Tennessee (27-14, 8-10 SEC) has gone 3-2 over its last five games, including a midweek 14-4 run-rule victory over Lipscomb. But a series loss to Ole Miss is what looms large in the rearview, despite the Vols managing to take the series finale. The Volunteers’ offense has been on a power surge, launching 10 home runs over their last two contests. Henry Ford has been especially effective, leading the team in hits (50), homers (12), and RBIs (39). He enters the series on a tear, hitting .421 over his last five games.

Alabama (#13, 28-14, 9-9 SEC) also enters with a 2-3 record over its last five games, most recently suffering an 11-2 loss to UAB after dropping a road series to Texas. Before these setbacks, the Crimson Tide had been on a roll, including a sweep of Auburn and a road series win against Oklahoma.

This series holds significant postseason implications as both programs look to improve their positioning ahead of the SEC Tournament. Both teams enter this weekend hovering around the .500 mark in league play.

Previously on Vols vs. Tide

Historically, Alabama leads the overall series 81-48, including a 26-24 advantage in games played in Knoxville. However, Tennessee has dominated recent meetings, winning 6 of the last 10 matchups. The rivals have not met in Knoxville since 2022, having played the last two regular-season series in Tuscaloosa. Most recently, Tennessee defeated Alabama 15-10 in the opening round of the 2025 SEC Tournament.

Key Matchups

• Alabama’s Contact Hitters vs. Tennessee’s Starting Pitching: Alabama relies on a disciplined approach, led by Bryce Fowler, who is hitting an exceptional .429 in conference play, and Brady Neal, who boasts a .345 SEC average. Tennessee’s projected starters, including Evan Blanco (3.76 ERA) and Landon Mack (4.39 ERA), will need to limit Bama to keep the Vols out of an early hole.

• Tennessee’s Power vs. Alabama’s Bullpen: The Vols rank fourth in the SEC with 70 home runs this season. Blake Grimmer is currently the team’s most dangerous hitter, having tied a program record with three home runs in a single game last Sunday against Ole Miss. Alabama’s relievers will have the task of preventing the multi-run home run innings in high-leverage moments.

• The Weekend Rotation:

  • Game 1 (7 p.m. Thursday, ESPN2): Tennessee’s Landon Mack (3-3, 4.39 ERA) vs. Alabama’s Tyler Fay (6-3, 4.50 ERA).

  • Game 2 (6:30 p.m. Friday, SECN+: Tennessee’s Tegan Kuhns (2-3, 3.35 ERA), who is coming off a career-high 10-strikeout performance, meets Alabama’s Zane Adams (4-2, 3.67 ERA).

  • Game 3 (1 p.m. Saturday, SECN+): UT SR left-hander Evan Blanco (4-2, 3.76 ERA) duals Alabama FR Myles Upchurch (5-2, 3.05 ERA).

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After a slow start to conference play, Tennessee (25-12, 7-8 SEC) enters the weekend on a five-game winning streak, punctuated by a historic road sweep of No. 8/9 Mississippi State last weekend. It was the first SEC sweep of the Josh Elander era, and the Vols kept the bats hot during the midweek with an 11-1 thumping of UNC Asheville.

The Rebels (#25, 27-11, 8-7 SEC) are equally dangerous right now, having won six straight games, including a home sweep of LSU. While Ole Miss has been nearly unbeatable in Oxford (22-4), they have struggled away from home with a 3-5 road record.

This series should be a spectacle, as Saturday night will also be the second-ever Checker Lindsey Nelson Stadium game. The first time the Vols checkered the park in 2021, they won on a walk-off homer against No. 1 Arkansas.

But this weekend is also about the postseason. Ole Miss is fighting to stay on the regional hosting line, while Tennessee is looking to climb back above .500 in league play and firmly remove themselves from the bubble.

Previously on Vols vs. Rebels

While Ole Miss leads the all-time series 52-47-1, the Vols have owned the matchup recently, winning four consecutive series dating back to 2019. Tennessee also holds the edge in the last 10 meetings, going 7-3.

Key Matchups

This series features two of the most efficient pitching staffs in the league, with the Rebels ranking fourth in team ERA (3.70) and the Vols sitting sixth (3.93).

• Friday (6:30 p.m. ET, SECN+): RHP Landon Mack (3-2, 3.75 ERA) takes the ball for the Vols after an impressive outing against LSU where he racked up 10 strikeouts. He faces LHP Hunter Elliott (3-1, 3.69 ERA), who is currently fifth in the SEC with 68 strikeouts.

• Saturday (6:00 p.m. ET, SECN+): In what should be a raucous atmosphere, RHP Tegan Kuhns (2-3, 3.77 ERA) looks to follow up a quality start in Starkville. The Rebels counter with their ace, RHP Cade Townsend (3-1, 2.02 ERA), who has issued only one walk over his last three starts.

• Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, SECN+): LHP Evan Blanco (3-2, 3.67 ERA) will look to clinch the series following a career-high 7.2-inning win against Missouri earlier this season. He’ll duel with RHP Taylor Rabe (3-1, 3.16 ERA), who recently carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning against LSU.

The X-factor in the late innings is undoubtedly Cam Appenzeller. The freshman lefty was named SEC Freshman of the Week after pitching five dominant relief innings to beat Mississippi State. His 0.69 WHIP currently leads the conference.

At the plate, Tennessee’s offense has found its identity through balance, with 15 different players launching home runs this year. Garrett Wright has been a revelation since returning from injury, leading the team with a .348 batting average and serving as a spark plug in the leadoff spot. He’s joined by freshman Trent Grindlinger, who is currently on a 15-game on-base streak and hitting .429 in SEC play.

Ole Miss relies on raw power, led by Tristan Bissetta (16 HR) and Judd Utermark (13 HR). Utermark is currently just six home runs shy of the Rebels’ all-time career record. However, the Rebels lead the SEC in strikeouts (374), which plays right into the hands of a Tennessee staff that ranks 11th nationally in strikeouts.

For the third consecutive year, Tennessee (6-seed Midwest, 27-11, 11-7 SEC) is one win away from the promised land: the school’s first-ever Final Four. Riding a massive wave of momentum after dismantling No. 2 seed Iowa State 76-62 on Friday night, a game in which Freshman phenom Nate Ament led the charge with 18 points, while the big man duo of Felix Okpara and Jaylen Carey absolutely dominated the paint, both recording double-doubles in the win.

Waiting for the Vols on Sunday afternoon is a familiar postseason foe: the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines (1-seed Midwest, 34-3, 19-1 Big 10). Michigan set a program record with their 34th win of the season by beating Alabama 90-77 Friday night. After trailing at halftime, the Wolverines leaned on All-American Yaxel Lendeborg, who put up 23 points and 12 rebounds to flip the momentum and secure Michigan’s fifth Elite Eight appearance in the last 15 years.

