Earlier in the game, with 6:22 remaining in the 2nd quarter, South Carolina faced a 3rd & 13 at their own 32 yard line. LaNorris Sellers was pressured immediately—by design, as the Gamecocks had dialed up a screen pass, and several SC offensive linemen (i.e., ineligible receivers) were already downfield blocking. Unlike the Tennessee play, ineligibles are allowed downfield on screen plays—even to engage with blocking defenders downfield—given that the ball is caught behind the line of scrimmage. Only it wasn’t. Here’s Carolina’s Maurice Brown catching the pass beyond the line of scrimmage (the black line), with two ineligible linemen blocking downfield in front of him:

This 28-yard explosive pass play should’ve been a 5-yard penalty resulting in a 3rd-and-18 from the Carolina 27. Instead, it was 1st down Cocks in Tennessee territory. SC would go on to kick a field goal on this drive, later winning the game by that three point margin.

Why was this same rule applied unevenly on two plays within the space of less than 15 minutes of in-game time? Did the officials have it out for Tennessee in this game? We’ll never actually know. Hanlon’s Razor says to never assume malice when ignorance will suffice, and there’s a great chance that the lopsided nature of penalties Saturday were the result of ignorance rather than malice. But the optics are undeniably horrible. Start with last Sunday: Tennessee opened as a -2.5 favorite. By the end of the day, though, the line had completely flipped, and the Vols were a +2.5 road dog. Somebody put a massive amount of money on SC at +2.5 for the line to swing that hard that fast.

Then the league office assigns Alabama alum David Smith to referee the game. There’s a long list of bad Tennessee losses, especially on the road, that Smith has officiated. Again, could be coincidence, could be ignorance instead of malice. Regardless, it is borderline reckless for the SEC to assign officials to their rivals’ games, especially just one week following an emotional, high-profile rivalry game. By promoting particular named rivalries with unique logos and fanfare like the home vs. home jersey worn by UT and Bama last week, the SEC itself recognizes that some rivalries “just mean more” than others. Yet the league also allows Smith, who quarterbacked the TSIO for Alabama, to referee Tennessee’s game the week after an emotional Bama loss to the Vols. It’s likely coincidence; it’s likely ignorance instead of malice. Still, it looks horrible.

And if you think it was malicious and would like a little more fuel to your conspiracy-theory fire, below is the official play-by-play transcript of the game. This is the drive where King was flagged for being downfield. The play is not on the transcript. There is no official record of the play ever happening.

Advanced Box Score

A week ago, Tennessee had about four points per scoring opportunity, and it was fine because the defense had Alabama sophomore QB Keelon Russell in a blender. But LaNorris Sellers is a veteran. Some of the same tricks Jim Knowles used against Russell weren’t going to work on Sellers, and Tennessee was going to need explosive plays to keep up. They didn’t find those plays Saturday, or at least they couldn’t keep them on the board.

Everywhere else the Vols were fine. Tennessee had a slightly better success rate, the field position battle was practically a draw, and the havoc rate was once again impressively high. South Carolina’s own havoc rate was an unimpressive sub-15%, but Dylan Stewart’s strip-sack came at just the right time.

Speaking of, back in the offseason I wrote about the unlucky nature of Tennessee’s 2025 season. Luck is measured by both fumbles lost and record in one-score games. UT was 2-3 in one-score games a year ago, they have a similar record so far this season at 1-2. And although the Vols are just on the good side of lucky when it comes to fumbles lost at 43.8% (the national average is 46%—Northwestern is particularly lucky having lost just 2 of 10 fumbles, while Oregon is on the other end with 9 of 10 fumbles lost this year), no turnover has been as costly this season as giving the Gamecocks the ball on the edge of field goal range with just a minute left.

Rushing Report

Power Success is the rate of conversion when needing just a couple of yards on 3rd or 4th down. The Vols power run game had been near flawless out of their jumbo package this season, including 6 for 6 on 4th downs at the time they lined up on 4th and 1 with just 3:37 left in the game. Converting there, as they had every time they tried in October up to that point, would almost certainly ice the game.

They didn’t.

Player Usage & PPA

This game is an interesting study in how PPA tells you how much a player impacted their team’s performance. LaNorris Sellers had a +10.6 PPA rushing and -1.2 PPA passing. In other words, Sellers was a liability when throwing, but won the game with his legs. That’s a bit of a misnomer since many of his biggest plays came on scrambles that started as pass plays. But he was much better off tucking and running than trying to throw.

Conversely, George MacIntyre had a -9.9 rush PPA and a +4.6 pass PPA. Most of that negative came on the failed 4th down and the strip-sack. MacIntyre actually had a couple of nice decisions tucking and running at the right time. I’ve had the feeling the last few weeks that GMac needed to run more, just to legitimize the possibility of a QB run on our read options and RPOs. But after seeing him execute a speed option, we might just need to leave that part of the game on the shelf.

Recently

On a sublime Third Saturday in October, Tennessee (#11 AP/#11 Coaches’, 6-1, 3-1 SEC) defeated Alabama 26-10. It was the most complete, most dominant win the Vols have put together in a while, with all three phases of the game controlling the Tide for the vast majority of the contest. The trick now is to avoid the post-big-game hangover that many SEC teams fell victim to last week.

That test will come on the road against a South Carolina (NR, 3-3, 1-3 SEC) team fresh off an open week. Before the bye the Gamecocks went into the Swamp as two-touchdown underdogs and beat then-no. 15 Florida 38-19. It was a Jekyll-and-Hyde moment for SC, as they had lost to Mississippi State, Alabama, and Kentucky in consecutive weeks prior.

Previously on Vols vs Cocks

Tennessee rushed for 238, passed for 239, and sacked Spencer Rattler six times in a Dark Mode 41-20 rout of the Gamecocks in 2023. Kamal Hadden’s 28-yard pick six just before halftime was one of 2023’s defining moments. It was the end of a series that had been played yearly since 1992, and which the Vols lead 29-11-2.

Of course, that win was payback, if such a thing could be achieved, for the 2022 game in Williams-Bryce Stadium that knocked UT out of playoff contention. Despite the Vols having a commanding series lead, and even a winning record in Columbia (UT is 10-8-2 there), Tennessee is just 2-6 in Columbia since 2008. There’s also an unsettling pattern of significant Tennessee losses there. In 1992, a loss to UofSC capped a three-game losing streak after UT started the season 5-0 and ranked #4. It was the last straw in Johnny Majors’ career as the Vols’ head coach. In 2016 Tennessee controlled its own SEC Championship Game destiny, but lost that spot after falling to Carolina 24-21. And the topper, that 2022 debacle.

There’s been some great wins in Columbia too, though. Tee Martin set the NCAA record for consecutive completions there in 1998. Josh Dobbs flashed on the scene, bringing the Vols back from a 14-point deficit twice in a 45-42 OT win. Heck even the 2020 team got an early-season win there that extended what was at the time the nation’s longest win streak. Even with Halloween around the corner, Williams-Bryce doesn’t have to be a house of horrors.

Five Factor Preview & JAR

A week ago in this space I said the keys to Tennessee beating Alabama were creating havoc plays on defense and not having empty scoring opportunities on offense. The Vols checked both those boxes. So ok, genius, do it again.

One area that stands out is how much Tennessee’s defense has limited explosiveness by opposing offenses. LaNorris Sellers is a talented, veteran QB. Can he solve the puzzles Jim Knowles will throw at him? Or will the Tennessee defense continue to suffocate their opposition?

The other area that grabs my attention is again points per opportunity. Last week I worried that all the early field goals Josh Heupel was opting for wouldn’t be enough to get the job done. It turns out they were, but it still seems like Tennessee is leaving a lot of meat on the bone in that respect. UT’s points per opportunity was up near six early in the season, but has steadily fallen in SEC play. This week presents an chance to reverse trend, as Carolina is bottom-10% in PPO allowed nationally.

Winning last week did a lot of work for the Vols’ projected finish. Suddenly 10-2 is much more likely than 8-4. It’s been a gauntlet to get here, and there’s plenty more ahead, but if Tennessee can get to the open date at 7-1, there’s everything to lay for on the back end of the schedule.

Matchups & Personnel

The Gamecocks offense presents a unique challenge for a Tennessee defense that has played outstanding ball the last few weeks. Jim Knowles’ unit should be able to handle the Carolina front with little problem. But LaNorris Sellers and Matthew Fuller are one of the most explosive rushing duos in the SEC, with a combined six runs of 30+ yards and 4 runs of 50+ yards (Tennessee has one 50+ yard run this year). Sellers also has a plethora of talented receivers to target. Containing Sellers is priority #1 for the Vols Saturday.

The front seven of the Carolina defense is their strength, particularly on the edges. There you will find former Vol Caleb Herring and All-American Dylan Stewart. The good news for UT is that the Gamecock defense is geared more toward stopping the pass with front seven havoc. Whereas most 4-2-5 defenses play with a pass-rushing EDGE to the passing strength and a run-stopping DE to the run strength, SC plays two EDGE rushers and the tackles are a little lighter than what UT saw against Alabama last week. Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy is the only DT in the rotation that weight north of 300 lbs., but the DT rotation is deep and full of talented players. The back end of Carolina’s defense is a weaker point, though how much Tennessee can exploit that weakness with the pass game remains to be seen.

