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For the first time since a 13-3 Vol win in 2001, Tennessee (#14 AP/#14 Coaches’, 5-1, 2-1 SEC) went to Fayetteville and beat Arkansas, this time 24-17. If your glass is half full, this win showed continued growth for a team that battled through some adversity with its second starting QB of the season. If your glass is half empty, fire everybody.
Meanwhile Alabama (#6 AP/#7 Coaches’, 5-1, 3-1 SEC) hosted Georgia and lost to the Dawgs 20-17. That game was the second of a string of ranked opponents for the Tide, as Alabama beat then-#16 Mississippi State 56-23 before the Georgia game.
Previously on Vols vs. Tide
Tennessee lost in Tuscaloosa 37-20 last October. It was a game closer than the score indicates, as UT’s offense outgained the Tide 410 yards to 373. But a disastrous 2nd quarter saw the Vols give up a safety and a 99-yard interception return for the Tide as time expired in the half, putting Tennessee in a 23-7 hole they never recovered from.
Of course this series hasn’t seen back-to-back wins for either team since Bama won in 2020 and ’21. Tennessee stunned the college football world by breaking Alabama’s 15-game series win streak in 2022, and won a defensive slugfest in 2024 as well, 24-17. Tennessee has scored at least 20 points in each of Josh Heupels’ games against Alabama, which doesn’t sound like much until you find out that the last time UT scored 20 against Bama in five consecutive games was 1995-2001.
And for the first time since 1970 Tennessee will wear their orange jerseys while Alabama wears crimson. The Vols won that 1970 game 24-0 behind a school-record eight interceptions, including three by Tim Priest.
Five Factor Preview & JAR
Let me start with what should be obvious: Tennessee isn’t supposed to win this game. Every ranking/rating system, including this site’s own, has the Tide rated as a top-5 team, and has the Vols rated somewhere outside the top 10, typically in the top 20. There’s also data that shows there’s a significant dropoff after the top 5. So much like we discussed before the Texas game, if Tennessee wins Saturday, it will have been against the odds.
But Tennessee nearly did beat Texas. Tennessee wasn’t supposed to be Alabama in 2024 or 2022 either. So it’s not supposed to happen, but it’s not some impossible feat. It won’t be App State/Michigan if it does happen. According to our JAR model, the Vols have about a 1-in-3 shot, and predicts an Alabama win, 30-20. But also over 1,000 simulations UT covers 2/3 of the time; that means it could easily be at least a one-score game. And in a one-score game, well…
So how does Tennessee make it happen?
Two areas stand out for me when comparing these teams. First, Alabama’s offense has allowed a lot of havoc plays, especially front 7 havoc, which Tennessee has excelled in. Bama has given up 16 sacks this season (115th-worst in the nation), while the Vols lead the country in sacks with 25. Haters will say it’s because UT hasn’t played anyone, but consider that Texas has given up 12 sacks this year, and half of those were courtesy of the Vols. For UT to win this game Saturday, they have to get Alabama QB Keelon Russell on the ground. Russell has been an incredible player through six games this season, and he’s likely to pop a run or two. If Tennessee can’t get home on him, things could get ugly. But if the Vols front plays as it has the first half of the season, they can give Tennessee its best chance of winning the game.
The other area that stands out is that Bama’s defense is giving up 3.77 points per scoring opportunity. While that doesn’t sound like a lot of points, it is bottom-third nationally. Conversely, Tennessee is in the top 20% in finishing drives with 4.48 points per scoring opportunity. The caveat there is that the points per opportunity have fallen off a cliff in SEC play, and Alabama’s defense is better than what Tennessee saw against Auburn or Arkansas. It comes down to the fact that Tennessee can’t come up with empty possessions after making deep into enemy territory like they did a week ago.
Matchups & Personnel
This is the point in the season where I make a slight change to these graphics. Previously, a colored-in circle indicated a returning starter from the previous season. Now, it indicates a player that has started every game so far this season. Also, On Tennessee’s defense I’ve upgraded Xavier Gilliam to a star player because, come on man, have you seen this dude play?
Speaking of Gilliam, he will be one of the Vols chiefly responsible for causing havoc on Saturday, either by by winning one-on-one battles or by drawing double teams and freeing up other rushers (or beating those double teams, as he has several times this season). There could be a potential soft spot on the Bama offensive line too, as center Racin Delgatty is listed as questionable. There’s a good chance his replacement would be Mal Waldrep, who has played some for Bama this season, but at guard, not center.
Also out for the Tide is erstwhile wunderkind Ryan Coleman-Williams. While Bama has plenty of talent at WR, you can’t argue that losing Williams makes no difference to their offense.
Explosive pass defense has been a weakness for Alabama this season, which is wild considering Zabien Brown and Bray Hubbard are serious All-SEC, if not All-American type players. But the Tide have given up 51 pass plays of 10+ yards and 22 plays of 20+ yards, putting them in the bottom 20% of all teams, and 12 plays of 30+ yards—worst in the SEC and in the bottom 6% off all teams nationally.
Unfortunately Tennessee has struggled to create those explosive plays themselves. The Vols are bottom-third nationally in 10+ and 20+ yard plays, although they do place in the middle-third when it comes to 30+ yarders. One way for Tennessee to pump those numbers up is finding more ways to get the ball in Mike Matthews’ hands.
The difficulty in doing that is the time Tennessee’s offensive line has given the QBs to get the ball out to the playmakers. I don’t trust PFF’s grades much, but their statistics are usually pretty solid, and according to those stats Faizon Brandon has had just over 3 seconds, and George MacIntyre just under 3 seconds to throw on the average dropback. LaNorris Sellers and Marcel Reed get over 4 seconds per throw, and Sam Leavitt just under 4 seconds, for some SEC comps. The good news might be that MacIntyre, who will be making his second start this week, has been pressured 14 times and sacked just three (21%), while Brandon was pressured 45 times and sacked 15 (33%, although 10 of those sacks were of course from one game).
If you’re Alabama DC Kane Wommack, you’ve no doubt dissected that Texas game to figure out the best ways to pressure UT’s line. Not that he likely needs much of a blueprint: Yhonzae Pierre sacked Joey Agular three times last year. Pierre matching up against David Sanders will be a premier battle this weekend, otherwise we must simply hope the rest of Tennessee’s line can bumble through the game keeping MacIntyre mostly clean.
One other matchup note, and it’s kind of an obvious one. Bama CB Dijon Lee lost his mind last week, punching a Georgia player right before a critical third down play in the fourth quarter. The obvious play is to go after Lee early and try to get in his head, hoping he makes another critical error.
Prediction
As stated before, Tennessee isn’t supposed to win this game. There’s certainly a world in which the JAR predicted score of a 30-20 (or worse) Bama win. But there’s also certainly a world in which Tennessee wins this game. The Vols could have—arguably should have—beaten the Longhorns. Do you think Bama is better than Texas? Maybe. Are they demonstrably better? I doubt it. Josh Heupel hasn’t lost to Alabama in Neyland Stadium as Tennessee’s head coach, and there’s a great chance that continues Saturday. Tennessee 27, Alabama 23.