Previously on Vols vs. Wolverines

History has not been kind to the Vols in this matchup. Michigan leads the all-time series 7-5 and has won the last four meetings. Even more frustrating, the last three encounters have all come in the NCAA Tournament—2011, 2014, and 2022—with Michigan ending UT’s season every single time.

Additionally, Tennessee and Rick Barnes have some familiarity with Michigan head coach Dusty May, who led Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in 2023, beating the Vols in the Sweet 16 along the way. If your glass is half full, Tennessee gets a chance for the getback for some painful March exits against both May and the Wolverines on Sunday.

Key Matchups to Watch

UT’s Rebounding vs. Michigan’s Size

This is likely where the game will be won or lost. Tennessee is the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing a staggering 45% of missed shots (though as Rick Barnes pointed out after the Iowa State game, Tennessee gets a lot of those rebounds because they’re missing shots they shouldn’t miss). Michigan, however, features one of the tallest frontcourts in the nation, anchored by 7’3 Aday Mara, 6’9 Morez Johnson Jr., and the relentless Lendeborg. If Okpara and Carey can continue their beast mode performance from the Sweet 16, it will give UT shooters the second chances they need. Otherwise it could be a tough go for the Big Orange.

Ja’Kobi Gillespie vs. Elliot Cadeau

UT’s floor general Ja’Kobi Gillespie is playing at an All-American level, ranking as the fifth-best player in the country according to EvanMiya. He’ll be matched up against Michigan’s Elliot Cadeau, a dynamic playmaker himself who is averaging 5.7 assists per game. Gillespie’s ability to disrupt Cadeau defensively—he leads the SEC in steals—will be a major factor in slowing down the Wolverines’ high-octane offense.

Expectation vs. Reality

The bottom line is simple. As a 6-seed, Tennessee has been playing with house money since the second round. They weren’t supposed to beat Virginia, they weren’t supposed to beat Iowa State, and the only basketball fans in America who wanted the Vols to beat Miami (OH) are those of us with copious amounts of orange in the closet.

So here UT is again: the only program in the nation to reach the Sweet 16 in each of the last four years and the Elite Eight in each of the past three. Volume matters: if you go knocking on the door often enough, eventually it will open. So why not now?

Rick Barnes has this team playing with a chip on its shoulder as they’ve adopted lets go get ‘em as a mantra. UT isn’t supposed to win Sunday. But. If Tennessee can win the battle on the boards and Gillespie keeps playing like the best guard in the country, if Nate Ament plays like a lottery pick and Felix Okpara keeps being an engine, if the turnovers stay reasonable and Jalen Carey keeps finding ways to score, then the Vols will be booking their tickets to Indianapolis for their first-ever Final Four. Why not now?

Volunteers vs. Wolverines | 2:15 ET Sun. Mar 29 | Chicago, IL | CBS

Tennessee (#20/21, 18-7, 3-3 SEC) enters the weekend on a three-game winning streak following a hard-fought series victory over Missouri and a dramatic midweek walk-off win against USC Upstate. The big news heading into Friday is a shakeup in the starting rotation: head coach Josh Elander is moving redshirt junior left-hander Brandon Arvidson into the Game 1 starter role, replacing sophomore Tegan Kuhns. Arvidson has been a force out of the bullpen this year, posting a 3.52 ERA with 21 strikeouts in just over 15 innings.

Offensively, the Vols are led by Henry Ford, who is pacing the team in hits (33), home runs (8), and RBIs (25). Stone Lawless has also found his groove, leading the team in almost every offensive category during the Missouri series, including a massive 1.250 slugging percentage.

This weekend the Vols travel to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt (14-12, 2-4 SEC). The VandyBoys are desperate to right the ship after a rough start to conference play. The Commodores are coming off a disastrous weekend in Starkville where they were swept by Mississippi State, including a 17-7 run-rule loss in the finale.

Despite their struggles, the Commodores possess elite power, ranking second nationally with 56 home runs. Braden Holcomb leads their attack with 11 long balls. However, Vandy’s pitching staff is reeling. They currently rank dead last in the SEC with a team ERA of 5.58. To make matters worse, they recently lost standout sophomore pitcher Austin Nye for the remainder of the season due to a bicep injury.

Previously on Vols vs. Dores

While the series dates all the way back to 1897, the recent history favors the Big Orange. Tennessee leads the overall series 189-170-2 and has won the past two series played at Hawkins Field, posting a dominant 5-1 record in those games. Vanderbilt has won three in a row overall against the Vols, but those came at the end of last season, including a run-rule win in the 2025 SEC Tournament.

Key Matchups to Watch

The Friday Night Duel

LHP Brandon Arvidson (1-0, 3.52 ERA) vs. RHP Connor Fennell (2-1, 5.74 ERA). Arvidson is making his first career SEC start, and he’ll need to navigate a Vandy lineup that hunts the long ball. Fennell was electric in 2025 but has struggled this season, allowing 20 earned runs in 31.1 innings.

Vol Pitching vs. Vandy Power

The Tennessee pitching staff leads the nation in several strikeout categories and has racked up double-digit strikeouts in 20 of 25 games. They will face a Vanderbilt team that has homered in all but six games this season.

The “New” Hawkins Field Dimensions

If the shadows from Dudley Field seem a little longer this season, it’s because Vanderbilt made significant changes to their ballpark in the offseason, bringing the right field fence in by 15 feet to a distance of just 315 feet. Hawkins is now the second smallest ballpark in the SEC behind just Lindsey Nelson Stadium, showing that once again they tried to be like us and failed at it.

Game Times & Starters

Game 1: Friday, March 27 (8 p.m. ET, ESPNU) Tennessee RS JR LHP Brandon Arvidson (1-0, 3.52 ERA) vs. Vanderbilt JR RHP Connor Fennell (2-1, 5.74 ERA)

• This marks Arvidson’s first career SEC start, as he replaces sophomore Tegan Kuhns in the series-opening role. Fennell was a preseason All-American but has struggled this season, allowing 20 earned runs in 31.1 innings

Game 2: Saturday, March 28 (2 p.m. ET, SEC Network) Tennessee SO RHP Landon Mack (3-2, 3.38 ERA) vs. Vanderbilt FR RHP Wyatt Nadeau (1-1, 3.27 ERA)

• Mack has recorded 39 strikeouts over 32 innings this season. Nadeau was recently named SEC Freshman of the Week after recording 10 strikeouts in a win against LSU.

Game 3: Sunday, March 29 (12 p.m. ET, ESPN2) Tennessee SR LHP Evan Blanco (2-2, 2.73 ERA) vs. Vanderbilt TBA

• Blanco leads the Vols’ rotation in nearly every major category, including strikeouts (44) and ERA. Vanderbilt’s Sunday starter remains a big question mark following a season-ending bicep injury to sophomore Austin Nye. Freshman Tyler Baird started for the Commodores in the previous Sunday finale against Mississippi State

Tennessee (6-seed Midwest, 24-11, 11-7 SEC) secured its spot in Chicago by dispatching two 30-win opponents in the opening weekend—a historical first in the tournament’s 64-team era. The Vols first smashed Miami (OH)’s glass slipper in a 78-56 rout, led by Ja’Kobi Gillespie’s 29 points. They then outlasted a physical Virginia team 79-72, relying on Bishop Boswell’s career-high nine assists and a gutsy second-half performance from freshman star Nate Ament.