Prediction

Tennessee should win this game because they are the better team. But it’s the road in the SEC. It’s a stadium that has caused problems for this program historically, and it’s game eight in a row against a talented team off a week of rest. There’s a lot going against the Vols here. UT is mentally and physically exhausted. Carolina is fresh. And importantly, Carolina is a better team than they looked though the first third of their SEC schedule. There’s a lot going against the Vols here.

And then there’s Vegas. When the line opened Sunday, Tennessee was a 2.5-point favorite. Hours later, the line had completely flipped and suddenly the Gamecocks were were favored by 2.5. One has to imagine bettors hopping on what looks like a trend in the SEC this year: big, emotional wins followed by enormous let-downs. Ole Miss beats Lane Kiffin and LSU, then gets walloped by Florida. The Gators then go on to be routed by Missouri, who was in turn beat down by Ole Miss. Oklahoma wins the Red River shootout then falls to Kentucky. Georgia beats Alabama, then drops the next week to Auburn.

But that very trend set so far, coupled with the line change, probably works in Tennessee’s favor. Imagine beating Alabama and then being told that you’re an underdog to a 1-3 conference team. There’s few motivators better than “us against the world”, and UT has that in their pocket this weekend. It’s entirely possible that the ravages of eight straight games, with the last 5 being SEC games, takes a toll the Vols can’t overcome. All else being equal, though, Tennessee is the better team and should win this game. JAR says UT 32, SCAR 21. I’m not sure either team can score that many. I’ll say Tennessee 27, South Carolina 17.

Or at least that’s how it felt. In hindsight, the game was clinched way earlier than that. It happened with 5:22 left in the 2nd quarter, when Cooper Ranvier nailed his 4th field goal of the day giving Tennessee a 12-7 lead. Alabama was never going to score more than 12. Heck, they weren’t going to score 10 without a tipped-ball INT at Tennessee’s 14 yard line that set the Tide up for their lone TD of the day. Bama only drove into Tennessee territory three times in the game: one was on a drive that started at their own 45, and one on their last possession when UT was playing prevent defense. Their only other sustained drive resulted in a turnover on downs at the Tennessee 40.

Tennessee has beaten Alabama three of the last five years. The wins aren’t as foreign as they once were. But winning like that is something Vol fans haven’t experienced in a long, long while. Kids in the student section haven’t seen it in their lifetime. Outside of a mind-boggling error in the punt return game, all three phases played a near-perfect game. It was the most complete game I can remember Tennessee playing in a very long time, especially with the stakes being as high as they were here.

Five Factor Box Score

Tennessee’s 3.25 points per scoring opportunity normally wouldn’t get it done. You can get away with it, though, when you hold the other guys to a paltry two points per opportunity. The number that really pops, though, is Tennessee’s near 33% havoc rate. That’s every third play—once every set of downs.

Rushing Report

A stunning 27% of Alabama’s rush attempts were stuffed at or behind the line (havoc rate strikes again), and only 25% of Bama’s power runs succeeded. Two of those power runs were on a fourth downs with one resulting in a Daniel Hill fumble, and the other in Hill getting stuffed at the line.

Player Usage & PPA

Keelon Russell did avoid the curse of the negative PPA quarterback, but just barely, and mostly because of that last drive that allowed Bama to go from their own 12 to the UT 26 before throwing a final INT.

Mike Matthews had what was probably his best game of the season so far. But what will be remembered was the sequence during the Vols 4th quarter death march drive when Matthews earned a personal foul throwing a block that is by the book illegal (but would’ve been a Sportscenter Top 10 play in the not-too-distant past), then gained 19 yards back on a quick screen the play after. I can only imagine that calling Matthews’ number the play after the penalty was a calculated move by Heupel and co.

The feel-good story of the game, though, is the duo of DeSean Bishop and George MacIntyre, both Tennessee kids who no doubt dreamed of this night in their backyards as children, and delivered when given the chance. GMac’s stat line won’t wow anyone, but his decisiveness with the ball and game management are exactly what Tennessee’s offense needs right now. And Bishop’s 150+ yards seems like standard operating procedure at this point, but absolutely should be opening eyes around the country. There’s no reason for Bishop to not be in the Heisman running at this point, as Bishop has performed at a higher level and more consistently than many of the names associated with the award at this point of the season.

Recently

For the first time since a 13-3 Vol win in 2001, Tennessee (#14 AP/#14 Coaches’, 5-1, 2-1 SEC) went to Fayetteville and beat Arkansas, this time 24-17. If your glass is half full, this win showed continued growth for a team that battled through some adversity with its second starting QB of the season. If your glass is half empty, fire everybody.

Meanwhile Alabama (#6 AP/#7 Coaches’, 5-1, 3-1 SEC) hosted Georgia and lost to the Dawgs 20-17. That game was the second of a string of ranked opponents for the Tide, as Alabama beat then-#16 Mississippi State 56-23 before the Georgia game.

Previously on Vols vs. Tide

Tennessee lost in Tuscaloosa 37-20 last October. It was a game closer than the score indicates, as UT’s offense outgained the Tide 410 yards to 373. But a disastrous 2nd quarter saw the Vols give up a safety and a 99-yard interception return for the Tide as time expired in the half, putting Tennessee in a 23-7 hole they never recovered from.

Of course this series hasn’t seen back-to-back wins for either team since Bama won in 2020 and ’21. Tennessee stunned the college football world by breaking Alabama’s 15-game series win streak in 2022, and won a defensive slugfest in 2024 as well, 24-17. Tennessee has scored at least 20 points in each of Josh Heupels’ games against Alabama, which doesn’t sound like much until you find out that the last time UT scored 20 against Bama in five consecutive games was 1995-2001.

And for the first time since 1970 Tennessee will wear their orange jerseys while Alabama wears crimson. The Vols won that 1970 game 24-0 behind a school-record eight interceptions, including three by Tim Priest.

Five Factor Preview & JAR

Let me start with what should be obvious: Tennessee isn’t supposed to win this game. Every ranking/rating system, including this site’s own, has the Tide rated as a top-5 team, and has the Vols rated somewhere outside the top 10, typically in the top 20. There’s also data that shows there’s a significant dropoff after the top 5. So much like we discussed before the Texas game, if Tennessee wins Saturday, it will have been against the odds.

But Tennessee nearly did beat Texas. Tennessee wasn’t supposed to be Alabama in 2024 or 2022 either. So it’s not supposed to happen, but it’s not some impossible feat. It won’t be App State/Michigan if it does happen. According to our JAR model, the Vols have about a 1-in-3 shot, and predicts an Alabama win, 30-20. But also over 1,000 simulations UT covers 2/3 of the time; that means it could easily be at least a one-score game. And in a one-score game, well…

So how does Tennessee make it happen?

Two areas stand out for me when comparing these teams. First, Alabama’s offense has allowed a lot of havoc plays, especially front 7 havoc, which Tennessee has excelled in. Bama has given up 16 sacks this season (115th-worst in the nation), while the Vols lead the country in sacks with 25. Haters will say it’s because UT hasn’t played anyone, but consider that Texas has given up 12 sacks this year, and half of those were courtesy of the Vols. For UT to win this game Saturday, they have to get Alabama QB Keelon Russell on the ground. Russell has been an incredible player through six games this season, and he’s likely to pop a run or two. If Tennessee can’t get home on him, things could get ugly. But if the Vols front plays as it has the first half of the season, they can give Tennessee its best chance of winning the game.

The other area that stands out is that Bama’s defense is giving up 3.77 points per scoring opportunity. While that doesn’t sound like a lot of points, it is bottom-third nationally. Conversely, Tennessee is in the top 20% in finishing drives with 4.48 points per scoring opportunity. The caveat there is that the points per opportunity have fallen off a cliff in SEC play, and Alabama’s defense is better than what Tennessee saw against Auburn or Arkansas. It comes down to the fact that Tennessee can’t come up with empty possessions after making deep into enemy territory like they did a week ago.

Matchups & Personnel

This is the point in the season where I make a slight change to these graphics. Previously, a colored-in circle indicated a returning starter from the previous season. Now, it indicates a player that has started every game so far this season. Also, On Tennessee’s defense I’ve upgraded Xavier Gilliam to a star player because, come on man, have you seen this dude play?

Speaking of Gilliam, he will be one of the Vols chiefly responsible for causing havoc on Saturday, either by by winning one-on-one battles or by drawing double teams and freeing up other rushers (or beating those double teams, as he has several times this season). There could be a potential soft spot on the Bama offensive line too, as center Racin Delgatty is listed as questionable. There’s a good chance his replacement would be Mal Waldrep, who has played some for Bama this season, but at guard, not center.

Also out for the Tide is erstwhile wunderkind Ryan Coleman-Williams. While Bama has plenty of talent at WR, you can’t argue that losing Williams makes no difference to their offense.

