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On a sublime Third Saturday in October, Tennessee (#11 AP/#11 Coaches’, 6-1, 3-1 SEC) defeated Alabama 26-10. It was the most complete, most dominant win the Vols have put together in a while, with all three phases of the game controlling the Tide for the vast majority of the contest. The trick now is to avoid the post-big-game hangover that many SEC teams fell victim to last week.
That test will come on the road against a South Carolina (NR, 3-3, 1-3 SEC) team fresh off an open week. Before the bye the Gamecocks went into the Swamp as two-touchdown underdogs and beat then-no. 15 Florida 38-19. It was a Jekyll-and-Hyde moment for SC, as they had lost to Mississippi State, Alabama, and Kentucky in consecutive weeks prior.
Previously on Vols vs Cocks
Tennessee rushed for 238, passed for 239, and sacked Spencer Rattler six times in a Dark Mode 41-20 rout of the Gamecocks in 2023. Kamal Hadden’s 28-yard pick six just before halftime was one of 2023’s defining moments. It was the end of a series that had been played yearly since 1992, and which the Vols lead 29-11-2.
Of course, that win was payback, if such a thing could be achieved, for the 2022 game in Williams-Bryce Stadium that knocked UT out of playoff contention. Despite the Vols having a commanding series lead, and even a winning record in Columbia (UT is 10-8-2 there), Tennessee is just 2-6 in Columbia since 2008. There’s also an unsettling pattern of significant Tennessee losses there. In 1992, a loss to UofSC capped a three-game losing streak after UT started the season 5-0 and ranked #4. It was the last straw in Johnny Majors’ career as the Vols’ head coach. In 2016 Tennessee controlled its own SEC Championship Game destiny, but lost that spot after falling to Carolina 24-21. And the topper, that 2022 debacle.
There’s been some great wins in Columbia too, though. Tee Martin set the NCAA record for consecutive completions there in 1998. Josh Dobbs flashed on the scene, bringing the Vols back from a 14-point deficit twice in a 45-42 OT win. Heck even the 2020 team got an early-season win there that extended what was at the time the nation’s longest win streak. Even with Halloween around the corner, Williams-Bryce doesn’t have to be a house of horrors.
Five Factor Preview & JAR
A week ago in this space I said the keys to Tennessee beating Alabama were creating havoc plays on defense and not having empty scoring opportunities on offense. The Vols checked both those boxes. So ok, genius, do it again.
One area that stands out is how much Tennessee’s defense has limited explosiveness by opposing offenses. LaNorris Sellers is a talented, veteran QB. Can he solve the puzzles Jim Knowles will throw at him? Or will the Tennessee defense continue to suffocate their opposition?
The other area that grabs my attention is again points per opportunity. Last week I worried that all the early field goals Josh Heupel was opting for wouldn’t be enough to get the job done. It turns out they were, but it still seems like Tennessee is leaving a lot of meat on the bone in that respect. UT’s points per opportunity was up near six early in the season, but has steadily fallen in SEC play. This week presents an chance to reverse trend, as Carolina is bottom-10% in PPO allowed nationally.
Winning last week did a lot of work for the Vols’ projected finish. Suddenly 10-2 is much more likely than 8-4. It’s been a gauntlet to get here, and there’s plenty more ahead, but if Tennessee can get to the open date at 7-1, there’s everything to lay for on the back end of the schedule.
Matchups & Personnel
The Gamecocks offense presents a unique challenge for a Tennessee defense that has played outstanding ball the last few weeks. Jim Knowles’ unit should be able to handle the Carolina front with little problem. But LaNorris Sellers and Matthew Fuller are one of the most explosive rushing duos in the SEC, with a combined six runs of 30+ yards and 4 runs of 50+ yards (Tennessee has one 50+ yard run this year). Sellers also has a plethora of talented receivers to target. Containing Sellers is priority #1 for the Vols Saturday.
The front seven of the Carolina defense is their strength, particularly on the edges. There you will find former Vol Caleb Herring and All-American Dylan Stewart. The good news for UT is that the Gamecock defense is geared more toward stopping the pass with front seven havoc. Whereas most 4-2-5 defenses play with a pass-rushing EDGE to the passing strength and a run-stopping DE to the run strength, SC plays two EDGE rushers and the tackles are a little lighter than what UT saw against Alabama last week. Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy is the only DT in the rotation that weight north of 300 lbs., but the DT rotation is deep and full of talented players. The back end of Carolina’s defense is a weaker point, though how much Tennessee can exploit that weakness with the pass game remains to be seen.
Prediction
Tennessee should win this game because they are the better team. But it’s the road in the SEC. It’s a stadium that has caused problems for this program historically, and it’s game eight in a row against a talented team off a week of rest. There’s a lot going against the Vols here. UT is mentally and physically exhausted. Carolina is fresh. And importantly, Carolina is a better team than they looked though the first third of their SEC schedule. There’s a lot going against the Vols here.
And then there’s Vegas. When the line opened Sunday, Tennessee was a 2.5-point favorite. Hours later, the line had completely flipped and suddenly the Gamecocks were were favored by 2.5. One has to imagine bettors hopping on what looks like a trend in the SEC this year: big, emotional wins followed by enormous let-downs. Ole Miss beats Lane Kiffin and LSU, then gets walloped by Florida. The Gators then go on to be routed by Missouri, who was in turn beat down by Ole Miss. Oklahoma wins the Red River shootout then falls to Kentucky. Georgia beats Alabama, then drops the next week to Auburn.
But that very trend set so far, coupled with the line change, probably works in Tennessee’s favor. Imagine beating Alabama and then being told that you’re an underdog to a 1-3 conference team. There’s few motivators better than “us against the world”, and UT has that in their pocket this weekend. It’s entirely possible that the ravages of eight straight games, with the last 5 being SEC games, takes a toll the Vols can’t overcome. All else being equal, though, Tennessee is the better team and should win this game. JAR says UT 32, SCAR 21. I’m not sure either team can score that many. I’ll say Tennessee 27, South Carolina 17.