Meanwhile Iowa State (2-seed Midwest, 29-7, 12-6 Big 12) arrives after dominating its first two matchups. The Cyclones opened with a 108-74 victory over Tennessee State and followed it by dismantling Kentucky 82-63. Significantly, they crushed the Wildcats without consensus All-American forward Joshua Jefferson, who is currently day-to-day with an ankle injury.

Previously on Vols vs. Cyclones

Tennessee holds a 2-1 all-time lead in the series, with the most recent meeting being a dominant 68-45 Vols road win in Ames during the 2018 Big 12/SEC Challenge. The programs first met in 1968, a 72-66 Iowa State win in Knoxville, followed by an 81-76 Tennessee victory in Tempe, Arizona, in 1977.

Rick Barnes is intimately familiar with the Cyclones, holding a 16-9 career record against them, primarily from his 17 seasons leading Texas. On the other side, Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger has never faced Tennessee.

One other historical note: Tennessee is 1-9 all-time against 2-seeds in the NCAA tourney, while Iowa State is 1-6 all-time in the Sweet 16. Something’s gotta give in Chicago Friday night.

Key Matchups

Gillespie vs. Lipsey

This game features a heavyweight point guard clash between Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Tamin Lipsey. Gillespie is averaging 18.4 points and was the engine of UT’s opening weekend. Lipsey is the veteran heartbeat for the Cyclones, coming off a career-high 26-point, 10-assist double-double against Kentucky.

The Turnover War

Iowa State runs a suffocating defensive system that ranks No. 4 in the nation in forced turnover percentage (22.5%). This is a massive area of concern for Tennessee, which has struggled with ball security and ranks 219th in the country in turnovers per possession. Tennessee was outstanding in the first half against UVA on Sunday, with just one turnover in the game’s first 20 minutes. But the Vols ended up turning the ball over more in the second half (9) than Virginia did all game (7). Gillespie and Boswell straight up cannot be loose with the ball against Iowa State, where every possession will matter.

The Health Factor

Both teams are monitoring star injuries. Nate Ament is battling a high-ankle sprain that limited him against Miami (OH), though he “gutted through” to score 16 against Virginia. Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson remains the Cyclones’ biggest question mark; his 16.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game are vital, but ISU proved they could pick their poison offensively even in his absence.

The Glass vs. Rim Protection

Tennessee leads the nation in offensive rebounding rate, using their size to create high-leverage second-chance points. They will be challenged by Iowa State’s elite rim protection and defensive rotations. Felix Okpara, who has four blocks in each of his first two tournament games, will be the anchor for the Vols’ interior defense.

Volunteers vs Cyclones | 10:10 ET Fri. Mar. 27 | Chicago, IL | TBS/truTV

After a first-round 78-56 rout of Miami (OH), Tennessee (Midwest 6-seed, 23-11, 11-7 SEC) is back in a familiar spot, looking to clinch their fourth consecutive Sweet 16 berth this Sunday in Philadelphia. They’ll face Virginia (Midwest 3-seed, 30-5, 15-5 ACC), who comes in off a tougher-than-expected 82-73 win over 14-seed Wright State in round one.

Despite being an underdog by seed, this is a very winnable game for Tennessee. If you believe in Kenpom, the Vols are rated higher than UVA—in fact the Cavs are the lowest rated of the 3-seeds and Tennessee is the highest rated 6-seed (rated above several 4-and-5 seeds as well).

Previously on Vols vs. Cavs

While Virginia holds a slight 8-6 lead in the all-time series dating back to 1917, the series momentum is currently in Tennessee’s favor. The Volunteers have won the last two meetings, including a dominant 64-42 victory in 2024. In the NCAA Tournament, this is the fourth time these programs have crossed paths. UVA took the first two back in 1981 and 1982, but the Vols got their revenge in 2007.

Key Matchups to Watch

Nate Ament vs. Nate Ament’s Ankle: The biggest question mark for the Vols remains the health of star freshman Nate Ament. The 6’10 projected lottery pick was limited to 0/3 shooting in the Round of 64 and did not play in the second half due to an existing injury. Tennessee is a different beast with Ament on the floor: they are 9-2 when he scores 20+ points, for example. If he can move effectively and approach his season average of 17 points, the Vols’ ceiling rises significantly. If he’s limited, expect even more weight to fall on the shoulders of Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who just became the first SEC player in 30 years to post 29 points, nine assists, and three steals in an NCAA Tournament game.

Ja’Kobi Gillespie vs. Dallin Hall: Gillespie is the catalyst for this Vols team, fresh off a 29-point masterpiece where he shot 6/11 from deep. He will likely be shadowed by UVA’s Dallin Hall, a veteran who leads the Cavaliers with 4.3 assists per game. Gillespie’s ability to get into the paint and either finish or kick to shooters will be the engine of the UT offense.

The “Beasts on the Boards” vs. Elite Rim Protection: This is where the game will be won or lost. Tennessee leads the nation with a 45.0% offensive rebounding percentage—on pace for the third-best mark this century. However, Virginia under Ryan Odom has become the national leader in blocks (6.4 blocks/game). Felix Okpara and J.P. Estrella (who had a 14-point, 10-rebound double-double against Miami) must find ways to score over UVA’s twin towers, Ugonna Onyenso (2.9 bpg) and Johann Grünloh (2.2 bpg). If the Vols can’t turn those second-chance opportunities into points, UVA’s defense could suffocate them.

Perimeter Defense vs. the New-Look Cavs: Forget the slow, methodical Tony Bennett era. Under Ryan Odom, nearly half of Virginia’s shots are 3-pointers. They average over 10 triples per game, which is significantly higher than the 7.8 Tennessee usually allows. The good news for Vol fans is that UT typically does well against teams that rely on 3s—think about Rick Barnes’ success against Nate Odom’s Alabama teams and what Tennessee just did against Miami on Friday.

Volunteers vs. Cavaliers | 6:10 ET Sun. Mar. 22 | Philadelphia, PA | TNT

Tennessee (#6 Midwest, 22-11, 11-7 SEC) is appearing in its eighth straight NCAA Tournament, extending a program record and currently the fourth-longest active streak in the nation. The Vols are 31-28 all-time in the tournament and have found massive success recently under Rick Barnes, reaching the Elite Eight in back-to-back seasons (2024, 2025). UT has reached the Sweet 16 in eight of the past 18 tournaments, but they are still hunting for that elusive first Final Four berth. As the 6 seed, that first trip to the final weekend seems unlikely, but there’s a reason they don’t call it March Regularness.