Explosive pass defense has been a weakness for Alabama this season, which is wild considering Zabien Brown and Bray Hubbard are serious All-SEC, if not All-American type players. But the Tide have given up 51 pass plays of 10+ yards and 22 plays of 20+ yards, putting them in the bottom 20% of all teams, and 12 plays of 30+ yards—worst in the SEC and in the bottom 6% off all teams nationally.

Unfortunately Tennessee has struggled to create those explosive plays themselves. The Vols are bottom-third nationally in 10+ and 20+ yard plays, although they do place in the middle-third when it comes to 30+ yarders. One way for Tennessee to pump those numbers up is finding more ways to get the ball in Mike Matthews’ hands.

The difficulty in doing that is the time Tennessee’s offensive line has given the QBs to get the ball out to the playmakers. I don’t trust PFF’s grades much, but their statistics are usually pretty solid, and according to those stats Faizon Brandon has had just over 3 seconds, and George MacIntyre just under 3 seconds to throw on the average dropback. LaNorris Sellers and Marcel Reed get over 4 seconds per throw, and Sam Leavitt just under 4 seconds, for some SEC comps. The good news might be that MacIntyre, who will be making his second start this week, has been pressured 14 times and sacked just three (21%), while Brandon was pressured 45 times and sacked 15 (33%, although 10 of those sacks were of course from one game).

If you’re Alabama DC Kane Wommack, you’ve no doubt dissected that Texas game to figure out the best ways to pressure UT’s line. Not that he likely needs much of a blueprint: Yhonzae Pierre sacked Joey Agular three times last year. Pierre matching up against David Sanders will be a premier battle this weekend, otherwise we must simply hope the rest of Tennessee’s line can bumble through the game keeping MacIntyre mostly clean.

One other matchup note, and it’s kind of an obvious one. Bama CB Dijon Lee lost his mind last week, punching a Georgia player right before a critical third down play in the fourth quarter. The obvious play is to go after Lee early and try to get in his head, hoping he makes another critical error.

Prediction

As stated before, Tennessee isn’t supposed to win this game. There’s certainly a world in which the JAR predicted score of a 30-20 (or worse) Bama win. But there’s also certainly a world in which Tennessee wins this game. The Vols could have—arguably should have—beaten the Longhorns. Do you think Bama is better than Texas? Maybe. Are they demonstrably better? I doubt it. Josh Heupel hasn’t lost to Alabama in Neyland Stadium as Tennessee’s head coach, and there’s a great chance that continues Saturday. Tennessee 27, Alabama 23.

Essential

Watching Tennessee play offense in 2022 was like being a 10-year-old boy and turning on MTV to see Tawny Kitaen writhing on the hood of David Coverdale’s Jaguar. It stirred something inside you. Since then rule changes, lack of a consistent starter at QB, and the fact that something like 40% of the SEC now runs a version of the playbook that was unique to Knoxville just a few years ago have sucked the fun out of the Volunteer offense. Instead of Ms. Kitaen dancing on a Jaguar, it’s more like your Nana smoking Marlboro Reds leaned up against a Chrysler Pacifica.

So I get the frustration many Vol fans have with the state of the team and the head coach. I really do, I’ve been there before. Can we hop in the Pacifica with Nana and take a drive down memory lane?

On September 25, 1999, Tennessee beat Memphis 17-16 after Tee Martin hit Cedrick Wilson on a 15-yard TD pass with one minute left in the game. The touchdown was set up by a miracle 53-yard pass completion to Bobby Graham, which accounted for about a quarter of Tennessee’s offensive production for the day. I distinctly remember walking out of that game telling anyone who would listen that the game might as well have been a loss. If you can’t beat Memphis without divine intervention, then you might as well just lose to them; or at least that’s what 21-year-old me believed.

Later that year, #3 Tennessee would have its national championship hopes dashed on a trip to Fayetteville, AR, with an unranked Razorback squad beating the Vols 28-24. It was a lesson in perceived loss vs. actual loss: that Memphis game didn’t look so bad in hindsight. A win is a win. You’re not guaranteed any of them, so you should probably enjoy the ones you get.

In fact, between that loss at Arkansas in 1999 and last Saturday’s win, Tennessee would only have one other victory in Fayetteville: in 2001, when arguably the most talent-laden team UT has ever fielded went to Razorback Stadium and beat a milquetoast, unranked Arkansas 13-3. An ugly win to be sure, but not as ugly as the alternative.

If you think it’s time for Tennessee to move on from the current head coach, via con dios. I disagree, but I get it. I’ve felt it before too. Based on my personal experience with those feelings, I would encourage you to look at the whole body of work, and the overall trend of the program for the past decade-plus before making that call (I’d also remind you that the current team is 5-1 and ranked in the top 15).

But more than that, I’d implore you to enjoy the wins, whether they are ugly or pretty, because you never know how many more you’re going to see. Tennessee beat Arkansas Saturday. Do you know it?

Five Factor Box Score

Statistically, you’d never even know that Saturday fit into the category of “ugly win”. George MacIntyre threw for nearly 250 yards in his first collegiate start. DeSean Bishop was near 150 rushing. Tennessee was more explosive, had a higher success rate, and had a higher havoc rate than both Arkansas and the national mean. So why did the game feel ugly?

There were three frustrating possessions in the first half that kept Arkansas in the game. On their first drive, UT opted to kick a 51-yard field goal rather than go for it on 4th and 3 from the Arkansas 33. Later in the half, a gorgeous deep throw to Braylon Staley was called back for a phantom illegal touching, and right before half Bishop collided with MacIntyre’s arm, causing a fumble that nearly went the other way for 6 if not for MacIntyre and Radarious Jackson chasing the play down.

That’s three scoring opportunities with zero points. What if Tennessee picked up 10, 13, 17, or even (dare to dream!) 21 points from those opportunities? All else being equal, you would’ve been perfectly happy with a 24-0, or even 17-0 halftime lead. Add 17 to the final score; would you be upset after the game had UT won 41-17? I’d hope not.

And I know, if ‘ifs’ were fifths… But also consider how Tennessee went to that place and gave the ball away three times, with a brand new QB, and still won. You can’t be happy with that? Maybe I’m being too generous to the Fire Heupel crowd.

Rushing Report

Tennessee had their typical successful day running the ball. But what likely exasperated many a Vol fan was the success Arkansas found on the ground, especially coming out of the half. Add that to those frustrating first half drives by UT and it makes sense why so many Vol faithful boiled over by the end of this one.

Player Usage/PPA

Once again we see that if you hold the opposing QB to a negative PPA, you’re probably going to win the game. Between KJ Jackson and Sutton Smith you’ve got 75% of Arkansas’ offense producing -4.6 PPA. Tennessee also limited Chris Marshall, who is likely the Hogs’ most dynamic player.

George MacIntyre was solid in his debut despite a few turnovers. I maintain the fact that he will need to show some level of willingness to run the ball if he’s going to remain UT’s QB for any amount of time. He doesn’t have to run like Faizon did, but teams are not going to respect the RPO game if MacIntyre doesn’t pull the ball and run sometimes.

And the obvious point—we’ve got to find as many ways as possible to get the ball in Mike Matthews’ hands. The wildcat run with him was interesting. Need more wrinkles like that.

Recently

DeSean Bishop rushed for a career high 220 yards and 3 TDs as Tennessee (#15 AP/#14 Coaches, 4-1, 1-1 SEC) beat Auburn 24-14 last Saturday in Neyland. Naturally, the talk this week has focused on UT’s change at QB as George MacIntyre entered the game late in the 2nd half and guided the Vol offense on three touchdown drives. But the focus should really be on some tremendous individual stat lines in that game including Bishop’s performance; S Dejuan Lane’s nine tackles, two sacks, 2.5 TFLs and a pick; and P Jackson Ross landing five kicks inside the Auburn 11-yard line, with three of those inside the five.

Meanwhile Arkansas (NR, 2-3, 0-2 SEC) fell at Texas A&M 34-17. The Hogs have struggled against FBS opponents this season, also losing to Utah 43-10 and Georgia 45-17. Also interesting to note that Arkansas gave up a touchdown on each of those opponent’s opening drive.

Previously on Vols vs. Hogs

Tennessee beat Arkansas 34-31 last October in Knoxville. After a competitive first half that saw UT overcome two seven-point deficits, Tennessee scored 24 straight points for a 34-17 lead before Arkansas added a couple of garbage time TDs to make the final score look closer than the game really was (backup QB Jake Merklinger was taking snaps in the 4th quarter, for example).

Of course, that’s somewhat burying the lead, as last year’s game was a must-win revenge game for the previous year’s loss at Arkansas. The 2024 Vols lost just three games: one to National Champion Ohio State, one to SEC Champion Georgia, and one to 7-6 Arkansas in the Den of Inequity known as Razorback Stadium.

And that’s the real story of this series. Tennessee does not win in Fayetteville. Not just football, which has a 2-5 record in Fayetteville, but baseball (a 13-25 record there, including the 2025 Super Regional loss), and basketball (5-13, just 1-4 under Rick Barnes) have all gone to Northwest Arkansas and struggled. Actually that’s not strictly true: Tennessee football has never lost in Little Rock (3-0, last playing there in 1997), it’s just Fayetteville proper that gives the Vols fits.

