IFTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Football Preview 2025
TSIO, The "S" Stands for "Shootout"
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Tennessee (#11/11, 5-1, 2-1 SEC) held off a late Arkansas comeback attempt to beat the Hogs 34-31 Saturday. The closeness of the final score has led to some pretty harsh criticism of the Tennessee defense and coordinator Tim Banks this week. And the team that is last in both yards allowed and points allowed in the SEC probably should get some criticism tossed their way. But it’s also worth noting that Tennessee is first nationally in sacks/game, fifth in TFL/game, and first in fumbles forced. The front seven of the Tennessee defense has been excellent. The secondary has struggled—the same secondary that is missing an All-American at one corner and an All-SEC caliber player at the other corner. That doesn’t change the fact that the defense needs to play better, but it does give context for some of their struggles.
It’s also worth noting that after Arkansas went up 17-10 in the second quarter, their next six drives went punt, half, fumble, downs, punt, fumble. Tennessee’s defense dominated the middle part of the game, and it took what’s probably the best dual-threat QB the Vols will face this year and a highly acclaimed play caller to make the game look close in the end.
Meanwhile Alabama (#6/6, 5-1, 3-0 SEC) won on the road at previously unbeaten Missouri, 27-24. The game felt like Bama was in control for most of the day, but they struggled to find a way to put the Tigers away. It’s almost like winning in this league is extremely difficult and we should all be grateful for the wins our team gets rather than screaming “fire everybody” when the game doesn’t go exactly like we want it to, huh?
Previously on the Third Saturday in October
A season ago, Tennessee beat Alabama for the second time in three years, downing the Tide 24-17. It was the first time in over a decade that any team defeated Alabama while scoring 24 or fewer points (previously Ole Miss did it 23-17 in 2014). Under Josh Heupel the Vols have scored at least 20 points in every game against Alabama, and have held a lead at least once in each of those games as well, while going 2-2.
This year’s contest will be the 108th meeting of a game that has been annual since 1928 (with no game in 1943 due to WWII). Alabama has a 60-40-7 all-time lead in the series, and Tennessee has only won in Tuscaloosa four times (the last time being in 2003).
Five Factor Preview
One hope I had in creating the JAR rating was to challenge some of my preconceived notions, and that is certainly happening this week. Off the top of my head I would have thought UT’s defense is much worse than Alabama’s defense this year. The numbers say otherwise. Even if you look at traditional stats and not these “advanced stats”, it’s true that UT has given up more total yards. But Bama gives up more yards per play (5.36 YPP) than the Vols do (5.10). While it’s true that Tennessee gives up a yard more than the Tide per pass attempt (6.2 vs. 7.2), Alabama gives up a whole yard and a half more per rush attempt (4.82 vs. 3.29). Neither defense has been stellar.
The advanced stats also show the similarities between the defenses. They both create a lot of havoc, but they also struggle to limit opponent success rate. Both defenses give up too many points per scoring opportunity—although Bama has done a better job of limiting those opportunities.
The field position battle could be a deciding factor in this game. Alabama has been among the best at starting with a short field while giving their opponents a long field to work with. It’s probable that Alabama will have some frustratingly long scoring drives—but that might be OK. Brooks Austin (the Film Guy on YouTube) has pointed out this week that making the opposing offense take a lot of reps can be good for UT’s defense. The more snaps the opponent has to take, the more chances at creating a fumble or other game-changing havoc play Tennessee’s defense has. Of course ideally you’d want to make Bama go 3-and-out every drive, but the more likely outcome seems to be getting into a shootout and breaking Bama’s serve through a turnover or two.
Along those lines, Tennessee cannot give up explosive runs to Alabama and stay in this game. Bama is in the bottom 10% in run play explosiveness while Tennessee is top 5 in limiting explosive run plays. That has to remain the status quo. The Vols can’t make it easy on Alabama by allowing Jam Miller to pop off 20-yard carries. Making Alabama fight for every yard on the ground is crucial when you know they’re going to get some big plays through the air.