Meanwhile the RedHawks (#11 Midwest, 32-1, 18-0 MAC) are making their first appearance in the Big Dance since 2007. They are fresh off an 89-79 win over SMU on Wednesday, which marked the program’s first tournament victory since the legendary Wally Szczerbiak led them to the Sweet 16 in 1999. This year’s squad is historic, becoming just the fifth D-I team this century to go undefeated in the regular season.

However there have been questions about the rigor of Miami’s schedule. The RedHawks played just a handful of top-150 Kenpom rated teams this year, and only one rated in the top 100 (Akron, who Miami beat by three points on January 3). Miami also played schools like Mercyhurst, Illinois East, and Milligan (the Skipper too?) on the way to 31-0. The games were increasingly close as well, with the last three regular season games decided by just two points apiece before dropping their first MAC tournament game to a tissue-thin UMass squad.

But that win against SMU Wednesday night was dang impressive. Powered by runs of 11-0 in the first half and 15-1 in the second half, as well as an incredible 39% on 41 three-point shots, it was easily the most impressive win Miami has played to date, over the highest-rated team the RedHawks have faced. Is Miami really good? A team of destiny? Or do they remain simply untested?

Previously on Vols vs. RedHawks

This will be the seventh all-time meeting between the two programs, with Tennessee holding a 4-2 lead in the series. However, you’d have to go back to the previous millennium to find the last time they shared the court, 78-59 UT victory in Knoxville on December 1, 1999, led by 19 points from Vincent Yarbrough. Interestingly, the programs met three times in 25 month during the late 90s, including a RedHawk win over the Vols in 1998. While Tennessee is a perfect 4-0 at home against Miami, they are 0-1 on neutral floors, but you have to go back to 1947 for that one, a 51-54 loss for the Vols in Cincinnati.

Key Matchups

UT Frontcourt vs. Miami’s “Small” Ball

Tennessee’s greatest strength is its offensive rebounding, ranking first in the nation with a 45.1% offensive rebounding rate. The Vols are led by physical forces like Felix Okpara, J.P. Estrella, and the versatile Nate Ament. Conversely, Miami is not a big team; their tallest rotation player is 6-foot-9 Antwone Woolfolk, and they ranked near the bottom of the country (330th) in offensive rebounding percentage during the season. If the Vols can turn missed shots into second-chance points, they can bully the RedHawks into submission.

Miami’s Shooters vs. Vols’ Defense

Miami lives and dies by the three, as evidenced by their First-Four record 16 three-pointers against SMU. They feature four players—Eian Elmer, Justin Kirby, Peter Suder, and Brant Byers—shooting better than 40% from deep. Tennessee’s defense is its trademark, ranking 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Vols need guards Bishop Boswell and Ja’Kobi Gillespie to force Miami’s shooters off their spots and prevent another 16-triple explosion.

(Tennessee is the nation’s 22nd-best team at limiting opponent 3s, if that make you feel better Vol fan.)

Ja’Kobi Gillespie vs. Peter Suder

This game features two of the best guards in the country. Tennessee’s All-SEC PG Ja’Kobi Gillespie (18.0 ppg, 5.5 apg) is the engine of the Vols’ offense and a defensive menace, recently setting a UT record with 8 steals in a single game. He will likely be matched up against MAC Player of the Year Peter Suder (14.4 ppg), a senior who co-leads Miami in scoring and assists. Whichever star guard can control the tempo of the game will likely lead their team to Sunday’s Round of 32.

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Volunteers vs. RedHawks | 4:25 ET Fri., Mar. 20 | Philadelphia, PA | TBS

It’s SEC opening weekend, and Tennessee (#19, 13-4, 0-0 SEC) is beginning a grueling 10-week league grind by heading to Athens to face Georgia (#6, 15-3, 0-0 SEC). The Vols hit Foley Field with momentum, having won seven of their last eight games and fresh off a dominant 20-2 midweek victory over Tennessee Tech.

Previously on Vols vs. Dawgs

The Vols hold a narrow 128-123 all-time lead in the series, which dates back to 1909. However, UGA has 72-53 record against Tennessee in Athens, and the home team has won the last three series between these programs. Tennessee’s last series win in Athens was in 2021.

Schedule & Starters

Game 1: Friday, March 13; 6:00 p.m. ET (SECN+)

• RHP Tegan Kuhns (1-1, 3.09 ERA) vs. UGA RHP Joey Volchko (4-0, 3.00 ERA)

Game 2: Saturday, March 14; 5:00 p.m. ET (SEC Network)

• RHP Landon Mack (3-1, 2.38 ERA) vs. UGA RHP Dylan Vigue (3-1, 1.93 ERA)

Game 3: Sunday, March 15; 1:00 p.m. ET (SECN+)

• LHP Evan Blanco (1-2, 2.75 ERA) vs. UGA LHP Kenny Ishikawa (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Preview

It’s been an inconsistent start of the season at the plate for Tennessee’s offense. They seem to have found their stride in the midweek against Tennessee Tech, blasting five home runs—including two grand slams—on a season-high 17 hits. Junior third baseman Henry Ford leads the charge, entering the weekend with a nine-game hitting streak and team-high marks in batting average (.380), home runs (6), and RBIs (20). It will be a much tougher challenge this weekend as SEC play begins.

The weekend will feature a clash of high-caliber arms, with Tennessee’s staff looking to contain a potent Georgia offense. Tennessee’s pitching staff has been a strength this season, ranking 16th nationally in ERA (3.10) and eighth in WHIP (1.05). The bullpen, in particular, has been brilliant, posting an 8-0 record and a 3.51 ERA with 89 strikeouts in 74.1 innings.

The Vols will need every bit of that production to keep pace with a Georgia squad that leads the nation with 61 home runs and averages 11.4 runs per game. Georgia’s Daniel Jackson leads the country in home runs (14) and total bases (75), while Brennan Hudson boasts an NCAA-leading 1.162 slugging percentage.

You can see that as an obstacle or an opportunity. Tennessee was projected to finish sixth in the SEC preseason poll, while Georgia was projected ninth. This opening weekend provides a massive opportunity for the Vols to prove those projections wrong and set the tone for the conference season. It really wouldn’t even take winning the series to do that. If the Vols could steal a game Friday or Saturday to make Sunday’s contest a rubber match, it could get the SEC season started in the right direction.

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Extraneous

I played around with writing a preview of Friday’s basketball game against Vandy, but it was hard to come up with something different than what was in last week’s season finale preview (other than Nate Ament will be playing).

But in the course of paying around with a SECT preview, I asked for an AI preview graphic, and for giggles instructed Notebook LM to make the graphic in an “anime” style:

There’s a lot going on there. From Wolftrooper Smokey to Super Saiyan Ja’Kobi. But it’s anime Rick Barnes for me.