Five Factor Preview & JAR

JAR was born in part because I knew in 2024 that Arkansas was going to be a dangerous game for UT, but I didn’t know how to quantify it. A rudimentary version of the system showed that of the teams on that year’s schedule, Arkansas had a sneaky-high talent level that matched up with Tennessee, and considering the Vols’ tendency to lose a road game they shouldn’t, the Fayetteville road trip was always going to be a trap in 2024. Thankfully the more developed version of JAR shows a much weaker Arkansas team waiting for UT’s visit:

In fact, JAR sees Arkansas as the weakest team left on Tennessee’s schedule, by far, and more in line with Kennesaw State than even the weakest SEC games left on the Vols’ slate.

(Looking ahead, if you dare, JAR has downgraded the Alabama game from a tossup to a loss—we’ll see if that holds after this week’s games.)

Matchups & Personnel

Last week I pointed out the number of USF transfers playing for Auburn. This week it’s the same story for former Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield, who brought a host of Tigers with him when he was hired by the Hogs.

Also, just like was pointed out with Alex Golesh last week, Silverfield has a surprisingly poor coach effect record. One would assume that these mid-major coaches that have enough success to be picked up by Power 4 programs would have run roughshod over less talented teams at their level, but for two coaches in two weeks now, that hasn’t been the case.

George MacIntyre will get his first start as the Vols QB, getting the opportunity to lead the MASH unit known as Tennessee offense and trying to do what no UT QB since Casey Clausen has done: win in Fayetteville.

MacIntyre should find the offense a little easier to run this week, as this will be the weakest DL Tennessee has faced in weeks. The Arkansas front seven isn’t particularly dynamic outside of DE Quincy Rhodes and Khmori House, who leads the Hogs in sacks and TFLs from his STAR position.

Still, the question remains until Tennessee answers it: can the Vols protect the QB long enough to develop explosive passing plays? Dynamic front seven or not, every DC in the conference must be licking his chops seeing how porous the Vols’ OL has been this season.

Prediction

There’s no reason for the Vols to lose this game. But that could be said about several of the games UT has lost over there the last couple of decades. And then there’s the fact that Tennessee’s offense has been downright anemic of late. JAR predicts Tennessee 45-0. There’s a good chance that the game will be much closer than that simply because Tennessee could struggle to move the ball once again. The worry is always that the longer you let the underdog hang around, the bigger chance there is for an upset.

I think I’ve belabored the point that Tennessee has had little success in Fayetteville. The other side of the coin, though, is that Arkansas hasn’t had much success in Fayetteville lately either. It’s been dang near mutiny this season for the Arkansas athletic department. Ryan Silverfield never got the chance to win over his home crowd because they have so much disdain for AD Hunter Yurachek. Hog fans have been wearing bags on their heads, and that’s if they go to the games at all.

Tennessee will beat Arkansas, and the Fayetteville losing streak will come to an end. And while it should be a comfortable win in the neighborhood of 45-0 as JAR says, until the Vols offense shows they can put up those points in a SEC game, I’ll call it a more conservative Tennessee 31, Arkansas 13.

Recently

A heroic defensive effort came up short as Tennessee (#17 AP/#17 Coaches’, 3-1, 0-1 SEC) just couldn’t find enough points in a loss to Texas last Saturday. There was plenty to be encouraged about for Vol fans, like the defense holding Texas to just 3/12 on third down, forcing five three-and-outs, limiting the Longhorns to just 61 rush yards, sacking Arch Manning six times and forcing an interception, as well as Qua Moss’ electric punt return TD and an innovative onside kick recovery. As for the other side of the ball, well, um, hey, Faizon Brandon had 75 yards rushing (just don’t ask how many yards he lost to sacks).

Meanwhile Auburn (NR AP/RV Coaches’, 3-1, 1-1 SEC) bounced back from a previous week loss to Florida by beating Vanderbilt 21-15. The Dores outgained Auburn in the game, but two blocked kicks, including a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown, pushed the Tigers over the top.

Previously on Vols vs. Tigers

One week after losing to #1 in Neyland Stadium, Vol fans’ thoughts turn back to the last time UT beat the top-ranked team in America: 1985 against Auburn and future Heisman-winning RB Bo Jackson, who took himself out of the game in the second half of a 38-20 Tennessee win. Between that game and 1999, Tennessee posted a 6-2-2 record against AU and held a 22-21-3 lead in the series.

But that 1999 victory was the last for Tennessee in Neyland, as since the turn of the century the Vols have lost three straight at home to the Tigers and have just one win against Auburn, 30-24 in 2018 at Jordan-Hare on the arm of Jarrett Gaurantano. Not that the Vols and Tiger have played much in that time frame. Previously, this was a real rivalry as UT and AU played annually from 1956 to 1991. However, this is only the 9th meeting in the last two decades-plus and just the third in the last 13 years. Overall, Auburn leads the series 29-22-3, but Tennessee leads in Knoxville despite the three straight series losses, 14-10-2.

Josh Heupel will try to reverse Tennessee’s luck in the series when he faces Auburn for the first time as UT’s head coach. Auburn is the only team in the SEC Heupel hasn’t faced and just one of four he hasn’t beaten (0-5 vs UGA, 0-1 vs Ole Miss, 0-1 vs Texas). It will also be Heupel’s first meeting against former assistant Alex Golesh, who is in his first year at Auburn after three years at USF. Golesh’s staff includes plenty of names familiar to Vol fans, including co-DC/DB coach Tim Banks and co-OC/WR coach Kodi Burns.

JAR & Five Factor Preview

There are five factors that are highly correlated with winning football. The graph below gives you an idea of how good each team is at each of those five areas, along with their associated statistics:

To be honest, JAR seems to be overcooking Tennessee’s offense by a good bit. It’s hard to see what they put out there against Texas and think that’s the #5 offense in America. But then again, JAR is built on the five factors, and there’s still a lot of green on the offensive side of Tennessee’s charts. It might be even more odd that the Vols defense is only #9.

Where JAR has been spot-on so far this season is in predicting the course of Tennessee’s season. Of course, anyone could have predicted Tennessee wins in the first three games, but JAR said the Vols would barely break a sweat, and that was pretty much true. It also said the Texas game would be a toss-up, and it was. We will see if that trend continues as JAR says this weekend’s game will be a little tougher than the Georgia Tech matchup, but not by much.

Personnel & Matchups

I know a lot of Tennessee fans want to credit Alex Golesh with the early success Josh Heupel had in Knoxville. Some would even dare to say that Golesh is the sole reason Heupel got off to a fast start with UT, and that the offense has “fallen off” since Golesh left. And there’s probably some truth to that beyond the fact that SEC defenses adjusted to the Veer-and-Shoot, ultra-wide offensive style. It makes sense that the offense was a little better when a guy who is now a SEC head coach himself was calling plays.

However, there is a faction of Tennessee fans who would go so far as to say they fear this matchup because, in their minds, Golesh might even be the better coach of the two. That’s foolish. Want to hear a stunning stat? Alex Golesh has a negative nine coach effect in his 3+ years of being a HC. Coach effect is measured by looking at the talent levels of opposing teams; if a less-talented team beats a more-talented team, the winning coach gets a +1, and the losing coach gets a -1. Alex Golesh is -9. It’s almost unfathomable: Golesh went 23-15 in three years at USF, so with a -9 coach effect, he had the more talented team in the majority of those losses.

Now coach effect is not a perfect stat. There are circumstances it doesn’t account for, such as the talent level of the players actually in the two-deep (you can have a five-star freshman riding the bench that raises the team’s talent level, but doesn’t contribute to the games’ outcomes). And Golesh did do good things at USF; he had them in bowl games all three years after a previous five-year drought. Poor coach effect number doesn’t make Golesh a bad coach, but it is eye-opening.

Also, notice how many of Auburn’s key players are transfers from South Florida. If Tennessee was playing USF this weekend, would you be afraid? (The answer should be “no”). Consider former Tennessee player Chas Nimrod, who is now Auburn’s leading receiver, and ask yourself where Nimrod would fit into the current rotation of UT WRs—would he even have a place?

The real coaching matchup of the weekend is not Golesh vs. Heupel, it’s Auburn defensive coordinator DJ Durkin vs. Heupel. Durkin is a veteran SEC DC, and there’s no question he’s licking his chops after seeing Texas violate the Tennessee offensive line. Durkin’s defenses have given up just 21 points per game and 3 yards per rush during his tenure, so despite Auburn not having quite the talent level the Longhorns brought last week, the Vols will have their hands full with the Tigers’ defense.

Complicating things is the loss of starting OG Wendell Moe for the season. Tennessee will have to shuffle the line, and while OL coach Glen Elarbee has lots of options, it seems UT is back to square one when it comes to finding the right combination and building cohesiveness along the line.

Prediction

In reality, there’s no reason Tennessee should lose this game. But college football often defies reality. If the Vol offensive line continues to stumblebum through this game, if Faizon Brandon is shellshocked from last weekend, if DJ Durkin’s defense keeps the run game in check and the Tennessee offense can’t find success, this could be a low-scoring, scary game for UT. But Auburn had trouble scoring against a poor Vandy defense last weekend. Even in a low-scoring game, Tennessee’s defense has out-performed Auburn’s this season and gives the Vols an edge.

