IFTIT: Tennessee Vols at Vanderbilt Commodores Football Preview 2024
Brand New Vanderbilt? Or Same Ol' Vandy?
Recently
Tennessee (#8 CFP, 9-2, 5-2 SEC) demolished UTEP 56-0. After punting away each of their first three turns with the ball, the Vols reached the checkerboards on eight of their next 10 possessions while only allowing the Miners to cross the 50 on three of their last 11 possessions. Also of supreme importance to UT on Saturday, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Indiana all lost, allowing the Vols to climb back into a playoff spot that can be clinched with a win in Nashville this weekend.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt (NR, 6-5, 3-4 SEC) dropped a close game in Baton Rouge, falling to LSU 17-24. It’s been a very Jekyll-and-Hyde season for the Commodores, losing to Georgia State but beating Alabama within a three-game span. Vandy nearly upset Texas, losing 24-27, but also dropped a 7-28 blowout loss to South Carolina. They’ve split overtime games, winning the season opener against Virginia Tech 34-27 in OT, but losing in 2OT 27-30 against Missouri. It’s hard to know from week to week what you’re going to get from this Vanderbilt team—from as dangerous as anyone in the SEC to Sun Belt jobber.
Previously on Vols vs. Dores
Tennessee won a chippy 48-24 contest in Neyland Stadium last November. It was the fifth consecutive win for UT in the series and seventh in the last 10 games, however, before the current Vols streak Vandy could claim having won five of the previous 10 games. It was a rare winning period in the series for the Dores, who have beaten Tennessee a total of seven times in my 46 years on this Earth. The Vols have a commanding 80-32-5 lead in the series all-time, with the lion’s share of Vandy wins coming in the first 30 or so years of the series. In fact, since 1928 Tennessee has shutout Vanderbilt 21 times. Vandy has 14 wins over Tennessee in that time frame. Which means: over the last 96 years, it is more likely for Vanderbilt to not even score against Tennessee than it is for Vanderbilt to beat Tennessee, by a 3:2 margin. (It’s my personal favorite Tennessee football statistic.)
Five Factor Preview & Depth Charts
Tennessee Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
Vandy seems to limit opponents’ explosiveness and scoring opportunities. That is somewhat troubling considering explosiveness has been a weakness for Tennessee as well, but the Vols’ ability to create scoring opportunities has been no problem (although cashing in those opportunities has been another matter).
Looking at teams Tennessee has played this year, it’s hard to find a direct comparison, as the Dores have a unique combination of limiting scoring opportunities while still giving up a fairly high points per opportunity and high success rate.
2-Deep & Personnel
CB #25 Martel Hight leads the SEC and is 4th in FBS with a 16.2 punt return average
Eight Vandy players have an interception this season, but no Vandy player has more than one INT this season
DE #96 Khordae Sydnor and LB #24 Nick Rinaldi (listed 3rd on Vandy’s official depth chart) each lead the team with 4 sacks
LB #4 Brian Longwell leads with 70 total tackles and 7.5 TFL
Tennessee Defense vs. Vanderbilt Offense
Kinda the inverse of Vandy’s defense, the offense struggles to create scoring opportunities, but does a good job of converting those few opportunities into points. The explosiveness and success rate are middling, though, as is their ability to stop havoc plays. Comparing Vandy’s offense to this season’s opponents, they have some statistical similarities to Florida, who Tennessee did struggle with earlier this season.
2-Deep & Personnel
QB #2 Diego Pavia, who came to Nashville from New Mexico State with offensive coordinator Tim Beck and “offensive consultant” Jerry Kill in the offseason, is the straw that stirs the drink for the Commodores. Pavia leads the team in passing (2,029 yards, 16 TD 3 INT) and rushing (671 yds, 6 TD, 61 ypg), and if he could figure out the logistics, he’d probably lead in receiving too.
Instead, the leading receiver is TE #9 Eli Stowers, with 568 yards and 4 TDs (12.9 ypc, 51.6 ypg)
Prediction
Everything is on the line on West End Avenue Saturday. With a win, Tennessee hits their second 10-win season in three years, and more importantly, all but guarantee their first playoff bid in program history. All the Vols have to do to hit those landmarks is beat a team they have historically dominated in a venue that has served as a second home on a biennial basis for decades. All you’ve got to do is something that comes naturally to Tennessee football: Beat Vandy.
However, this is a different Vandy team. Diego Pavia is a dude. He causes problems for opposing defenses running the Jerry Kill spread triple option. He seems to play up to the level of his opponents. The offense uses a ton of motions and shifts to frustrate the defense. There’s also TE Eli Stowers—remember that it was the TE involvement that opened up the UGA offense against Tennessee two weeks ago. If the Dores can scheme Stowers open the way Georgia did with their TEs, it could cause big time problems for Tennessee in this game. And then you have the fact that Tennessee just straight up hasn’t played well on the road under Josh Heupel. And while the Orange support in Nashville should help Tennessee feel more at home, it’s worth noting that Alabama was 1-3 in SEC road games this year, with one of the losses in front of a freindly-ish crowd in Nashville. Tennessee is currently 1-2 on the SEC road this season.
The good news is that despite players like Stowers, who was a legit 4-star coming out of high school, and Pavia, who plays infinitely better than an unrecruited HS QB reserves to, there is a greater talent advantage for Tennessee in this game than any SEC game the Vols have played this season.
Even Mississippi State had a higher talent level in their 2-deep than Vandy does. The Dores’ talent is closer to NC State than any of the Vols’ other opponents. On top of that, Vanderbilt’s offense (which is the most likely unit to give Tennessee trouble in this game) ranks just 116 out of 134 FBS teams, statistically similar to the Oklahoma offense Tennessee held to just 15 points. Since beating Alabama 40-35 on Oct. 5, Vandy has scored more than 20 points just twice: 24 in a win against Ball State and 24 again in the loss against Texas. If the Vols can shut down Pavia and Stover and hold Vandy under 20—which they’ve done to every team this year except Georgia—then the Vols should be able to win what might be at times an uncomfortable game. Vols 29, Vanderbilt 18