Volunteers vs. Commodores | Knoxville | Sat. March 7 | 2:00 EST | ESPN

It is officially Senior Day on Rocky Top, and the stakes are high as Tennessee (#23, 21-9, 11-6 SEC) hosts Vanderbilt (#24, 23-7, 10-7 SEC) to close out the regular season. This will be the first AP Top-25 clash in the series since 2010, and the winner likely secures an all-important double-bye in the SEC Tournament.

Nate Ament Injury Watch

The most pressing question for Vol fans is the status of star freshman Nate Ament, who missed the South Carolina game with a right leg injury/high ankle sprain. Ament, who leads the team in rebounding and ranks second in scoring at 17.4 points per game, was sidelined after a scary fall against Alabama. While Coach Rick Barnes has been optimistic, stating that Ament “absolutely” will play again this season, his availability for Saturday remains a question mark. Barnes even suggested the rest could be a “blessing in disguise” for a freshman who has taken a physical beating all season

Frontcourt Dominance

If Ament can’t go, the Vols have proved they’ve got plenty of firepower in the paint. In Tuesday’s blowout win over South Carolina, Felix Okpara and J.P. Estrella combined for 42 points and a flurry of rim-rattling dunks. Okpara tied his career high with 20 points, while Estrella was nearly perfect from the floor, adding 22 points in arguably his best performance of the year.

Tennessee currently leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. If the “Big Four” of Okpara, Estrella, Jaylen Carey, and DeWayne Brown can dominate the glass like they did against the Gamecocks, Vanderbilt will have a long afternoon in the post.

Matchups to Watch

Ja’Kobi Gillespie vs. Tyler Tanner: With Vanderbilt’s Frankie Collins out for the season, the pressure falls on sophomore guard Tyler Tanner (19 ppg). He faces a red-hot Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who is coming off a career-high 12 assists. Gillespie is currently ranked as the fifth-best player in the country according to EvanMiya and has been the undisputed engine of UT’s offense. For his part, Tanner leads the SEC in steals, and could have a field day against what has been a turnover-prone Vols offense this season.

Jaylen Carey’s “Bad Blood” Return: Junior forward Jaylen Carey transferred to Knoxville from Vanderbilt this offseason, and there is reportedly some “bad blood” between him and his former team. Carey was a beast for Vandy against UT last year, but now he has the chance to seal a season sweep of the ‘Dores.

Amari Evans vs. The Moment: If Ament is out, freshman Amari Evans will likely get his second career start. Evans played a career-high 32 minutes at South Carolina, proving he isn’t afraid to compete and providing the defensive intensity Rick Barnes demands.

What is at Stake?

The math is simple: Win and UT seals the double-bye. A victory secures a top-four finish in the SEC for the eighth time in the last nine years. However, a loss would mean Vanderbilt wins the tiebreaker over Tennessee, potentially forcing the Vols to play an extra game in Nashville next week.

And I know there are Vol fans for whom the SEC tourney seed is inconsequential, and who’d rather just go one-and-done in the SECT anyway, since the Vols’ NCAA seed won’t likely change regardless of what happens next week in Nashville. I personally feel like that is loser talk, and any time there is hardware on the line, you should work like heck to bring it home.

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#22 Volunteers vs. #17 Crimson Tide | Sat. February 28 | Knoxville, TN | 6:00 EST (ESPN)

Rick Barnes and the Vols welcome Alabama to Thompson-Boling Arena Saturday for a game that will be critical for postseason positioning. The Tide enters at 21-7 (11-4 SEC), currently holding a one-game lead over the Vols, who sit at 20-8 (10-5 SEC). A Tennessee victory would bolster the Vols’ chances of securing a double-bye in the SEC Tournament.

The rankings and rating between these teams couldn’t be closer. The Vols/Tide are respectively ranked #22/#17 by the AP, #20/#19 by Kenpom, and #20/#19 in the NET rankings. Tennessee is currently projected as No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, while Alabama is tracking as a No. 4 seed.

Recently, Tennessee has owned the series, winning five straight games against Alabama. Under Rick Barnes, the Vols are 8-5 against the Tide, including a hard-fought rally down 10 leading to a 79-73 victory in Tuscaloosa back on January 24. Tennessee has a knack for slowing down Nate Oats’ high-powered offense: in nine meetings during the Oats era, the Vols have held Alabama to just 70.9 points per game, nearly 15 points below their non-UT average.

What to Watch For

• Once Nate Ament turned the corner this season, he’s been playing at an elite level, averaging 21.6 PPG over his last 13 contests. The six-time SEC Freshman of the Week scorched the Tide for 29 points and seven rebounds in the first meeting this year.

• Ja’Kobi Gillespie has been the most consistent offensive force for the Vols, scoring in double figures in 27 consecutive games. He leads UT in scoring (18.1 PPG) and assists (5.4 APG).

• Tennessee leads the nation with a 45.0% offensive rebounding percentage. Felix Okpara and Jaylen Carey lead that charge, but it’s also been noted lately that Tennessee’s shooting at the rim, Carey especially, has been terrible (Carey is 79-147 on “close 2s” this season, just 54%. Okpara shoots 70% on those shots for comparison).

• Alabama ranks 16th in the SEC in scoring defense.

• Alabama’s Labaron Philon Jr. is a lethal sophomore guard averaging 21.3 PPG, including a massive 35-point performance against Arkansas earlier this month.

• Alabama leads the country in three-point attempts and makes per game. However, the Vols boast the top three-point defense in the SEC, holding opponents to just 30.2% from deep.

• In the first meeting, Tennessee rallied from a 10-point deficit to win. With Alabama currently on a seven-game winning streak and scoring 100+ points in their last outing, the Vols cannot afford a slow start.

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Recently

In general, baseball offseason news is hard to come by. Teams typically have way more dudes on the team that what ends up on the Spring roster, and if coaches weren’t required to publish those rosters, we might not ever know who exactly is with the club. But one bit of offseason news that couldn’t be ignored is Tony Vitello’s unprecedented move to become the manager of the San Francisco Giants, making Vitello the first-ever college coach to jump straight into managing a MLB team without any prior major league experience.

So now the Josh Elander era begins. Elander was instrumental in the program Vitello built in Knoxville over the last eight seasons, holding the title of Associate Head Coach under Vitello the last three years. Elander’s reputation is built on developing hitters, having 27 UT position players/hitters drafted in the last eight years, with 17 of those taken in the first five rounds of the draft.

The question for Elander becomes not can he coach? but can he run a program? Unlike his predecessor, he will not have the expertise of long-time pitching coach Frank Anderson, who followed Vitello to the west coast. Josh Reynolds will have the title of pitching coach—but will Elander hand the whole pitching operation over to the rookie coach Reynolds the way Vitello did to the veteran Anderson? Will Tennessee allow pitchers to throw a ball on an 0-2 count? (Anderson was famously a “strikes-only” guy.) Elander has already said the pitchers will focus more on holding runners on base, a departure from Anderson’s mentality that the only battle on the field that mattered was between the pitcher and the hitter.