The more likely scenario is Tennessee’s offense finds success in the run game that looks more like vintage Josh Heupel and that helps Faizon Brandon find some plays in the pass game. It’s a get-right game for the Vols. Tennessee 34, Auburn 13.

However, two things can be true at once, and the other true thing is that Tennessee played a lot of good football against Texas. The defense was heroic. Special teams were solid, as Qua Moss out-performed Texas All-American return man Ryan Niblett, and that onside kick was a doozy. (My assumption is that kick style will be outlawed in the offseason, if not sooner.)

The truth is that Tennessee had a throw into the endzone with time running out that would’ve won them the game. Had the offense played better, that throw might not have been needed. There’s a lot of reasons to be hopeful for the remaining slate of games. If the defense keep performing at this level and the offense can get itself right, this can still be a really good football team.

Five Factor Box Score

I pull these number from collegefootballdata.com, and I think there’s something wrong with how they figured the number of scoring opportunities for Texas, which would also throw off the Longhorns’ points per opportunity. So while I don’t think the numbers are in reality quite as extreme as they look here, the point is that Tennessee did a very good job of keeping Texas out of the endzone. The Tennessee havoc rate continued to be high as well, and surprisingly technically higher than Texas’ despite having fewer sacks than the Longhorns.

Rushing Report

The lack of run game did not help keep pressure off of Faizon Brandon at all, although when you look at the stats, Tennessee still out-rushed Texas 70 yards to 61. And that’s accounting for Brandon’s -73 yards from sacks. And the freshman QB still had positive yardage on the day (even though it was just 2 yards) even with all the sacks.

Player Usage/PPA

I’ve looked at usage and predicted points added numbers after just about every game for the past four seasons or so, and what is possibly the biggest correlation between whether a team won or lost is whose QB had the better PPA numbers. It seems as if every time a QB has a total PPA number that is negative, that team certainly lost. No different this time.

And while Arch’s 3.4 PPA isn’t a world-beating number, it was enough to get his team across the finish line Saturday.

Recently

It started off a little slow, but Tennessee (#14 AP/#13 Coaches’, 3-0, 0-0 SEC) snowballed their way to a blowout 42-9 victory over Kennesaw State on Saturday. It was the final out-of-conference tune-up game for the Vols, who enter the new nine-game SEC schedule is a fierce and sudden way with #1 coming to town.

This touched on in the Advanced Box Score post, but Texas (#1/#1, 3-0, 0-0 SEC) also sputtered in their final warm-up game, beating UTSA 30-6. Considering Tennessee was coming off a big road win against Georgia Tech, and the Longhorns were coming off their stunning 24-23 comeback win against Ohio State, both teams might have been guilty of a little look-ahead to this week’s marquee matchup.

Previously on Vols vs. Horns

This will be the first regular-season game between the schools and the first not played in Dallas. Tennessee and Texas last met in the 1969 Cotton Bowl, a game won by the Longhorns 36-13. Texas also won the 1953 Cotton Bowl against UT, 16-0. Tennessee trailed Texas 14-7 going into the 1951 Cotton Bowl’s 4th quarter, but scored the final 13 points of the game to win 20-14 on the back of Hank Lauricella’s 131 rushing yards.

Of course Josh Heupel is very familiar with the Longhorns from his days at Oklahoma, going 1-1 in the Red River Shootout as a player, and 7-4 against Texas as a coach. In the 2000 OU victory, Heupel led the Sooners to touchdowns on their first five drives and finished the game with 275 yards passing.

Preamble

Before we get into anything about matchups, personnel, etc., I think it’s important to understand something. You might think that Texas is overrated, you might think Steve Sarkisian is overrated. You might think Arch Manning gets hyped on name alone. I might agree with you on some of that. The fact is, the team ranked as #1 in the AP poll wins 86% of the time. It doesn’t mean the #1 team is infallible or unbeatable. But #1 usually wins. They’re supposed to win. If Tennessee pulls this off Saturday, it will have been against the odds.

Tennessee is 2-16 all-time against #1 teams, having last beat the AP #1, Auburn, in 1985 when Bo Jackson decided he didn’t want any more and took himself out of the game. A record of 2-16 seems paltry, but when compared to other programs’ records, seems about normal. The rather disgusting fact is that there is only one FBS team with a winning record against AP #1s, and it’s Alabama. I found this from 2024:

The more you look at the list, the more you realize how Alabama is an outlier. Other than the Tide, there is no real correlation between general historical success and success against #1-ranked teams. Miami has a pretty good 9-10 record. But some of the winningest teams of all time, like Michigan and Nebraska, have just a few wins against #1 combined. Yet somehow Purdue has a 7-11 record in those games. Kentucky has the same number of wins against #1 as Florida does, and more than Tennessee, LSU, or Georgia (UGA’s 2-6 record against #1 is a real testament to how the Dawgs schedule BTW—could someone make them leave the Peach State once in a while, please?). Oregon has never beat a #1, but Oregon State has, and Boston College has more wins against #1 than the whole states of Iowa and North Carolina do combined.

I think you get the point. #1 wins a lot, and on the rare occasion that they lose, there’s no historic predictor of who will beat them. For your own sanity, keep in mind that Tennessee isn’t supposed to win Saturday. This game is the epitome of “high emotion, low expectations.”

Now peep this:

This week’s JAR moves Tennessee up to #7, just a couple of spots below Texas at #5. And while the model does predict a 27-29 loss for the Vols, it has upgraded the game from a sure Tennessee loss to a toss-up.

Five Factor Preview

There are five factors that most highly correlate with winning football games. The Five Factor Tracker gives you a visualization of those factors and their underlying statistics.

Generally, if you’re looking for where an edge might be found in a football game look where one team has a green-shaded number (meaning they are good at that thing) opposite their opponent’s red-shaded number (meaning they are bad at that thing).

A couple of areas that standout to me. Texas has not been a particularly explosive team, especially in the running game. And starting RB Hollywood Smothers was listed as questionable on the initial injury report for the week. If the Vols can force the game onto the arm of Arch Manning, they might also be able to continue creating havoc at a high rate; especially with the front seven, where Texas has struggled to prevent havoc plays.

Personnel & Matchups

Not gonna lie, the Longhorn defense is spooky. There’s a lot of dude dudes on that side of the ball, and it will be by far the stiffest test Faizon Brandon has had in his young career. It will also be a test for Tennessee’s offensive line, which has played well thus far but certainly shown room for improvement as well.

Similar test for the Tennessee defense against a supremely talented Texas offense. Of course you know about Arch Manning, but his receiving corps will cause problems for the back end of Jim Knowles’ defense. Can the Tennessee DC find ways to generate pressure against a Texas OL that looks like a future NFL squad?

Prediction

There’s a reason Texas is #1. There’s not a better win in this young college football season than the Longhorns’ comeback against Ohio State two weeks ago. Texas has an incredibly talented squad and they’ve shown it on the field in a way that most teams haven’t had a chance to yet.

But sometimes that’s all you need: a chance. Tennessee is not supposed to win Saturday. If they do, it will have been against the odds. It’s possible that Tennessee suffers the same fate they did against Ohio State in the playoffs a couple of years ago and simply get overwhelmed by a team with superior talent. However, Josh Heupel’s squad has had success against teams like Alabama and Florida who enjoyed a talent advantage. A lot of the numbers I’ve shared in this post show that Texas is really good, but they also show that Tennessee is good as well. The Vols haven’t been tested like Texas has thus far, but sometimes all you need is a chance.

There’s also something that is hidden in the numbers I’ve shared. JAR basically tries to estimate how teams would fare against each other on a neutral field. The JAR estimate of the score is a 27-29 Vols loss. But Neyland is not a neutral field. There’s another iteration of JAR that adds the conventionally assumed +3 to the home team’s score.

So I’m saying there’s a chance. Tennessee 30, Texas 29.

Extraneous

Five Factor Box Score

A few things stand out. First, UT is still averaging closer to a TD than a field goal per scoring opportunity. That has been a key to Josh Heupel’s best offenses in Knoxville. The 55% success rate is very good, and the havoc rate remains high for a third week in a row. Explosiveness (measured here by PPA added on successful plays) is a number that is typically lower for Heupel offenses, especially in those blowouts that end up feeling kind of grindy (like Saturday).

It should be mentioned that UTSA is a better team than Kennesaw. And that the Texas defense certainly did their job Saturday night. And I’ll give the Longhorns a pass on explosiveness since I gave Tennessee the same pass. But that 3.75 PPO is shockingly low. The Longhorns started the game going TD-FG-TD on their first three drives, but then punted or turned the ball over on downs in five of their next seven drives.

Also surprising is the 78% postgame win expectancy for Texas. That number means that if two teams played ten times and had these same stats, the team with UTSA’s stats would actually win two of those games. Tennessee had a 99% postgame win expectancy. It wasn’t always pretty, but the game was never really in question.

Rushing Report

Tennessee had another nice night running the ball, this time led by Duane Morris’ 116 rushing yards. Morris also peeled off a 42-yard run, and Hunter Barnes added a 38-yard run as well.

