IBTIT: Tennessee Vols in the College World Series Preview
It's Baseball Time in Omaha
Recently: Tennessee looked like they would make quick work of Evansville in the Super Regional. After winning game 1 on Friday, UT opened Saturday morning’s game with three HRs in the first inning before giving up 10 runs in the 4th, 5th, and 6th innings. Despite a 9th-inning comeback that ended with the bases loaded and Christian Moore at bat, Tennessee had to wait until Sunday to finish off the Aces and advance to the College World Series. It was a surprising result not only because Tennessee, as the no. 1 national seed was tested by a regional 4-seed, but also because the other teams that ended up in Tennessee’s CWS bracket (FSU, UNC, and UVA) swept their Supers opponents on the way to Omaha.
Previously on Vols vs. the World: You want a revenge tour? I’ll give you a revenge tour. Start with Friday’s opponent, the only team UT is guaranteed to face in Omaha, Florida State. UT doesn’t have a rich history with any of the schools in this bracket, but have faced the Seminoles more than the other two teams, with an all-time record of 4-6 against FSU. That’s not the revenge factor though. Florida State is skippered by Link Jarrett, who was the head coach at Notre Dame when the Irish came to Knoxville and knocked off the #1-seed Vols in the 2022 Super Regional. Of course, those ‘22 Vols would have been widely considered one of the best college baseball teams of all time had they gone to Omaha and won it all. Obviously this is not that UT team, and this is FSU not Notre Dame. But there are some demons to exercise when Tony Vitello faces Link Jarrett Friday (and potentially more times over the next week).
And that’s not the only revenge storyline. This Tennessee run under Vitello really started gaining momentum in 2019 when the Vols made it to the Chapel Hill Regional final before falling to the Tar Heels, who UT is 2-5 against all-time. Tennessee took another step in 2021 when they made it to Omaha for the first time since 2005 before losing to Virginia 0-6 in the only ever meeting between the schools. These factors won’t matter much to the actual gameplay in Omaha, but will make the next week-plus either a cathartic or frustrating experience for the Vols faithful.
Preview Graphic:
Tennessee already won the SEC regular season and tournament titles. Now apparently they have to win the ACC too. Ok, then.
The College World Series field is incredibly deep this year. Only one non-nationally seeded team made it to Omaha, and it’s Florida, who was in the championship finals a year ago and has one of the best players in America in Jac Caglianone.
In Tony Vitello’s epic rant following the Vols’ win over Evansville Sunday, Tennessee’s skipper claimed UT is playing with “house money” in Omaha, a statement that seems ludicrous coming from the 1-seed’s vantage point. But considering the strength of this tournament field, Vitello’s claim is accurate. The fact that no #1 seed has won this tournament in 25 years has less to do with any curse and more to do with the war of attrition this tournament puts you through. The Vols open with the highest probability (according to simulations from warrennolan.com) to advance from their bracket, but just the 2nd highest to win the whole thing, trailing Texas A&M:
And despite A&M having the highest probability to win it all, of the six most probable teams, four of them (including the Vols) are on UT’s side of the bracket. For example, Tennessee has to contend with:
FSU’s Jamie Arnold, the likely game 1 starter, who is probably the best pitcher in Omaha
UNC’s Vance Honeycutt, an outfield vacuum cleaner who basically won the Super Regional-clinching game for the Tar Heels against West Virginia with a leadoff homerun and a game-clinching run scored later
A Virginia team whose lineup depth probably most closely mirrors Tennessee’s. For example, C/DH Ethan Anderson has a .333 average and leads the Cavs with 58 career doubles (20 this year) and he hits in the 7-hole
Of course, the other side of the coin is those teams have to deal with all the strengths of Tennessee’s roster, and there are many of them. You can see from the graphic above the Vols dominate this bracket statistically. But will it be an advantage or disadvantage that by landing in the ACC-heavy bracket, Tennessee hasn’t seen any of these teams this year? Conversely, they haven’t seen UT either. And should the Vols advance, they will likely face a SEC team that they’ve already beaten this year—can they do it again? But that’s a question we hopefully get to ask a week from now. Until then, try to enjoy the meatgrinder that Tennessee faces over the next six or seven days.
Great work!