Will Elander get thrown out of a game? Vitello’s fiery personality was good for firing up the team and the home crowd—but that personality got Vitello and his players in trouble almost as much. Elander seems to be much more stoic. Does he have another gear to kick in when the ump makes one too many bad calls?

Personnel

As previously stated, offseason baseball news is hard to come by. There’s probably a little more known about the Vols’ pitching staff than the defense or batting order heading into the season though. We do know the pitching rotation for opening weekend at least: Tegan Kuhns, who dominated the Cape Cod League this summer and enters the season as a Baseball America Preseason Second Team All-American, takes the mound Friday, followed by Rutgers transfer Landon Mack on Saturday, and Virginia transfer Evan Blanco on Sunday

The pitching depth behind them is equally formidable. Tennessee leads the SEC with three players on the NCBWA Stopper of the Year Preseason Watch List: Brandon Arvidson, Brady Frederick, and Bo Rhudy. Arvidson is a major weapon returning to the bullpen, having averaged 16.3 strikeouts per nine innings last season. Meanwhile, Frederick, a transfer from ETSU, brings a unique “fingers scraping the ground” delivery that Elander believes will provide a tough look for opponents. There’s also the story of Cameron Appenzeller: will the highly-touted 6’5 freshman gain enough of the staff’s trust to make weekend appearances?

I’m not going to try to guess the batting order, but out in the field you might see:

• C: Stone Lawless, a name you’ve heard around the program for a while now; it’s probably finally his turn (although the Vols do have options here and could do some catching-by-committee).

• 1B: Levi Clark, who is a legit home run threat and could also see action behind the plate.

• 2B: Manny Marin, although the middle infield is probably UT’s deepest and most contested spot. IF Ariel Antigua wins the spot at SS, the Marin is likely 2B. Otherwise Marin might be SS and Chris Newstrom would land at 2B. There’s also San Diego State transfer Finley Bates, top-100 prospect freshman Ethan Moore, and JUCO transfer Tyler Myatt competing for time here

• 3B: Henry Ford, UVA transfer who shows up on multiple preseason All-SEC and All-American lists, as well as the Golden Spikes Award preseason watch list. Ford batted .362 with 46 RBIs and 11 HR for the Cavs last year, and could play in the outfield or at 1B if needed as well.

• SS: Ariel Antigua, who we all know has the glove, but will his bat keep him out of the lineup? See also the discussion about 2B.

• LF: Blaine Brown, transfer from Rice with a big bat and can also pitch (listed as a two-way player: OF/LHP). The bat is good enough that if he is pitching, he’ll likely be his own DH. Brown is also on some preseason All-American teams.

• CF: Jay Abernathy, sophomore speedster with some pop in his bat that could also play in the middle infield (as if there’s not already a log jam there).

• RF: Reese Chapman, unless I’m missing something, this would be the only same-position returning starter for UT this season. Chapman had 13 HR and 53 RBIs along with a perfect fielding percentage in right for the Vols last year.

Outlook

Tennessee starts the season in a new-look Lindsey Nelson Stadium with weekend series against Nichols State and Kent State, with a couple of midweek games against UNC Ashville and Bellarmine sprinkled in. Then things get real. The Vols head to Texas at the end of February for the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series at Globe Life Field to face UCLA, Arizona State, and Virginia Tech. The Bruins especially are a marquee matchup, as UCLA is ranked 1 or 2 in most preseason polls (UT is in the 10-15 range is most polls, although Perfect Game has them at #3).

Then comes an expectedly brutal SEC schedule. By mid-April Tennessee will have had series at UGA, at Vandy, vs. LSU, and at Mississippi State, all of which are preseason top-15 teams. On the bright side, there are a ton of questions heading into this baseball season, the schedule is going to give the opportunity to come up with some answers.

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Volunteers at Wildcats | Lexington, KY | Sat., Feb. 7, 8:30 pm EST | ESPN

• Tennessee enters the game having won six in a row is a statement I could make if the Vols had not blown an 17-point lead against the Cats when these teams played in Knoxville a few weeks ago.

• Since Jan. 10, these two teams are a combined 12-3, with UK going 7-1 and UT posting a 5-2 record over the last four weeks.

• Kentucky’s SEC Preseason Player of the Year Otega Oweh has scored in double figures in each of UK’s 23 games this season, tying him with Kansas State’s PJ Haggerty for the most double-digit games in college basketball over the past two seasons.

• Oweh’s eight 20-point games in SEC play this season is the most of any player in the conference, and he’s 26 points away from 1000 career points at Kentucky.

• Rick Barnes is 4-4 against UK over the last eight years in Lexington. UT was 2-36 in Lexington the previous 38 years.

• Tennessee’s Nate Ament has scored 17+ in each of UT’s last seven games, and 22+ in four of them.

• Ament is averaging 22.1 points/game over the last seven, shooting 39.3% from three and 80% at the line, with an average of 9.3 made FT in those games.

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Volunteers vs. Tigers | Knoxville, TN | Sat. Jan. 31, 8:30 pm EST | ESPN

• Arguably the two hottest teams in the SEC square off on a Saturday night in Knoxville.

• After starting off with two SEC losses, Auburn has won four in a row, including a win at Florida last Saturday night.

• Tennessee has won two in a row and three of their last four with consecutive road wins over Alabama and Georgia. Only an epic collapse against Kentucky in the Vols’ last home game keeps them from matching Auburn’s win streak.

• Nate Ament and Auburn's Keyshawn Hall are the reigning co-SEC Players of the Week. Hall dropped 31 points against Texas Wednesday, with 25 of those coming in the second half.

• Auburn’s Kevin Overton also scored 25 against Texas (5-7 from three point range). Overton has scored 20+four times this year.

• Auburn leads the nation in free throws attempted (28.8) and free throws made (21.3) per game. So go ahead and prepare to be frustrated about that.

• Tennessee remains the top offensive rebounding team in America, but also is still among the worst when it comes to turning the ball over. The Vols did have just 12 turnovers against UGA Wednesday, which isn’t good in general but is pretty dang good for them.

• Ja’Kobie Gillespie has scored 20+ in three straight games, joining Chaz Lanier and Dalton Knecht as Vols who have pulled that feat in the last few years.

• Bishop Boswell has recorded a double-double in two of the last four games. He had never recorded a double-double before that.

• VFLs Chris Lofton (Vol Network) and Dane Bradshaw (ESPN) will be calling the game for their networks. Both played alongside Auburn head Coach Seven Pearl in the late 00’s. Pearl is 14-7 in his first year as a head coach.

• Wednesday’s win against Georgia was Rick Barnes’ 850th career win. In his time at UT, Barnes has more SEC wins (116) than he has total losses among all games (115).