Texas needed their run game against the Roadrunners as Arch Manning completed just 17 of 33 passes. It was rush by committee for the Longhorns, as two players (including Manning) ran for 50+ yards and another two gained 40+. Five Texas ball carriers averaged 5+ yards as well.

Player Usage & PPA

A week ago I pointed out Daune Morris’ production and hoped he would get a higher usage percentage. He did, and it paid off. I worry that it came because DeSean Bishop was a little banged up, but hopefully he was held out as a precaution. Bishop still had the third highest usage anyway.

I was wrong in the preview post last week when I said that Rickie Collins started for Syracuse against UT last year. It was actually Steve Angeli, who Syracuse brought in from the portal after spring practice because they didn’t like Collins or the other QBs on the roster. Collins did end up starting some games for the Orange before transferring to KSU for this season. Regardless, Collins was the rare bright spot for Kennesaw on Saturday night, especially in the first quarter when the Owls really hung around tough.

Going back to the 78% win expectancy for Texas against UTSA, I believe a huge part of that comes down to Arch Manning’s -5.8 PPA:

If Tennessee can somehow keep Manning in the negative PPA, and if they can keep Texas averaging closer to a field goal than a touchdown on scoring opportunities, it will be a happy Saturday on Rocky Top.

Recently

Last Saturday night, Tennessee (#15 AP/#14 Coaches’, 2-0, 0-0 SEC) journeyed down I75 to Atlanta, filled Bobby Dodd Stadium with orange, rushed for 299 yards in a 45-27 win, and did not elaborate further.

Meanwhile Kennesaw State (NR, 1-1, 0-0 CUSA) was just outside of Atlanta in their comfy suburban home, where they lost to cross-town rival Georgia State 17-31. And what a bunch of pathetic losers, right? I can’t imagine how embarrassed I’d be if I lost to Georgia State…

Previously on Vols vs. Owls

This will be the first meeting between the schools. KSU did not have a football program prior to 2015, and moved up to FBS in 2022. They have been relatively successful in spite of their youth, going 48-15 in their first five years, winning the Big South Conference title three times, and making a couple of deep runs in the FCS playoffs. Then a year ago, in just their second season of FBS ball, the Owls went 10-3, winning the Conference USA championship.

Saturday will be a return of the Mack as KSU head coach Jerry Mack returns to Neyland Stadium. Mack served as Josh Heupel’s running backs coach from 2021-23 before taking the same position with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2024, and taking over the Kennesaw program last year. Mack was previously a HC at North Carolina Central from 2014-17.

Personnel/Matchups

If the name Rickie Collins is familiar, it’s because he was Syracuse’s starting QB when the Vols opened against ‘Cuse in Atlanta last season. It was a rocky season for Collins, who lost the starting job to Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli, but regained it briefly when Angeli got injured. Collins finished the season 0-5 as started for the Orange, and is now on his third school (after beginning his career at LSU).

Graduate linebacker Baron Hopson is the Owls’ leader on defense. Hopson was named to the Nagurski and Lombardi award watch lists, and named a G6 Preseason All-American, as well as the Conference USA Preseason Player of the Year.

JAR Ratings & Prediction

It’s hard to write much of a preview for a game like this, because Tennessee can basically name their score on Saturday. Although the competition will only be marginally better than what UT saw against Furman, this game lacks the anticipation of the season opener. And I know, there’s still that BVS deep down inside you that can’t shake the memory of another Atlanta team coming to Neyland and doing the unthinkable. But other than a sluggish game against Austin Peay a few years ago, Josh Heupel’s teams haven’t really struggled in games like this. Kennesaw St. had a really nice season last year, but even that team wouldn’t have given Tennessee many problems, against the 2025 or 2026 squads.

Here’s something, JAR has Tennessee in the top 10 and has upgraded next week’s Texas game to a tossup. It’s still got Texas winning 34-29, but that’s an eye wide open emoji for sure, and we will get into that next week.

As for this week, that #9 ranking JAR has for the Vols is not an outlier. ESPN’s SP+ has UT at #11, and another analytics-based rating, the FEI, has the Vols in a virtual tie with Ole Miss at #13. Both ratings have Tennessee’s offense in the top 10. Neither of them have KSU rated any higher than JAR does at 110. JAR does have Tennessee beating the Owls by the hilarious score of 55-1, and I DARE KSU to score one single point in this game. In reality, it’s probably an early FG and a garbage time TD for the Owls, Tennessee 55, Kennesaw State 10.

Five Factor Box Score

Tennessee’s defense allowed less than a field goal on six scoring opportunities. That’s the epitome of bend but don’t break D. And while the 46% success rate allowed is somewhat concerning, as long as the defense is holding their opponents out of the endzone while the UT offense finishes their drives, the success rate won’t matter much. The 22% havoc rate is nice too, even when down from week 1’s ridiculous 50%+ havoc rate. The offense held up their end of the deal too, with a scorching 6+ points per opportunity, basically a touchdown every trip into the Tech 40.

I’d also like to point out that all of the numbers above are based on the five factors that are most highly correlated with winning football games. None of them are related to penalties. There has been a lot made of the number of penalties UT had Saturday night. I made the poor decision of hopping on Twitter for a few minutes during the game, and from the discourse there you’d have thought that the Vols were down three scores instead of the other way around, all based on a few penalties (that the broadcast couldn’t seem to replay, btw).

There is no statistical correlation between penalties and winning/losing games. There just isn’t. I know you want there to be, because “undisciplined football” or whatever. Because your high school coach would’ve made you run gassers until you puked over some of those penalties, and by gawd these kids today…. But there just isn’t a correlation.

Tennessee is the most penalized team in the Power 4 over the last four seasons. It’s also been over a decade since Tennessee has had the level of success they’ve had over those four seasons. I’m not saying that penalties are good or desirable. There’s no excuse for the offense to false start when they’re the ones controlling the snap. And drawing an unsportsmanlike because you flex on a guy that just gained 12 yards is infuriatingly dumb.

I can also imagine situations where penalties can affect the statistics that do matter: success rate is basically a measure of how good a job you’re doing staying ahead of the chains, and a holding call or false start can get you off schedule. Field position is a factor correlated to winning, and penalties can effect that (although UT won the field position battle easily, despite the rash of penalties).

But many Vol fans want to know how we fix the penalties issue, and the answer is an uncomfortable one: we don’t, because they seemingly aren’t coach’s priority, and they ultimately don’t decide who wins or loses. For your own mental health it’s probably best to sit with that a while and find peace with it.

(And now the group chat will roast me with every holding call the rest of the season.)

Rushing Report

Honestly both teams had a fairly productive night running the ball, and the Jackets needed it because Alberto Mendoza is not his brother. Should we be worried that GT had a pretty good night on the ground? I’m going to say no, since Tennessee was even more effective rushing, and grinding a few rushing yards here and there was the only thing Tech seemed to have going for them on the night.

Player Usage & PPA

If you want to know how Tennessee planned to protect their freshman QB in his first road start, take a look at the usage numbers. Just 38% usage for the signal caller and a combined 58% for the RBs.

I always point out that PPA isn’t a great individual stat, but you can tell some important things from it. For example, despite the lowish usage number, Faizon made the most of his opportunities with 13.2 PPA. I’d also like to point out two players whose PPA numbers are making an argument for them to get a higher usage share. First Duane Morris, who has had a higher usage share later in games which might mean he’s taking advantage of a worn-down defense. But he has flashed on many of those carries, and it might be worth giving him a few more early carries to see what happens. Also Radarious Jackson, who had 4 receptions on 4 targets and more PPA than anyone except Faizon and DeSean Bishop, but not enough usage to show up on the chart above. The kid might deserve a few more targets.

And once again, when the opposing QB’s PPA is negative, you probably won the game.

Recently

The 130th edition of Tennessee (#20 AP/18 Coaches, 1-0, 0-0 SEC) football got off to a hot start Saturday, beating Furman 56-9. The Vols racked up 638 yards of total offense (329 passing/309 rushing) while QB Faizon Brandon went 13/17 for 226 yards and 3 TDs (0 INT). Brandon also added 68 yards on 10 carries and another 2 TDs. Oh, and the defense created a havoc play on every other down, led by Xavier Gilliam’s three sacks and five TFLs. Not bad.

Meanwhile Georgia Tech (NR, 0-1, 0-0 ACC) did not get the start they wanted in 2026, losing to Colorado 14-13 when a potential game-winning kick was blocked by current Buffalo/former Vol Boo Carter.

Previously on Vols vs. Jackets

Tennessee beat Georgia Tech 42-41 in double overtime on Sept. 4, 2017. It would be the lone highlight of Butch Jones’ final year as UT head coach, and you’re forgiven if you’ve suppressed the memory that this was the game where Butch debuted the turnover trash can.

Ignoring the Butch Jones shenanigans (which is just generally good life advice), this truly is a storied and largely forgotten rivalry. UT and Tech played on a yearly home-and-home basis in the early 1900s and again from the early 40s through the late 80s, even after the Yellow Jackets left the SEC in 1963.

