IFTIT: Tennessee Vols at Arkansas Razorbacks Preview 2024

One of the SEC's weirdest series resumes Saturday

Recently

Tennessee (#4 AP/#4 Coaches’, 4-0, 1-0 SEC) enjoyed a week off that saw a rise in the polls after losses by Ole Miss and Georgia. The Vols now bite into the meat of their schedule, starting with this weekend’s trip to Arkansas, and followed by games against Florida, Alabama, and Kentucky over the next month.

Meanwhile Arkansas (NR, 3-2, 1-1 SEC) lost to Texas A&M in the final “Southwest Classic” being played off-campus between the two schools. Arkansas led the game in the 4th quarter and outgained the Aggies by 80+ yards, but couldn’t overcome giving away two fumbles and an interception.

Previously on Vols vs. Hogs

For two schools that have met fewer than 20 times in 100+ years, there has been plenty of weirdness in this series. Tennessee and Arkansas were shoehorned into an artificial “rivalry” as cross-division permanent opponents when the Hogs joined the SEC in 1992. The Vols had recently capped a 10-win, SEC Championship season by beating Arkansas in the 1990 Cotton Bowl, but the Razorbacks’ first trip to Knoxville in 1992 saw the Hogs ambush a top-5 Tennessee team 24-25 in Johnny Majors’ first game back from heart surgery. Of course there’s the Clint Stoerner “stumble and fumble” in 1998’s clash of then-unbeaten teams, followed by a stunning 24-28 defeat in Fayetteville in 1999 that ended Tennessee’s hopes of playing for a second-straight national title.

There’s other odd and memorable occurrences in this series too. How about Jason Witten’s game-winning TD in six overtimes in 2002? Or Joe Adams’ 60-yard punt return for the Hogs in 2011’s 7-49 loss to Arkansas—yes that punt return which became a staple for clowning the state of UT’s program at the time, and which was observed by Derrick Dooley from his perch atop a stool on the sideline. The Vols lost the most recent meeting of these teams—and I bet you’ve repressed this memory just as I had—when a 13-0 halftime lead melted as Arkansas scored 24 straight in the second half, while Harrison Bailey threw two picks in a 13-24 losing effort.

Tennessee owns a 13-6 lead in this series, but has lost four of the last five and hasn’t won in Fayetteville since 2001 (although that’s just three games).

Tennessee Offense vs. Arkansas Defense

Arkansas has allowed a fairly high number of scoring opportunities, but has done a good job of limiting points off those opportunities, allowing right at a field goal per. The Hogs’ defense does not create a ton of havoc plays, but they do hold opposing offenses to a pretty low success rate.

Despite not creating a lot of havoc, DE Landon Jackson (an All-SEC preseason pick) had 3 TFLs with 2 sacks last week against TAMU, and his backup Quincey Rhodes got his first career sack against the Aggies as well. The Razorbacks’ linebacking corps is stocked with transfer players: Xavian Sorey played three years at Georgia, Stephen Dix played two years at FSU and was a Freshman All-American before transferring to Marshall and then to Arkansas, and Anthony Switzer played at Utah State and Arkansas State before landing in Fayetteville. On the back end of the defense, TJ Metcalf leads the Hogs with three INTs this season, while former Vol Doneiko Slaughter added a pick against Auburn in Arkansas’ win on the plains two weeks ago.

Tennessee Defense vs. Arkansas Offense

Tennessee has held opposing offenses to a success rate under 30% this season, which is really pretty incredible. Arkansas’ own success rate up near 50% is pretty snazzy too, and this will be a key to look for in the game: can Tennessee keep the Arkansas offense, which has seen a significant upturn under OC Bobby Petrino, off schedule and behind the chains? If so, the Vols should have a pleasant evening in Razorback Stadium. The fact that Arkansas has allowed a pretty high number of havoc plays, while the Vols have made a significant number of havoc plays themselves, should help.

Arkansas has the SEC’s best third-down offense, converting on 41/74 (54%) on third downs so far this year. Having your QB be the team’s second-leading rusher helps with those conversions, and that’s exactly the case for QB Taylen Green, who has rushed for 331 yards and four touchdowns in an offense that averages 240 rushing yards per game and ranks third in the country in rushing TDs (18). But if the idea of a running QB makes your BVS flare up, keep in mind that after posting three games with 80+ yards rushing, Texas A&M held Green to just 6 yards on the ground last week. That rushing attack is also powered by Utah transfer RB Ja’Quinden Jackson, who leads the SEC in yards rushing with 509 yards (but trails Dylan Sampson in yards/game) and has scored in every game this season. However, Jackson was held to 37 yards on 10 carries by A&M. In the passing game, WR Andrew Armstrong has emerged as Green’s top target, with his 29 receptions and 7.3 receptions per game (both good for 2nd in SEC), with 420 receiving yards at 105 yards/game (both 3rd in the SEC).

Prediction

Tennessee is a 13.5-point road favorite heading into Saturday night. However, there are weird vibes that seem to follow Tennessee-Arkansas. That 1992 Razorback team that knocked off #4 Tennessee had lost to The Citadel of all schools earlier that year and also lost to Memphis State and SMU on their way to a 3-7-1 finish. The 1999 squad that beat #3 UT finished 4-4 in the SEC and 8-4 overall. Darren McFadden sliced through the Vols for 191 yards in 2006. The Joe Adams punt return. And those are just some of Tennessee’s losses in the series; many of the wins have had their own bizarre twists of fate as well. And when you factor in upcoming games against rivals Florida and Alabama on the horizon, this seems like a perfect setup for a classic trap game.

However.

The Vols are coming off a bye week, and Josh Heupel is 8-1 in his career off a bye (3-0 at Tennessee). The one post-bye loss for CJH came in 2020 at UCF, when a last-second 49-yard field goal sailed wide of the goalpost. Heupel’s teams score 44.8 points on average following a bye. Arkansas is in the bottom third of SEC teams in scoring defense. Everything points to UT putting up a bunch of points Saturday, and even with Arkansas’ stout running attack, you’d have to doubt their ability to match Tennessee score-for-score. Vols 41, Arkansas 16