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Alabama AD Greg Byrne tweeted that there are plenty of other teams “with former G League and EuroLeague players on their rosters who have been deemed eligible… The distinctions between those cases and Charles’ situation are without real differences.”

However, to my knowledge, none of those other cases involve payers who started playing college ball, made the conscious decision to forfeit their remaining eligibility by signing a contract with an American professional basketball franchise, then years later returned to the college ranks.

There’s a pretty good history of athletes that played professionally in one sport, then played college ball in another. Kelley Washington was a Florida Marlin before playing football for the Vols. Chris Weinke played in the Blue Jays’ system, then won a Heisman Trophy. And those were 20+ years ago.

However, that was crossing over from one sport to another. This is a whole other beast. Byrne is right in that there are former pros on college rosters. Heck, Tennessee has Ethan Burg, who played pro ball in Isreal. But there is a “real difference” in Burg’s situation and Bediako’s. Burg did not begin his career as a Vol, try out the pro league, and then call takie-backsies when he failed to succeed. Burg used his play in Isreal as a route into college ball, whereas Bediako is using it as a failsafe.

Honestly, the best thing for the sport would likely be for both of those situations to not exist. But the point that cannot be emphasized enough is this: Bediako signed on the line which is dotted knowing that doing such was forfeiting his remaining eligibility. It was a conscious choice, made with the consequences in mind.

We live in a different world of college athletics. That is clear. On Friday night, Nate Oates told reporters “the system is broken”, which is kinda like your neighbor telling you your house is on fire while pouring gasoline in your kitchen.

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Volunteers vs Wildcats | Saturday Jan. 17, 2026 | Noon EST ESPN

• Rick Barnes has maintained all season that eventually, “it’d all just click” for Nate Ament, and the latter part of Tuesday’s double-overtime win over Texas A&M might have been when the coin dropped.

• Ament scored 19 points in the game’s final 20 minutes, including 10 in the overtimes. The freshman also recorded seven rebounds and two blocks. But the most encouraging part is that Ament looked more aggressive over those last 20 minutes than he has at maybe any other point this season.

• Another welcome development against A&M was the team didn’t fold down the stretch. Tennessee had mid-2nd-half leads against Kansas, Syracuse, Illinois, and Arkansas, but faded late in those games. One Tuesday, the Vols battled the whole way and then some without wilting.

• Tennessee is still the #1 offensive rebounding team in America, which is awesome.

• Unfortunately the Vols need all those second chance shots because they won’t stop turning the ball over at alarming rate. UT is 275th nationally in turnover rate—by far the worst in the SEC (Mizzou is 255, no other SEC team is in the 200s or lower). In SEC play alone, the Vols turn the ball over 21% of the time (the league average is 15%, the best teams are around 11%). I can’t imagine that giving the ball away every 5th possession is sustainable.

• The Vols also need someone to step into a leadership role. Bishop Boswell and Felix Okpara seemed to be more vocal in the A&M game. This team needs more of that.

• As for Kentucky, the Cats were picked 2nd in the conference pre-season polls, but started off 0-2 in SEC play before wins against Mississippi State and LSU.

• UK’s Otega Oweh was preseason SEC Player of the Year and leads Kentucky with 15.8 PPG.

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• idk turnovers probably lol

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• Tennessee leads the series 7-4 all-time, including 6-2 in the last eight and 4-0 over the last three years.

• Both the Vols and Longhorns lost their SEC openers last weekend, with Texas losing to Mississippi State 98-101 in OT, and Tennessee dropping a 75-86 game in Fayetteville.

• Tennessee’s loss was particularly disappointing. Winning on the road in the SEC is tough, but the Vols had a three-point lead with 10 minutes left, like they had a lead with 11 minutes left against Illinois, like they had a lead against Syracuse with 10 minutes left, like they had a lead against Kansas with 10 minutes left. This UT team seems to melt in the last quarter of game time, and they’ve been doing it since November, and it has to stop if they are ever going to reach anything near their potential this season.

• And it’s not just the missed free throws—which is a huge probelm. It’s a general sloppiness with the ball. Tennessee is bottom-third nationally in turnover % at 18.2%. That’s nearly one-in-five possessions where the Vols just give the ball away. Sure, they’re a great offensive rebounding team and give themselves a tone of second chances that way. But you almost have to create second chances if you’re just going to yeet the ball into the void every few trips down the court.

• At what point do you declare the Nate Ament experiment a failure? Ament was easily outplayed at Arkansas by fellow freshman Darius Acuff. In fact, if you look at the top players in the freshman class across the country, a lot of them are playing really well. Ament is top-10 in defensive rebounds, defensive win shares, and defensive rating among SEC players, so I guess there’s that.

• 9:00 tip off? No way in hell I’m staying up for the end of this game (I’ll probably stay up for the end of the game).

Vols at Razorbacks | 3:00 EST Saturday, January 3 | ESPN2

• This will be the first SEC game of the season for both teams.

• Tennessee is 8-2 in the last 10 against the Razorbacks

• UT’s last visit to Fayetteville resulted in the largest margin of victory in series history, a 29-point Vol victory (92-63 on Valentine’s Day in 2024)

• The Vols have won the last three matchups by an average of 23.7 points

• This is the fourth top-25 matchup in the last six meetings between the schools. Before that stretch, UT and Arkansas had never met when both were ranked

• Rick Barnes leads all active coaches with 846 wins (9th all-time) with John Calipari one game behind him at 845 official wins. Calipari has won 887 games “on the court” but 40+ of those are lost to the NCAA COI

• Barnes and Calipari are 13-13 in head-to-head matchups

• UT’s Ja’Kobi Gillespie is four points shy of 1,500 career points

• Arkansas’ Darius Acuff has been named SEC Freshman of the Week each of the last three weeks and is considered the favorite to win SEC Freshman of the Year

Recently

Tennessee (#23, 8-4, 4-4 SEC) finished a strange season on a sour note, falling to Vanderbilt 29-45 on Senior Day in Neyland. I say a strange season for lack of a better description. This is probably best left for a full-season postmortem later on, but on the morning of the Orange & White game last spring, when you woke up to find Tennessee’s five-star, $8-million dollar QB was gone, if I could promise you that eight wins would be the floor for Tennessee in 2025, you’d probably be ok with that. Especially if I told you one of those wins would be in the Swamp. Oh, and they’d be breaking in new personnel all over the offense while the defense would be out one All-American corner and another CB of AA or All-SEC caliber.

At the same time, it felt oddly like UT underachieved this year. A made FG at the end of regulation against the eventual SEC champs would’ve changed the whole tenor of the season. Just don’t give up a strip-sack-TD against Oklahoma and you probably win that game too. This UT squad held together with duct tape and hope was a couple of plays away from being a CFP contender once again. But they didn’t quite ascend to that level, and the whole season felt a little lacking as a result.