The game will be played “on The Flats” as Tech folks say, at Bobby Dodd Stadium (the oldest FBS stadium in the country, dating back to 1905) for the first time since 1986 (a 13-14 Tennessee loss when the Vols missed a last-minute FG on a soggy field). Bobby Dodd, of course, was an all-American QB for General Neyland, playing at UT from 1928-1930. Dodd became a hall-of-famer for his career as a Vol in 1959, and later was inducted for his coaching career at Tech, going 165-64-8 from 1945-66.

Tennessee leads the series 25-17-2, but are just 11-12 in games played in Atlanta.

Personnel

It’s hard to tell what Tech is actually planning to do with their offense Saturday. I appreciate the fact the Jackets still publish a depth chart. But when the depth chart lists three sets of starting RBs, two sets of starting TEs, and three sets of starting WRs, it’s hard to take seriously (although I’d love to see them try and run the rare 32 personnel trips formation). The GT offense found very little success against Colorado last week. Although first-year starting QB Alberto Mendoza, younger brother of Fernando, completed 17/23 passes for 237 yards and no INTs, he also didn’t find the endzone. There’s not a lot of experience on the Georgia Tech offense, but they do have high hopes for DB turned WR Dalen Penson and Michigan transfer RB Justice Haynes. Running back is a particularly important piece for the Ramblin’ Wreck as they have rushed for 200+ yards in 22 of their last 37 wins, but gained just 51 yards on the ground in the loss to Colorado. Another bellwether stat for Tech has been sacks: GT has allowed just nine sacks in each of the last two seasons, but allowed three to the Buffs last week. With the offensive line being perhaps Tech’s most experienced group, they’re going to need to produce at a much higher level for the Jackets to compete this week.

While much of the talk surrounding Tennessee this week has focused on Faizon Brandon’s debut and Mike Matthews’ breakout, it’s the defense that had me hyped on Saturday. Questions about whether or not the defense could pressure the QB were answered. Xavier Gilliam was a beast. Jeremiah Telander looked like a weapon playing at the line. And yes, “it’s Furman”, but the operation of the defense looked cleaner than expected. And the Vols get Arion Carter back this week. After pledging to donate $427 (the amount of the plane ticket Carter was suspended over) to his mother’s nonprofit charity, Carter has been named to the Jason Witten Collegiate Man of the Year Award watchlist.

Tech’s defense doesn’t have much in the way of experience, but there are some highly talented players there. DE Noah Carter, CB Jaylen Mbakwe, and S Tae Harris are some of the roster’s highlights. Mbakwe had a PBU, Carter had a TFL, and Carter had nine tackles in the Colorado game. It’s hard to fault the Tech defense for the loss last week too, as they held Colorado to just 14 points.

Of course Tennessee’s offense was under a ton of scrutiny with Faizon Brandon’s debut game. The true freshman QB rose to the occasion, and other than maybe a couple of throws, didn’t really look like a freshman at all. Brandon fits the bill physically, and his willingness to run is going to be the difference in a game or two this year.

JAR Five Factor Preview/Prediction

After just one game the stats for a full Five Factor breakdown don’t really work, but JAR does favor Tennessee by a large margin, 41-5. I will actually be angry if Tech somehow scores exactly 5.

This is a game that looked a lot scarier before we saw either team play. While it now looks like one that the Vols should win handily, I still have a theory that Georgia Tech spent a hefty portion of their offseason prepping for UT. The Yellow Jackets have for the last several years moved a game to Mercedes-Benz Stadium knowing that the visiting team will buy a huge portion of tickets. Had Tech decided to do that this year, the Tennessee game would be the most likely candidate. But they didn’t. Rather than forfeit home field advantage to sell more tickets, they chose to make UT play in the little band box called Bobby Dodd, looking for a statement win. Brent Key has come close against UGA the past couple of years. If they could get Tennessee against the ropes on The Flats, they could finally get Key his signature victory against a big-name SEC foe.

But after the way both teams played in their openers, Key and the Yellow Jackets have an uphill battle. Tickets were still plentiful earlier this week, and after seeing that fact promoted on several Vol online outlets, I expect there will be a hefty orange presence in downtown Atlanta Saturday night. Key’s teams have been known for their toughness, so I don’t expect them to roll over. But I do expect Tennessee to come back to Knoxville with a big road win. Tennessee 45, Georgia Tech 10.

There will be plenty of chances to find that out, but the early returns are good. Faizon Brandon looked sharp in his debut, and his decisiveness and willingness to run when needed are qualities that have made the offense run at its best under Josh Heupel. Brandon became the first SEC QB to throw for three TDs and run for two more in his first start since Cam Newton for Auburn in 2010. And while I’m not saying Brandon will win a Heisman trophy and national championship, I’m not not saying it either.

Mike Matthews had a career-high 132 yards, DeSean Bishop ran for 97 and Justin Baker added a 73-yard TD in the 4th quarter. But beyond the offense, Jim Knowles and the new-look Tennessee defense also showed tremendous promise. The Vol defense cried havoc, totaling seven sacks and 13 tackles for loss, led by DT Xavier Gilliam’s six tackles, three sacks (the most in a game by a Vol since 2018, and the NCAA leader after week1), and five TFLs.

Five Factor Box Score

There are five factors most highly correlated with winning in college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. Those are represented above by:

• Success Rate (efficiency): the percentage of time the offense stays “on schedule”, i.e., gaining 50% of needed yardage on 1st down, 70% of needed yardage on 2nd down, and/or converting a 3rd or 4th down.

• Scoring Opportunities/Points Per Opportunity (finishing drives): an offensive trip inside the opposing 40 is considered a scoring opportunity. If you average close to 6 points on those drives, then you’re getting a TD almost every time you cross the 40. If you’re averaging closer to 3 points, you’re at least not having empty scoring opportunities, but you’re not keeping pace with the best offenses. If you’re averaging less than 3 points per opportunity, then you’re getting yourself into position to score and failing.

• Explosiveness: there are many ways to measure explosiveness. I pull statistics from collegefootballdata.org and they use predicted points added per successful play. Basically, if the number is high, you’ve had a high percentage of big chunk plays, and if the number is low you have not (although the number could be low because you’re a grindy running team also). This stat tends to be a little misleading when it comes to UT, because the Vols often run a lot of plays, and they can’t all be bangers.

• Starting Field Position: just like it says on the box. You want your number to be low (starting closer to the opponent goal line) and you want the opponent number to be high (starting further from your goal line).

• Havoc (turnovers): my personal favorite stat, if for no other reason than it allows my to quote the line from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar: “Cry HAVOC! And let slip the dogs of war”. Havoc plays include sacks, tackles for loss, interceptions, and pass breakups. While havoc plays don’t directly equate to turnovers, they do include turnovers and the types of plays most likely to lead to turnovers.

And if you don’t want to remember all of that, just keep in mind when looking at the chart that green-shaded numbers are good, red-shaded numbers are bad. Tennessee had a ton of green Saturday, including an incredible 52% havoc rate (meaning every other play was a havoc play). These numbers typically remove “garbage time” as well (when the game is statistically out of reach).

Rushing Report

The rushing report is another fun little analytical tool that emphasizes how well the offensive line played.

• Power success is the percentage of plays where you needed two yards and you got two yards.

• Stuff rate is the percentage of your offensive plays that were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.

• Line yards are the first four yards of a running play and 50% of yards 5-10. (Basically how good of a push you’re getting up front.) Second level yards are those yards between 5-10 yards past the LOS, and open field yards are yards gained 10+ yards beyond the LOS.

Usage/PPA

Finally we have Usage (the percentage of time a player was used as a passer, targeted receiver (receptions and targets are treated the same) or ball carrier. If you’re unsure about PPA, I made a video explaining it a while back, but simply put it is how much you’re helping your team get in a position to score. PPA is probably a better team stat than individual stat, but it does give an indication of a player’s level of contribution to a win or loss.

And when the opposing QB has a negative PPA, it was a great day for the defense.

A little over a year ago, Vol fans were coming out of spring practice wondering who would be the team’s starting quarterback come September. The same thing happened this year. A year ago, the answer to that question was a surprisingly fun one. Here’s hoping history repeats itself. Tennessee (#20 AP/18 Coaches, 0-0, 0-0 SEC) opens the 2026 campaign with a new QB, a new defensive coordinator, a roster that has been physically re-made by a new S&C coach, and what feels like a whole lot of national media underestimating UT’s chances at being a contender this season.

Meanwhile, Furman (NR FCS, 1-0, 0-0 SoCon) already started their season with a 20-3 win over DII Anderson last Thursday night. The Paladins gained 451 yards in the game while racking up seven tackles for loss and holding the Trojans to just 160 total yards.

Previously on Vols vs. Paladins

This will be the third-ever meeting between UT and Furman, with the Vols posting wins in 1941 (31-6) and 1942 (52-7). Tennessee is 5-0 against FCS teams under Josh Heupel, and the Vols have outscored those teams 292-57. With an average offensive output of 58.2 points against FCS opponents, it’s actually kind of interesting to see if this year’s Tennessee squad can outdo the 1942 team’s 52 points against the Paladins.

