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A heroic defensive effort came up short as Tennessee (#17 AP/#17 Coaches’, 3-1, 0-1 SEC) just couldn’t find enough points in a loss to Texas last Saturday. There was plenty to be encouraged about for Vol fans, like the defense holding Texas to just 3/12 on third down, forcing five three-and-outs, limiting the Longhorns to just 61 rush yards, sacking Arch Manning six times and forcing an interception, as well as Qua Moss’ electric punt return TD and an innovative onside kick recovery. As for the other side of the ball, well, um, hey, Faizon Brandon had 75 yards rushing (just don’t ask how many yards he lost to sacks).
Meanwhile Auburn (NR AP/RV Coaches’, 3-1, 1-1 SEC) bounced back from a previous week loss to Florida by beating Vanderbilt 21-15. The Dores outgained Auburn in the game, but two blocked kicks, including a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown, pushed the Tigers over the top.
Previously on Vols vs. Tigers
One week after losing to #1 in Neyland Stadium, Vol fans’ thoughts turn back to the last time UT beat the top-ranked team in America: 1985 against Auburn and future Heisman-winning RB Bo Jackson, who took himself out of the game in the second half of a 38-20 Tennessee win. Between that game and 1999, Tennessee posted a 6-2-2 record against AU and held a 22-21-3 lead in the series.
But that 1999 victory was the last for Tennessee in Neyland, as since the turn of the century the Vols have lost three straight at home to the Tigers and have just one win against Auburn, 30-24 in 2018 at Jordan-Hare on the arm of Jarrett Gaurantano. Not that the Vols and Tiger have played much in that time frame. Previously, this was a real rivalry as UT and AU played annually from 1956 to 1991. However, this is only the 9th meeting in the last two decades-plus and just the third in the last 13 years. Overall, Auburn leads the series 29-22-3, but Tennessee leads in Knoxville despite the three straight series losses, 14-10-2.
Josh Heupel will try to reverse Tennessee’s luck in the series when he faces Auburn for the first time as UT’s head coach. Auburn is the only team in the SEC Heupel hasn’t faced and just one of four he hasn’t beaten (0-5 vs UGA, 0-1 vs Ole Miss, 0-1 vs Texas). It will also be Heupel’s first meeting against former assistant Alex Golesh, who is in his first year at Auburn after three years at USF. Golesh’s staff includes plenty of names familiar to Vol fans, including co-DC/DB coach Tim Banks and co-OC/WR coach Kodi Burns.
JAR & Five Factor Preview
There are five factors that are highly correlated with winning football. The graph below gives you an idea of how good each team is at each of those five areas, along with their associated statistics:
To be honest, JAR seems to be overcooking Tennessee’s offense by a good bit. It’s hard to see what they put out there against Texas and think that’s the #5 offense in America. But then again, JAR is built on the five factors, and there’s still a lot of green on the offensive side of Tennessee’s charts. It might be even more odd that the Vols defense is only #9.
Where JAR has been spot-on so far this season is in predicting the course of Tennessee’s season. Of course, anyone could have predicted Tennessee wins in the first three games, but JAR said the Vols would barely break a sweat, and that was pretty much true. It also said the Texas game would be a toss-up, and it was. We will see if that trend continues as JAR says this weekend’s game will be a little tougher than the Georgia Tech matchup, but not by much.
Personnel & Matchups
I know a lot of Tennessee fans want to credit Alex Golesh with the early success Josh Heupel had in Knoxville. Some would even dare to say that Golesh is the sole reason Heupel got off to a fast start with UT, and that the offense has “fallen off” since Golesh left. And there’s probably some truth to that beyond the fact that SEC defenses adjusted to the Veer-and-Shoot, ultra-wide offensive style. It makes sense that the offense was a little better when a guy who is now a SEC head coach himself was calling plays.
However, there is a faction of Tennessee fans who would go so far as to say they fear this matchup because, in their minds, Golesh might even be the better coach of the two. That’s foolish. Want to hear a stunning stat? Alex Golesh has a negative nine coach effect in his 3+ years of being a HC. Coach effect is measured by looking at the talent levels of opposing teams; if a less-talented team beats a more-talented team, the winning coach gets a +1, and the losing coach gets a -1. Alex Golesh is -9. It’s almost unfathomable: Golesh went 23-15 in three years at USF, so with a -9 coach effect, he had the more talented team in the majority of those losses.
Now coach effect is not a perfect stat. There are circumstances it doesn’t account for, such as the talent level of the players actually in the two-deep (you can have a five-star freshman riding the bench that raises the team’s talent level, but doesn’t contribute to the games’ outcomes). And Golesh did do good things at USF; he had them in bowl games all three years after a previous five-year drought. Poor coach effect number doesn’t make Golesh a bad coach, but it is eye-opening.
Also, notice how many of Auburn’s key players are transfers from South Florida. If Tennessee was playing USF this weekend, would you be afraid? (The answer should be “no”). Consider former Tennessee player Chas Nimrod, who is now Auburn’s leading receiver, and ask yourself where Nimrod would fit into the current rotation of UT WRs—would he even have a place?
The real coaching matchup of the weekend is not Golesh vs. Heupel, it’s Auburn defensive coordinator DJ Durkin vs. Heupel. Durkin is a veteran SEC DC, and there’s no question he’s licking his chops after seeing Texas violate the Tennessee offensive line. Durkin’s defenses have given up just 21 points per game and 3 yards per rush during his tenure, so despite Auburn not having quite the talent level the Longhorns brought last week, the Vols will have their hands full with the Tigers’ defense.
Complicating things is the loss of starting OG Wendell Moe for the season. Tennessee will have to shuffle the line, and while OL coach Glen Elarbee has lots of options, it seems UT is back to square one when it comes to finding the right combination and building cohesiveness along the line.
Prediction
In reality, there’s no reason Tennessee should lose this game. But college football often defies reality. If the Vol offensive line continues to stumblebum through this game, if Faizon Brandon is shellshocked from last weekend, if DJ Durkin’s defense keeps the run game in check and the Tennessee offense can’t find success, this could be a low-scoring, scary game for UT. But Auburn had trouble scoring against a poor Vandy defense last weekend. Even in a low-scoring game, Tennessee’s defense has out-performed Auburn’s this season and gives the Vols an edge.
The more likely scenario is Tennessee’s offense finds success in the run game that looks more like vintage Josh Heupel and that helps Faizon Brandon find some plays in the pass game. It’s a get-right game for the Vols. Tennessee 34, Auburn 13.