IFTIT: Tennessee Vols at Oklahoma Sooners Football Preview (9/21/24)

Tell OU the welcome committee's coming, and they're bringing hell with them

Recently

Tennessee (#6 AP/#7 Coaches’, 3-0, 0-0 SEC) did unmentionable things to Kent State last week. The Vols barely broke a sweat in putting up 71 points and 740 yards of offense.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma (#15/#13, 3-0, 0-0 SEC) beat Tulane 34-19, pulling away after leading by just five points in the fourth quarter.

Previously on Vols vs. Sooners

Tennessee lost a heartbreaking 24-31 double-overtime contest to Oklahoma at Neyland in 2015. The Vols led 17-3 with 8:30 left in the game, but Baker Mayfield accounted for four TDs in the 4th quarter plus overtimes to give OKU the victory. At the time, while a disappointment for sure, it felt like the bricks Butch Jones was trying to lay were starting to come together. In hindsight, the failure to close out a game that Tennessee had mostly dominated was a harbinger of worse things to come, as Butch would never fail to find fresh ways to dash the Big Orange hopes.

Overall, this will be the fifth meeting between the Sooners and Vols, with OU holding a 3-1 lead. Despite the rarity of games between the schools, there is a surprising amount of history shared here. Tennessee beat OU in the 1939 Orange Bowl 17-0, Oklahoma’s first bowl game in school history. Oklahoma got the get-back in the 1968 Orange Bowl, beating the Vols 24-26. This will also be the fourth time the schools have met with both teams being ranked in the top 25.

But obviously the biggest link between the schools is Josh Heupel, who quarterbacked OU to a national championship in 2000 while breaking dang near every passing record in school history (Heupel to this day is still top five in passing yards and touchdowns in the Sooner record books). Heupel then began his coaching career in Norman, working his way from graduate assistant to offensive coordinator over the span of 11 years. As a player and coach, Heupel contributed to a 137-36 (.792%) record, ten 10-win seasons, and seven Big 12 championships before being unceremoniously fired by Bob Stoops, scapegoated for Stoops’ flailing control of the program. Between the Oklahoma media notes for this game reducing Heupel’s OU career to a single bullet point, and Stoops’ own reluctance refusal to say anything this week, it’s obvious that OKU wants to downplay this aspect of the game as much as possible. But even though he’ll never say it publicly, you know this game is deeply personal for Coach Josh Heupel. How and if that affects the outcome is yet to be seen.

As a footnote, it’s also worth point out that Tennessee OC Joey Halzle holds two degrees from Oklahoma and played QB under Heupel in Norman, while UT assistants Mike Ekeler and Willie Martinez were at different times also on the same Oklahoma staff as Heupel. Oh, and it’s OU’s first conference game as a member of the SEC. Storylines much?

Five Factor Preview & Personnel

Tennessee Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense

The Tennessee Offense has been a house of fire so far this season, but the OU defense hasn’t been too shabby itself. Scoring opportunities, success rate, havoc plays—both squads have been terrific this season at making it happen or preventing it. Oklahoma is big in the front seven, and athletic on the back end.

Up front, DE Ethan Downs is OU’s active career sack leader (10.5) and second in TFLs (25.0). NT Damonic WIlliams was a 2022 true freshman All-American when he played at TCU and the Horned Frogs played for the national championship. He’s backed up by Da’Jon Terry, who played for Tennessee in ‘21 and ‘22. DE R Mason Thomas has 3 sacks and 4 TFLs this season; with a forced fumble, recovery, PBU, and QB hurry in last week’s game against Tulane.

In the middle is MLB Danny Stutsman, preseason All American and a 3rd-team All-American in 2023. He’s the Sooners active leader with 29.5 TFLs, along with 7 sacks and 3 INTs. Behind him at SS is Billy Bowman, current Sooner career leader with 10 INTs, he’s also a preseason All-SEC pick and 2nd-team All-American after being a CBS Sports/247 Sports All-American in 2023.

It’s worth noting that Lance Heard is listed as questionable at LT for the Vols, though there have been whispers that he’s going to give it a go if he can at all. Honestly, with the way Tennessee has used the power run game and pulling tackles this season, you might be better off with a 100% tackle by committee than a 70% Lance Heard (and I’m a huge Lance Heard fan).

Tennessee Defense vs. Oklahoma Offense

Here’s where I believe Tennessee has the edge. Obviously this will be the stiffest test the Vol defense has faced this year, but the UT D has been so good thus far, while the OU offense—despite the mostly green averages above—has underperformed. Even Sooner fans would largely admit that Jackson Arnold hasn’t played at the level they’d like, and the offense has been playing behind the chains a lot (thus the low success rate highlighted in red).

Jovantae Barnes leads the Sooners RBs with 126 rush yards (Dylan Sampson has 363 yards for UT by comparison), but it’s Arnold who leads the team in rushing with 159 yards and 2 TDs. WR Deion Burks has 22 catches, a school record for an opening three-game stretch and 2nd-best in the SEC. But it’s the OL that gives Tennessee a real opportunity to make a difference in this game. The Sooners have given up nine sacks through three games so far, placing OU in the bottom 14% of teams.

Prediction

Strip away the hype, the Huep, the pomp and circumstance surrounding this game, and you’re left with what should be—on paper—a very close game, practically a toss up. But they don’t play games on paper, and the pomp & circumstance can’t be shed when College Gameday sets up shop, and the hype surrounding the baptism of a new SEC opponent can’t be un-factored. And then there’s Coach Josh Heupel’s homecoming and the emotions that will stir up on both sides. Each of those are variables, and we won’t know their full effect until game’s end.

What we do know is that Tennessee, to this point in the season, has played better ball than Oklahoma has. It’s true that the Vols have not played very stiff competition, but it’s not like the Sooners’ schedule (Temple, Houston, Tulane) is made up of worldbeaters either, and OU was in a five-point game in the fourth quarter against a team objectively much worse than Tennessee just last week. Oklahoma has the talent in place to turn their season around and become a real contender in Year 1 of the SEC, and that could start Saturday night. But based on what we’ve seen from each team so far this year, there’s no reason to think that will happen. Tennessee is 29-3 under Josh Heupel when the team scores 30+. They’re 27-3 when rushing for 150+. There’s no reason to think those milestones won’t be reached Saturday night in Norman. In fact, it’s much more likely that Tennessee wins by double-digits. Vols 38, Oklahoma 20.