IBTIT: Tennessee Vols at Kentucky Wildcats Baseball Series Preview (April 19, 20, 21)

It's Bluegrass Time in Tennessee

Picked to finish 10th in the SEC by the league’s coaches, Kentucky (31-5, 14-1 SEC) has breezed through their conference schedule so far in 2024. Not only are the Cats four games up on Tennessee (31-6, 10-5 SEC) in the East division win column, they have outscored their league competition 142-57, and they’ve done it playing small ball: UK leads the SEC in stolen bases and sacrifice hits. Of course, the Vols can score too, leading the conference and the nation with 101 homeruns. How will this clash of styles play out over the weekend?

Recently: Last weekend. Tennessee swept defending national champions LSU (6-3, 3-1, 8-4) and won their midweek game against Bellarmine 20-5. Meanwhile, Kentucky was sweeping Auburn on the Plains (6-5, 9-1, 13-8) before beating Louisville 17-13 on Tuesday.

Previously on Vols vs. Cats: Tennessee won two of three against the Cats last season in Knoxville, and have won six of the last 10 against UK overall. UT has an all-time lead of 182-155 in the series that dates back to 1909, but the Vols trail 73-80 when playing in Lexington.

Trying something different with the preview graphic this week:

Tennessee, as you can see, is a fly-ball hitting team. The Vols hit 50% of batted balls as flies (the highest rate among all teams), and 22% of those are home runs. That’s the second-highest rate in NCAA, and it translates to a nation-leading 101 homers for the Vols. By comparison, Kentucky hits just 38% fly balls with 15% of them being homers. But the Cats are playing a whole other style—it’s a ground game for UK, with 44% of their batted balls being on the ground. And with their insane number of stolen bases (79, on 99 attempts), Kentucky minimizes the risk of hitting into double plays, instead driving home a ton of runs.

What makes this matchup even more compelling is how the pitching style of each team matches with the opponent’s hitting style. Tennessee is a ground-ball pitching staff, with 49% of opponents’ batted balls being on the ground (a league high). Kentucky conversely coerces 41% of opponents’ balls to be flies (third highest in the SEC), with 9% being popups (2nd best, behind Arkansas). And despite all those fly balls, just 7% become home runs, tops among SEC pitching staffs.

You can see this in what will likely (UK hasn’t named starters for the weekend) be the Saturday matchup between Drew Beam (5-1, 3.16 ERA) and Kentucky’s Dominic Niman (7-2, 3.40 ERA). Nearly half of Niman’s batted balls are flies, but he gives up a miniscule 3% of them as home runs. What happens when he faces Christian Moore, who also hits about 50% of his batted balls in the air, but with 27% of those going out of the park? How about Beam, a ground-ball pitcher, against Ryan Nicholson, one of UK’s best batters who leads the Cats in RBI, slugging, OPS, and—despite being a ground-ball-heavy hitter—home runs?

That’s the question of the weekend in a microcosm. Whose style wins? Do the pitching styles of each team play into the hands of both offenses, leading to an explosion of runs on each side? Or does one approach dominate the other for a series sweep? Can the Vols go bomb their way out of small-ball hell? The RPI predictions say no, with UT having no greater than a 46% win probability in any game this weekend:

The outlook was just as dire, though, the last time UT took to the road, two weeks ago against Auburn. Tennessee ended up winning that series. This one is a little different though, as UK is a much more proven team at this point in the season. Let’s hope the Vols can get a win Friday or Saturday to force a rubber match, as the Vols are 8-1 on Sundays this season, including 3-1 in rubber matches, as well as being 16-10 in rubber games since Tony Vitello took over in 2018.