Can Tennessee Finally Break Through Against Georgia?
IFTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Georgia Bulldogs Football Preview 2025
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Tennessee (#15/15, 2-0, 0-0 SEC) did what you’re supposed to do against an in-state FCS foe and mollywhomped ETSU 72-17 on Saturday. It was the eighth time in the Josh Heupel era that UT scored 60+ and the fourth instance of amassing over 700 yards of offense in that same time frame.
Georgia (#6/3, 2-0, 0-0 SEC) also played a FCS team from the Volunteer State, beating Austin Peay 28-6. One could easily drag the Dawgs for not blowing out their supposed cupcake opponent. But remember, Tennessee struggled to put away the Govs just a couple of years ago in a weather-affected game just like UGA had Saturday. That UT team then immediately went on the road to open SEC play and got dominated… oh, snap, is it happening!?!?
Previously on Vols vs. Dawgs
A year ago Tennessee went to Athens and jumped out to an early 10-0 lead. But the game was tied 17-17 at halftime, and the Vols’ offense sputtered in the second half as Georgia put the game away 31-17. Do remember though, it was a one-score game with two minutes and change left. It was the most competitive UT has been against UGA in recent memory, held back by a lack of dynamics in Tennessee’s offense.
Georgia is 13-2 in the series since 2010. Before that, Tennessee lead the series 21-14-2, but UGA’s recent run (including the last 8 games in a row) has given the Dawgs a 29-23-2 lead overall. This is potentially the last annual game in a series that has been played yearly since 1992, as the SEC schedule is set to change next season, and it seems unlikely that UT and UGA will be one of each other’s protected rivalry games.
Five Factor Preview
The Five Factor Tracker is back and better than ever, expanded with even more stats that I’m not sure I really understand for the 2025 season:
What you’re looking at: on the left side, Tennessee’s Offense vs. Georgia’s Defense. The stats at the top are the most important ones—the “Five Factors” that most often correlate to winning. The ones below are related stats that I have, so why not use them, right?
The numbers are color-coded so you don’t have to know what they mean—green means the team does that thing well, red means they don’t do that thing well, yellow is middling. The greener (or redder) the number is, the better (or worse) they are at it. You want to see lots of green for your team, and lots of red/yellow for the other guys.
Unfortunately, you might notice that there’s more red/yellow in the Tennessee columns. Does that mean the Vols are doomed? Not necessarily, but it does explain why UGA has a higher JAR rating and why JAR only puts the Vols at a 33% of winning. Keep in mind that neither team has played much in the way of stiff competition, and both teams have only played a couple of games. The sample sizes are small and perhaps unreliable at this point in the season.
Personnel and Matchups
All week long, every time I’ve thought about this matchup and wanted to predict a Tennessee win, the thing that’s held me back is the injury situation. You don’t really want to go into SEC play missing both starting corners, and especially when they are All-American or All-SEC quality like Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson are. Colton Hood has played exceptionally well. Ty Redmond has been a total pleasant surprise. Still feels a little bad going into this matchup without either of Gibson or McCoy.
Then there’s the DL. Daevin Hobbs is out. Tyree Weathersby and Jaxson Moi are listed as questionable. The defensive line is already much thinner than it was last year, will Moi be available to shore up this unit? It could be an inflection point in the game.
Then there’s the issue of UGA’s tight ends. Georgia has put the game out of reach in the past by exploiting matchups with TEs. If they can isolate a TE on Jeremiah Telander, does he have the speed to keep up? If they can isolate a TE on Boo Carter, does he have the size to defend? UT has to find an answer to the Georgia tight end equation to have a chance on Saturday.
Speaking of TEs, I do not believe UGA has used Zachariah Branch like USC used him—which is as a psudo-TE. The Trojans would line Branch up attached to the line in order to create mismatches (he’d even sometimes block like a TE even though he does not have the build for it). If Branch looks out of place on the graphic above, that is why.