Unlike Tennessee, Illinois (RV, 8-4, 5-4 Big 10) finished the 2025 regular season with a win against their in-state rival nerd school, beating Northwestern 20-13. Like Tennessee, Illinois also has some losses against CFP heavyweights; for them it was Ohio State and Indiana. But the Illini have lost some questionable ones too, being routed by Washington 42-25 and dropping a head-scratcher against Wisconsin 27-10.

This is the first time Illinois has posted back-to-back eight win seasons since 1989-90. A win in Nashville would give the Illini the most wins over a two-year span in program history with 19. (By comparison, a win in Nashville would give UT 19 wins over a two-year span for the first time since… last year). Bret Bielema is the first coach in Illinois history to win 8+ games three times, and three 8-win seasons in a span of four years is a first for Illinois since winning 8+ each year from 1901-04.

Previously on Vols vs. Illini

This will be the first meeting between the schools in football.

Tennessee and Illinois have played basketball each of the last three seasons, with Tennessee winning in Knoxville and Champaign over the last two years and the Illini winning in Nashville a few weeks ago.

Tennessee has played Big 10 teams three times in the postseason under Josh Heupel, losing to Purdue in overtime at the 2021 Music City Bowl and at eventual national champion Ohio State in last year’s CFP. UT beat Big 10 Iowa in the 2023 Citrus Bowl. Illinois’ Bret Beilema is 1-1 against SEC teams in bowl games at Illinois, losing to Mississippi State in the 2023 Reliaquest Bowl and beating South Carolina in last year’s Citrus Bowl.

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Five Factor Preview

When I created the JAR rating last offseason, it was not with the goal of coddling my orange-tinted biases. But here we are—with JAR still rating the Vols at #16 nationally. Best 8-4 team in America? Hang the banner.

In reality though, JAR has done a really good job of predicting Tennessee games this season. The worst call it’s made was pinning the Vandy game as a toss-up. For this game, JAR has the same level of confidence in a Vol win that it had in the Syracuse game to kick off the year. I personally have some reservations about that that we’ll get into, but JAR’s opinion is clearly pro-UT.

Matchup & Personnel

• Addition for the last edition of the matchup sheet: I’ve faded players who have opted-out of the bowl game (as of press time).

• For Tennessee’s defense, that’s LB Arion Carter (though EDGE Joshua Josephs and CB Colton Hood have been rumored as potential opt-outs too).

• Unfortunate, as I’d loved to have seen how Carter played in new DC Jim Knowles’ defense next year, but expect to see heavy doses of Edwin Spillman and Jadon Perlotte—which is a good thing too.

• Faded for the Illini is All-Big 10 LT JC Davis, which, if I’m Joshua Josephs and I’m thinking about the draft, I might just play in this game and try to wreak literal havoc on whoever the next man up at OT for Illinois is.

• QB Luke Altmyer does plan to play his final game for the Illini and projects as a mid-round Draft pick. Altmyer draws comparisons to NFL journeyman Gardner Minshew, in that his best qualities as a QB are from the neck up—but he’s smart enough to overcome any physical limitations to beat you. Altmyer is the lone top-200 rated player in Illinois’ two-deep.

Speaking of a talent gap, let’s talk about Illinois HC Bret Bielema’s coach effect. Bielema is a whopping +30 in career coach effect—meaning he’s won a ton of games where he had the less talented roster (as is the case for this game). That’s slightly skewed by the fact that Bielema almost always has the less talented squad—his stint at Arkansas was the only time in his career that he had teams ranked in the top-25 talent-wise, and those just barely.

In fact, the talent level at Illinois has only marginally improved over the course of Bielema’s time in Champaign-Urbana. Five years in and the Illini are still statistically less talented than teams like Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, and Northwestern. But the Illini are regularly beating those teams under Bielema. Ironically, Illinois is more talented than #1 Indiana; which calls into doubt the validity of these recruiting rankings to begin with. But talent level has a very strong correlation to winning—you could hit around 80% for the season picking games straight up using nothing but talent rating. Bielema’s teams buck that trend and have for most of his career.

• Defensively, Illinois S Matthew Bailey and OLB/EDGE Gabe Jacas have declared for the draft and will not play in the bowl game.

• Jacas was All-Big 10 and led the conference in sacks with 11.

• For Tennessee, WR Chris Brazzell has declared for the draft and will sit out. Radarious Jackson saw the most action as UT’s 4th WR so expect to see a good bit of him and/or a good bit of two-TE sets (I think you’ll see both).

• Last game for Joey Aguilar? Probably. Last game for Lance Heard? Possibly. It will be interesting to see what personnel decisions are made in this game, as they could foreshadow next year’s roster too.

Prediction

The roster unknowns make picking a game like this difficult. Not only what players may or may not opt out between now and kickoff, but also where the motivation level is for each player and coach at this point of the year. Who might be checked out mentally? Who might be driven to show out for next year’s NIL deal? What coaches know they’re not being retained and are just going through the motions? Which ones are putting in double time, angling for a promotion? These are all unknowns.

As said earlier, the JAR rating really doesn’t like Illinois here. I feel that the 85% win probability for the Vols is a little high, but there’s reason to follow the formula here. Looking back, JAR did a pretty good job of calling the Illini’s season too. On top of the obvious losses to Indiana and Ohio State, it predicted an Illini loss to Washington and it had the Wisconsin game as a toss-up. The only game JAR got wrong for Illinois was the USC game—a game the system thought was as certain a loss for the Illini as it sees this Music City matchup.

JAR also cannot account for whatever special sauce Bielema has that keeps him winning games against more talented teams. It’s kind of incredible: when Bielema took over at Illinois, they had the 56th-most talented roster in CFB. This year it’s #64. The rating has improved slightly (from 630.2 to 662.1), but the ranking has dropped as other teams became more talented too. By comparison, Tennessee had the 19th-best roster when Josh Heupel took over, and this season the rank is 16. But the talent rating in Knoxville is much higher, rising from 780.8 in 2021 to 866.6 this year. Regardless, Bielema consistently beats more talented teams. It makes me wonder what would happen if you gave Bielema a truly talented squad. Would he look like an all-time great? Or would he regress to the mean? Is Bret Bielema just an 8-4 coach regardless of the roster?

However, notwithstanding any Bielema voodoo or other unknowable variables, the smart pick is Tennessee in this game. While the Vols don’t have any big wins, they also have no truly bad losses. Yes, losing to Vanderbilt is inexcusable, but take the name off the jersey and that team is far better than either the Wisconsin or Washington teams Illinois lost to. On top of that, the Illini’s opt-outs are highly impactful. Arion Carter and Chris Brazzell are certainly two of Tennessee’s best players. But you don’t casually lose an all-conference left tackle and the Big 10’s best pass rusher without feeling it. Tennessee’s roster is built to absorb their opt-outs better than Illinois’ is. I do believe the game will be tougher than how JAR sees it, but UT pulls away in the end. Vols 38, Illini 23.