IFTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Florida Gators Football Preview 2025
Once more into the Swamp
Recently
On Homecoming, Tennessee (#20, 7-3, 3-3 SEC) easily handled an overmatched New Mexico State team 42-9. While it was a dominant win for the Vols, it was in some ways an underwhelming, sleepy game where you wanted to see UT eviscerate what is probably the weakest squad they’d play this year while gearing up for a pair of season-closing rivalry games. The Big Orange will need a little more juice in the Swamp this week to come out with a win.
That is, if Florida (NR, 3-7, 2-5 SEC) plays like they did in the first three quarters of last week’s game against Ole Miss. The Gators led 24-20 going into the final period before Ole Miss salted away the game in the 4th. So which UF team shows up this week, the one that took UGA and the Rebels to the wire in recent weeks? Or the one that got blown out by Kentucky 38-7 in between those two games?
Previously on Vols vs. Gators
Tennessee beat Florida 23-17 in overtime a year ago. The second quarter of that game featured what I consider one of the defining moments of Tennessee’s 2024 season, in which James Pearce forced a Graham Mertz fumble at the goal line, and four plays later Tennessee went for—and converted—a fourth & one at their own 10 yard line. Even though the drive ended with a Nico Iamaleava interception a few plays later, that sequence solidified the blue-collar approach the team rode through the rest of the year and into the program’s first playoff bid.
It was UT’s second win in three years against the Gators, having previously lost five in a row and 16 of the previous 17. In fact, Tennessee is 22-32 all-time against Florida. That’s bad, but it’s worse when you know that Tennessee won the first 10 games in the series. So since 1953, UT is just 12-32 against the Gators. These two schools only played sporadically in the first 70 or so years of the rivalry, but have played on a home-and-home basis every year since 1990. In that span, the Vols are a paltry 8-26 against UF. Tennessee hasn’t won in the Swamp since 2003, and have only won in Gainesville five times ever.
Five Factor Preview
Last summer I rolled out the JAR rating. Then and every time I’ve mentioned it since, I’ve emphasized that it’s a project and not a product. I don’t publish the full rating every week because it does some really weird things that I need to iron out (this week it has Penn St. and Texas in the top 15 still, and has James Madison and North Texas both rated higher than Georgia, for example).
But JAR has been really good at predicting Tennessee’s games this season. It knew the Vols were going to roll Syracuse in game one, when many pundits were putting UT on upset watch. JAR identified UGA, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma as toss-up games. Each was a one-score game and two went to overtime. It picked Alabama as a sure loss for Tennessee, and although I believe the game was much closer than the final score shows, it was the largest margin of defeat for UT this season.
JAR is giving Tennessee a near 80% chance to win this game. While that’s no guarantee, it’s far outside the limits of a toss-up, and it’s a pretty clear indication that Tennessee should win this game.
JAR also doesn’t know that Tennessee has only won in Gainesville five times ever, so there’s the rub.
Personnel & Matchups
QB DJ Lagway was projected as one of the SEC’s best signal-callers coming into the season. It hasn’t worked out according to plan for the sophomore, who has struggled with inconsistency and underperformed all season. Lagway was benched at halftime of UF’s loss to Kentucky, but bounced back with 200+ yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss last week.
Lagway had his best outing against Texas—one of the few games this season where the Gators lived up to their potential—completing 21 of 28 passes for 298 yards and 2 TD. On the year, Lagway has 12 touchdowns but has thrown 13 interceptions.
RB Jaden Baugh has been the focus of UF’s ground game, rushing for 808 yards and 6 TDs. Baugh had a single 100 yard game this season, of course against Texas.
Tennessee’s defense will look a little different with the dismissal of DB Boo Carter. And before you fire off something like “Boo has been missing all year”, know that Carter has been good for 10.5 havoc plays this season, tied for 2nd on the team with 4.5 TFLs and tied for 1st on the team with 3 fumbles forced.