And speaking of out of place on the graphic above: a word about Kirby Smart’s “Coach Effect”. The point of the Coach Effect stat is to see how coaches perform relative to the talent level of the players they’re coaching. Josh Heupel has a plus Coach Effect—meaning he’s often won against teams that have a higher talent level more than he’s lost against teams with a lower talent level. Kirby has a negative Coach Effect, which is insane since he’s widely considered the best in the game right now. However, he almost never has a chance to get a “+” in the Coach Effect win column because he almost never plays against a team with a higher talent level. Nearly every game Georgia plays, they are the more talented team. So by default, any loss ends up a negative on Kirby’s Coach Effect. Even Kirby’s first year, when UGA lost five games, all five were to teams with a lower talent level than the Dawgs. Jimmys and Joes matter, and Georgia is almost always the Jimmiest.
A year ago Tennessee established the line of scrimmage and outrushed the Dawgs 152 yards to 106. What limited the Vols’ offense was a lack of explosive passes. The longest UT completion on the day was just 17 yards, and the TEs and RBs had almost as many receptions (9) as the WRs did (11).
Turn the page to 2025. Tennessee has a mostly revamped—and many would say improved—OL. They have played well so far this season, and that’s without supposed starter and 5-star talent David Sanders not playing a snap so far. Does Sanders play Saturday? Does he start?
AND does the RB firm of Bishop, Lewis, and Star perform as well as Dylan Sampson did against the Dawgs a year ago?
AND does Joey Aguilar get rewarded for his gunslinger play like he did on the 50+ yard improv toss to Mike Matthews last weekend? Or does UGA punish risky plays like that? It’s a lot of questions to be answered.
On the Georgia defense side, there’s not a lot of returning starters from last season, but there is a ton of talent as always.
Despite the lack of returning starters, there is still a god amount of playing experience. DB KJ Bolden, for example, did not start for the Dawgs last year, but made enough of an impression to be named a Preseason All-American by several selectors.
Prediction
I want to tell you that Tennessee is going to win this game, but recent results makes it hard to do so. In the eye test, UT has played better than Georgia has so far this year—but the sample size is tiny, and neither team has played a level of competition that lets you glean much real data.
It seems that UGA has a higher ceiling just because they have a higher talent level. But they’ve not approached anywhere near that ceiling yet his year; do they put it all together Saturday? Has Tennessee played near their ceiling yet? And do they have to break through that ceiling to have a chance against the Dawgs?
It’s weird to talk about talent in this matchup. Tennessee has finally broken into the Blue Chip Ratio standings, meaning they have the talent level that has been prerequisite for every champion for the last decade-plus. Georgia has stacked top recruiting classes for so long it feels like there’s nothing but four and five star players on their roster. But UT has a talent disadvantage against Alabama too, yet the Vols have been much more competitive against the Tide than against the Dawgs. Why? Is it matchup-based? Is it what position groups the talent is amassed in? Has Kirby solved the Josh Heupel problem in a way that even Nick Saban struggled to do?
And then there’s my own creation—the JAR rating—that is telling me this game won’t really be that close. JAR has Georgia with a 67% chance to win, outside of the parameters of what is considered even a toss-up. On the other hand, I know where the bones are buried with that formula, and I know that it’s undervaluing Tennessee’s offense right now, especially the contributions of transfers like Joey Aguilar and Star Thomas, and underused players from last season like Mike Matthews. The game should be registering as something closer to a toss-up, and when you add in a rabid Neyland Stadium crowd? The Vols have better than a puncher’s chance.
Everything that tells me I should pick UGA is based on past performance. Georgia recruited better, Georgia won the last eight games. But you can also point to some other performances in the not-too-distant past. The Dawgs went on the road last year and nearly lost to Kentucky (scraping by 13-12) and then losing on the road to Alabama and Ole Miss. They did have an impressive win at Texas, but that suddleny feels like an outlier compared to the other three examples.
Additionally, this year, Georgia has not played like the better team. Something feels different about this Tennessee team. But it’s not just emotion—Tennessee showed more offensive creativity in the Syracuse game than they have in two years since Alex Golesh left for South Florida. They’ve created more pressure on defense with the back seven than they have over the last couple years of letting the DL create havoc. It could very well be that the Dawgs put it all together Saturday and run Tennessee out of their own house. But I’m taking the team that looks more dynamic right now. Tennessee 31, Georgia 27.