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DeSean Bishop rushed for a career high 220 yards and 3 TDs as Tennessee (#15 AP/#14 Coaches, 4-1, 1-1 SEC) beat Auburn 24-14 last Saturday in Neyland. Naturally, the talk this week has focused on UT’s change at QB as George MacIntyre entered the game late in the 2nd half and guided the Vol offense on three touchdown drives. But the focus should really be on some tremendous individual stat lines in that game including Bishop’s performance; S Dejuan Lane’s nine tackles, two sacks, 2.5 TFLs and a pick; and P Jackson Ross landing five kicks inside the Auburn 11-yard line, with three of those inside the five.
Meanwhile Arkansas (NR, 2-3, 0-2 SEC) fell at Texas A&M 34-17. The Hogs have struggled against FBS opponents this season, also losing to Utah 43-10 and Georgia 45-17. Also interesting to note that Arkansas gave up a touchdown on each of those opponent’s opening drive.
Previously on Vols vs. Hogs
Tennessee beat Arkansas 34-31 last October in Knoxville. After a competitive first half that saw UT overcome two seven-point deficits, Tennessee scored 24 straight points for a 34-17 lead before Arkansas added a couple of garbage time TDs to make the final score look closer than the game really was (backup QB Jake Merklinger was taking snaps in the 4th quarter, for example).
Of course, that’s somewhat burying the lead, as last year’s game was a must-win revenge game for the previous year’s loss at Arkansas. The 2024 Vols lost just three games: one to National Champion Ohio State, one to SEC Champion Georgia, and one to 7-6 Arkansas in the Den of Inequity known as Razorback Stadium.
And that’s the real story of this series. Tennessee does not win in Fayetteville. Not just football, which has a 2-5 record in Fayetteville, but baseball (a 13-25 record there, including the 2025 Super Regional loss), and basketball (5-13, just 1-4 under Rick Barnes) have all gone to Northwest Arkansas and struggled. Actually that’s not strictly true: Tennessee football has never lost in Little Rock (3-0, last playing there in 1997), it’s just Fayetteville proper that gives the Vols fits.
Five Factor Preview & JAR
JAR was born in part because I knew in 2024 that Arkansas was going to be a dangerous game for UT, but I didn’t know how to quantify it. A rudimentary version of the system showed that of the teams on that year’s schedule, Arkansas had a sneaky-high talent level that matched up with Tennessee, and considering the Vols’ tendency to lose a road game they shouldn’t, the Fayetteville road trip was always going to be a trap in 2024. Thankfully the more developed version of JAR shows a much weaker Arkansas team waiting for UT’s visit:
In fact, JAR sees Arkansas as the weakest team left on Tennessee’s schedule, by far, and more in line with Kennesaw State than even the weakest SEC games left on the Vols’ slate.
(Looking ahead, if you dare, JAR has downgraded the Alabama game from a tossup to a loss—we’ll see if that holds after this week’s games.)
Matchups & Personnel
Last week I pointed out the number of USF transfers playing for Auburn. This week it’s the same story for former Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield, who brought a host of Tigers with him when he was hired by the Hogs.
Also, just like was pointed out with Alex Golesh last week, Silverfield has a surprisingly poor coach effect record. One would assume that these mid-major coaches that have enough success to be picked up by Power 4 programs would have run roughshod over less talented teams at their level, but for two coaches in two weeks now, that hasn’t been the case.
George MacIntyre will get his first start as the Vols QB, getting the opportunity to lead the MASH unit known as Tennessee offense and trying to do what no UT QB since Casey Clausen has done: win in Fayetteville.
MacIntyre should find the offense a little easier to run this week, as this will be the weakest DL Tennessee has faced in weeks. The Arkansas front seven isn’t particularly dynamic outside of DE Quincy Rhodes and Khmori House, who leads the Hogs in sacks and TFLs from his STAR position.
Still, the question remains until Tennessee answers it: can the Vols protect the QB long enough to develop explosive passing plays? Dynamic front seven or not, every DC in the conference must be licking his chops seeing how porous the Vols’ OL has been this season.
Prediction
There’s no reason for the Vols to lose this game. But that could be said about several of the games UT has lost over there the last couple of decades. And then there’s the fact that Tennessee’s offense has been downright anemic of late. JAR predicts Tennessee 45-0. There’s a good chance that the game will be much closer than that simply because Tennessee could struggle to move the ball once again. The worry is always that the longer you let the underdog hang around, the bigger chance there is for an upset.
I think I’ve belabored the point that Tennessee has had little success in Fayetteville. The other side of the coin, though, is that Arkansas hasn’t had much success in Fayetteville lately either. It’s been dang near mutiny this season for the Arkansas athletic department. Ryan Silverfield never got the chance to win over his home crowd because they have so much disdain for AD Hunter Yurachek. Hog fans have been wearing bags on their heads, and that’s if they go to the games at all.
Tennessee will beat Arkansas, and the Fayetteville losing streak will come to an end. And while it should be a comfortable win in the neighborhood of 45-0 as JAR says, until the Vols offense shows they can put up those points in a SEC game, I’ll call it a more conservative Tennessee 31, Arkansas 13.