Florida’s defense has been a much more consistent unit than the offense in 2025. That’s a little worrisome as most of Tennessee’s woes in the Swamp have been offensive:
Since 1999, Tennessee averages 2.6 false starts per game in the Swamp
In the last 10 UT losses in Gainesville, the Gators have intercepted 17 passes and allowed just 16 Vol touchdowns (11 passing, five rushing)
Tennessee hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown in the Swamp since 2017
UT has scored a total of 33 points in Gainesville over the last three trips there, and have not passed for over 300 yards once since 2015.
Of those stats, you can imagine Tennessee will have some false starts. It’s just a product of trying to play up-tempo. The “zero rushing TDs in Gainesville since 2017” stat is confounding too, though it makes more sense when paired with just “33 points” in that time frame.
However, the key stat really seems to be 17 INTs vs 16 TDs. Obviously turning the ball over more frequently than scoring is a failing formula. The good news is Tennessee is +2 on the year in turnover margin, while Florida is -3. The bad news is 40% of Joey Aguilar’s interceptions on the year have come in the last two games. Florida has picked off a pass in eight straight games this season, and allowed just nine passing TDs in that stretch.
Other notes:
Florida averaged double-digit missed tackles in each of the last three years. That number is down to 8.0 missed tackles/game this season.
The Gators have what they believe is the SEC’s most underrated LB room led by Miles Graham (leads the team with 60 tackles) and Jaden Robinson (39 tackles—5th on the team).
Prediction
Before the season started, I believed Tennessee would finish 9-3 with losses to UGA, Alabama, and Florida. The Florida prediction was based almost entirely on the game being in the Swamp. At Neyland I would easily pick Tennessee, in the preseason and this weekend. The Swamp is a den of inequity, though. I’ve seen too many good Tennessee teams go into that building and crash and burn inexplicably to feel good about picking the Vols.
Tennessee should win the game. The Vols are the better team statistically, analytically, and record-wise. UT is the betting favorite and the favorite via every metric and ranking system you can find. As I said earlier, our home-grown JAR has Tennessee with a 80% probability to win. But also, as I said earlier, JAR doesn’t know Tennessee always loses in the Swamp.
Then again, neither does Joey Aguliar, who was still at App State the last time UT traveled to Gainesville. In fact, not a single starter for Tennessee’s offense played a snap in that 2023 game, and just Jackson Ross (who averaged 40 yards/punt) and three current defensive starters logged a stat in the game (Bryson Eason, Dominic Bailey, and Arion Carter combined for seven tackles coming off the bench). If you’ve ever had selective memory as a program, now is the time. These Tennessee players don’t have to live in the trauma that Gainesville has caused this program.
If Tennessee just takes care of the ball—and that could be a big IF—then the Vols will win this game. As we are in a season of hope and gratitude, I’m going to hope that is the case and plan to be thankful for a Tennessee win. Vols 34, Gators 23
Extraneous
In general, I subscribe to the Ric Flair theory of scheduling: to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man. Although I understand while they’re necessary, I kinda hate games like last week’s vs. New Mexico State because that’s not the competition I’m interesting in seeing Tennessee play. I want to see my team against the best teams week-in and week-out, because I want to know what they’re really made of. One of the biggest problems college football has is a lack of data points. Strength of schedule becomes a huge boondoggle this time of year because a quarter of the games played have such competitive imbalance that it’s impossible to draw conclusions from them. The best teams need to be playing the best teams.
That said, I have no remorse or sadness that starting next year the Tennessee-Florida rivalry falls victim to the new SEC scheduling changes. This rivalry isn’t fun. It’s torture. It’s the football equivalent of being a victim in one of the Saw movies. Or maybe like one of the victims in Seven, wondering which of your sins are going to do you in this time (if Butch Jones is coaching, it’s probably sloth). And in the fourth quarter you’re Brad Pitt screaming what’s in the box?!?! knowing damn well it’s Jabbar Gaffney. This Florida series can kick rocks.