Matchups & Personnel
If you tuned out Alabama after their embarrassing season-opening loss to Florida State, you might not realize that game was an anomaly and this Alabama offense is pretty darn good. As much as I hate to credit the kid from Martin who wouldn’t even look at UT, Ty Simpson has been that dude this season. Simpson is a legit Heisman contender, and while he isn’t a threat with his legs like Taylen Green was for Arkansas last week, he is excellent at reading a defense, anticipating and finding open spots, and delivering the ball accurately. Plus, he’s got weapons to throw to: Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard are both top-10 in yards per game in the SEC, while Isaiah Horton is 6th in the league with 4 touchdowns. More notes:
After leaving the Missouri game with concussion-like symptoms, RB Jam Miller has been listed as probable for the game. No comment on the school that produced the modern poster boy for concussions in Tua Tagovailoa pushing a kid back into action after a concussion. Oh, I guess that was a comment.
Bama’s OL is a problem. Parker Brailsford, Geno VandDeMark, Kam Dewberry make up one of the SEC’s best interiors, while Kadyn Proctor has emerged not only as one of the best OTs in America, but a legit threat with the ball in his hand. It’s not a just gimmick, Alabama has trusted Proctor as a receiver and in the wildcat formation in high-pressure situations against UGA and Mizzou.
If there’s a weak spot on the Bama OL, it’s at the other tackle in Wilkin Formby. Bama fans wanted Formby benched after the first few games of the season, then he went and earned the highest PFF grade (93.8) among all OL in week 5—against UGA of all teams.
It will be interesting to see how Formby holds up against Tennessee LEOs Joshua Josephs, Caleb Herring, and the emerging Jordan Ross. In fact, you need to keep your eyes on the trenches as Bama’s OL vs. Tennessee’s DL is a strength-on-strength battle that will go a long way in deciding the game.
The “Key Backups” section of the chart isn’t big enough to list all the Vols that will likely see action in this game. Tennessee had 27 players record a stat on defense against Arkansas.
Alabama FS Bray Hubbard leads the SEC with three interceptions, but only one has come in a SEC game (last week vs. Mizzou)
As good as Ty Simpson has been, the QB in the SEC that has paced Simpson’s stats is Joey Aguilar. The Jaguilar has a slight lead over Simpson in total yards, yards per game, and yards per attempt, though he’s also thrown four more INTs than Simpson and has a lower completion percentage than the Bama QB.
RB DeSean Bishop appeared to injure his leg late in the Arkansas game, but is listed as probable for Saturday. If he can’t go, or is limited, can Peyton Lewis and/or Star Thomas fill his role?
How about OT Lance Heard and the improvement he’s shown this year? For most of 2024, you’d be excused for wondering where his 5-star rating out of high school came from, but he has played very well in the first half of 2025.
Prediction
Since coming to UT, Josh Heupel has done some amazing work. What we haven’t seen him do yet is beat Georgia, or win at Alabama or at Florida. Until I see Tennessee do those things, I have a hard time predicting that they will. If this game was in Knoxville, I’d have no trouble picking the Vols, because I’ve seen them beat Alabama in Neyland twice now. Heck, the last time Tennessee lost to Alabama at home, Jeremy Pruitt was the head coach, and that feels like a lifetime ago. I’ll go ahead and predict a Tennessee win in Neyland next year right now. But a road win? That’s a different story.
However, Tennessee has to win at Alabama eventually. This just might be the time to do it. This Bama team is really good, but it isn’t invincible like the Saban-era teams seemed to be. They have flaws, and if Tennessee can exploit those flaws, they have a chance. The JAR rating has Alabama as a 55% probability to win, but that’s still within the range of a toss up. I believe the game is that close. I have no doubt that Tennessee can score enough to give themselves a chance. And while it’s true that Tennessee’s defense hasn’t been great, do they need to be great? Or do they just need to be good enough?
Unfortunately, as much as I want to talk myself into predicting a Tennessee win, I can’t convince myself that the Vols defense will be good enough. I can see a world where it happens, but until it does, I cannot make myself believe it will.
Home field is worth a TD in this league in my opinion, and between that and the milquetoast secondary play Tennessee has shown this season, Tennessee comes up short in a shootout. Vols 37, Alabama 41