Third Saturday in October. Bama hasn’t won in Neyland since 2020, and that’s not going to change this year. That leaves two toss-up games to decide the Vols’ fate, both with revenge storylines: a road trip to Columbia, SC for the first time since 2022, and a home game against Lane Kiffin , which could play out as a de facto playoff game itself if the chips fall correctly this season.
Of course, that’s if JAR is right about the rest of Tennessee’s schedule. But it was pretty close last year. It got one “sure” loss wrong in thinking UT would lose in the Swamp (a historically safe call to make) and called the UGA and Oklahoma games as toss-ups, which they were.
New for this season are score predictions created by JAR. Looking at the predictions for UT, we get a four-point win against Bama, a two-point loss at South Carolina, and a three-point win over LSU.
And what if? Imagine a three-loss Tennessee with wins over Bama and Kiffin. What does the playoff committee do with that? (And no, I’m not writing off the Texas and A&M games just because JAR is. We will get to that as the season unfolds.)
But JAR can also give probabilities for final records, and it believes Tennessee is most likely to go 8-4, with 9-3 a strong possibility and 10-2 on the table:
Hey, a 0.4% probability to go undefeated?
Personnel
Plenty of guesses here. Not 100% sure about the offensive line, not sure the coaches are either. That’s probably a work in progress until the Texas game. I also don’t think we have a clear picture of what the defense will look like either. And I’m not sure how many answers we will get this week. Likely a chance for a lot of guys to get needed live game action.
Apologies for not having a detailed picture of what Furman has. Not to be flippant, but if it ends up mattering what Furman’s roster looks like, we have much bigger problems anyway. However, you might remember the name of Furman QB Jake Garcia from the Netflix series Titletown High, which chronicled in part Garcia’s journey to play at Valdosta High in Georgia. Garcia was eventually ruled ineligible at Valdosta after his parents’ sham divorce that facilitated the move was correctly seen through (you might remember this story). Since then Garcia has been at Miami (2021-’22), Missouri (‘23), East Carolina (‘24), and Michigan (‘25) before landing at Furman with a year of eligibility remaining somehow.
It’s also of some interest that Furman lists three safeties on their starting lineup. Jim Knowles is the godfather of the three-safety set, so I’d expect Tennessee to have plenty of answers ready if the Paladins try to base out of that defense.
Prediction
It should be the kind of game where UT can name the score. The final will likely depend on how long the coaches keep the starters in (and historically with Heupel, it seems to always be uncomfortably long). The Vegas line is around -47. I’m gonna stick with the JAR prediction of Tennessee 59, Furman 0.