JAR Preview

The JAR (Just Another Rating) system is back for 2026. The preseason version is based on three things: returning production, talent level, and recent results. Over the course of the season, the weight of the numbers shifts to the five factors that are most correlated to winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position finishing drives, and turnovers. But the preseason numbers look like this:

At #15, Tennessee isn’t in a much different spot than the AP or Coaches’ poll. But at the schedule breakdown level, you can see that JAR feels UT’s season could go in a lot of different directions. Based on a combination of win probability and 1,000 simulations, JAR sees Tennessee having seven sure wins, two sure losses, and three toss-up games:

Now I’m here to tell you, Tennessee is beating Alabama this Third Saturday in October. Bama hasn’t won in Neyland since 2020, and that’s not going to change this year. That leaves two toss-up games to decide the Vols’ fate, both with revenge storylines: a road trip to Columbia, SC for the first time since 2022, and a home game against Lane Kiffin , which could play out as a de facto playoff game itself if the chips fall correctly this season.

Of course, that’s if JAR is right about the rest of Tennessee’s schedule. But it was pretty close last year. It got one “sure” loss wrong in thinking UT would lose in the Swamp (a historically safe call to make) and called the UGA and Oklahoma games as toss-ups, which they were.

New for this season are score predictions created by JAR. Looking at the predictions for UT, we get a four-point win against Bama, a two-point loss at South Carolina, and a three-point win over LSU.

And what if? Imagine a three-loss Tennessee with wins over Bama and Kiffin. What does the playoff committee do with that? (And no, I’m not writing off the Texas and A&M games just because JAR is. We will get to that as the season unfolds.)

But JAR can also give probabilities for final records, and it believes Tennessee is most likely to go 8-4, with 9-3 a strong possibility and 10-2 on the table:

Hey, a 0.4% probability to go undefeated?

Personnel

Plenty of guesses here. Not 100% sure about the offensive line, not sure the coaches are either. That’s probably a work in progress until the Texas game. I also don’t think we have a clear picture of what the defense will look like either. And I’m not sure how many answers we will get this week. Likely a chance for a lot of guys to get needed live game action.

Apologies for not having a detailed picture of what Furman has. Not to be flippant, but if it ends up mattering what Furman’s roster looks like, we have much bigger problems anyway. However, you might remember the name of Furman QB Jake Garcia from the Netflix series Titletown High, which chronicled in part Garcia’s journey to play at Valdosta High in Georgia. Garcia was eventually ruled ineligible at Valdosta after his parents’ sham divorce that facilitated the move was correctly seen through (you might remember this story). Since then Garcia has been at Miami (2021-’22), Missouri (‘23), East Carolina (‘24), and Michigan (‘25) before landing at Furman with a year of eligibility remaining somehow.

It’s also of some interest that Furman lists three safeties on their starting lineup. Jim Knowles is the godfather of the three-safety set, so I’d expect Tennessee to have plenty of answers ready if the Paladins try to base out of that defense.

Prediction

It should be the kind of game where UT can name the score. The final will likely depend on how long the coaches keep the starters in (and historically with Heupel, it seems to always be uncomfortably long). The Vegas line is around -47. I’m gonna stick with the JAR prediction of Tennessee 59, Furman 0.

Ever since writing previews for each of the offensive position groups (QB/RB/WR/OL) earlier this summer, I’ve struggled with how to approach the defense. With Jim Knowles taking over as defensive coordinator, and his reputation as somewhat of a mad scientist, it’s hard to know what exactly to point out as strengths and weaknesses of the defensive position groups, as we don’t really know the specifics of what they are going to be asked to do. So, as a starting point, I’m just going to discuss defense in general, how we got to where defenses are today, and where Knowles might be taking the UT defense in 2026 and beyond.

Evolution of the Strong Side

If you’re old enough to remember John Chavis as Tennessee’s defensive coordinator, you remember a time when practically every team ran either a 4-3 (four down linemen/three linebackers) or 3-4 (three down linemen/four linebacker) defense. There are many differences in the two but I like to mainly think about an odd-front (3-4) being a two-gap defense, meaning the down linemen are responsible for reading the play and closing one of the two gaps to either side of the man in front of them. In an even front (4-3), the down linemen are assigned a gap to close depending on the scheme called for that play. Especially in the 4-3, which is what Chavis’ teams ran, the main job of the linemen was to close gaps so that the linebackers could flow to the ball and make the tackle.

In that 4-3 defense, one side of the offense's formation is declared the strong side, usually based on which side the tight end lined up on. That strong side linebacker’s main job was to take on lead blocks from the TE or fullback, allowing the middle or weak side linebacker to come in for the tackle. Here’s a page from the 2002 Tennessee defensive playbook showing the defensive front’s alignments:

and another showing coverage responsibilities in Cover 2:

These were pretty standard in the 1990s.

Then something happened. Offenses stopped running the ball at a 55-60% clip as they had through the 80s and 90s. Concepts like the Mike Leach’s Air Raid and Urban Meyer’s Spread Option proliferated throughout the game. The I formation and fullbacks started to disappear, and later tight ends were virtually gone, or at least their roles largely transformed. Suddenly, you couldn’t declare the TE side the “strong side”, as there was no longer a likelihood of the ball being run to that side, or being run at all as offenses started throwing at around a 50% clip or more.

Instead, the “strong side” became the passing strength of the offense. In college football, due to the wide hash marks roughly dividing the gridiron into thirds, that is usually the “field” or wide side. The strong side linebacker went away, replaced by a totally new position often called the “star”. The star back is a hybrid LB/DB that can have run-stopping or pass-defending duties depending on the DC’s approach and/or the opponent’s strengths.

As the back end of the defense evolved with this new 4-2-5 formation, so did the defensive line. In the 4-3 you needed beefy defensive tackles to fill run gaps and eat double teams. You also needed ends that were still big enough to take on OTs, TEs, and fullbacks, but athletic enough to rush the passer, too. In the new 4-2-5, those duties became more specialized. You still have beefy tackles; one is usually a little beefier and lines up over the center, and one still quite beefy boy lines up in a 3 technique, or over the guard’s outside shoulder. Then there is often a run-stopping type defensive end and a pass rush specialist (“edge” or “leo”).

I know that a lot of this is remedial for many of you. but I also think it is important to review the evolution of modern defense to understand what Jim Knowles could be about to unleash in Knoxville.

Enter the Mad Scientist

When he was hired by Oklahoma State, Knowles brought a background in the 4-2-5 philosophy from his time at Duke. In Stillwater, he adapted to the explosive spread offenses of the Big 12 by morphing his defense into an Odd Front-based 3-high safety system. During this era, he utilized Dime personnel—often spinning a safety down to a weakside linebacker position—and three-down pre-snap alignments to disguise coverages. He was characterized during this period as a “light box guy” who utilized horizontal gap-squeezing to control the run. Here’s an example of a typical 3-3-5 look that Knowles used at OK State:

Upon his move to Ohio State, Knowles fused his 3-high safety concepts with a four-down front to leverage Ohio State’s plethora of elite defensive line talent. The same Ohio State unit that plagued UT in the 2024 playoff game and went on to win a National Championship was highly “multiple,” capable of jumping from a 4-2-5 into a 3-high alignment mid-game to confuse offensive coordinators.

Knowing his history, what defense will Knowles use at Tennessee? 4-2-5? 3-3-5? 3-High Safety? Old school 4-3? I think the answer is, “yes”. I’d expect the Vol defense to be truly multiple this season, with a little bit of all these concepts used at different times. So how does UT’s current roster fit with the demands of these various schemes?

Personnel

Interior Defensive Line

Regardless of the defensive formation, Tennessee is unlikely to play a true odd-front defense in the sense of the old 3-4 popular in the 1970s and 80s NFL. In that defense, the nose guard was tasked with “two-gapping”, i.e. being responsible for the running lane on both sides of the center. Tennessee will likely line up in what look like odd fronts this year (three or five across the line), but it is far more likely that whoever is lined up opposite center will have just one gap to attack.

Still, you want a big dude for the job, and the Vols have a few options. The prototypical nose is in the neighborhood of 6’2 to 6’5 and 320 to 350 lbs. UT doesn’t really have anyone who fits that bill right now like Elijah Simmons (6’2/340) and Omari Thomas (6’4/325) did in 2024. Here’s what UT’s D-Line room looks like for 2026, with PFF’s log of where each lined up in 2025 by snap count:

“OVT” is over the tackle in PFF’s parlance. Basically, Gilliam and Robinson have the most experience in lining up over center/in the A gap (though neither are truly “NT prototypes), while Hobbs and Utley are more used to the B gap. That’s likely what you’ll see in 2026 (although Hobbs is now an injury concern late in Fall camp). They all mostly fit the prototype of a defensive tackle: similar height to a NT, but more in the 285-310 range. But as long as the scheme accounts for all six gaps (A-B-C gap to each side, plus containing any runs outside), your run fit doesn’t actually require anyone to fit a particular size, and having a lighter defensive interior could actually pay dividends against pass-heavy SEC offenses. And with how deep Tennessee’s linebacker corps is, Jim Knowles can get real creative in how he uses the LBs to fit those gaps as well.

Linebackers

The prototypical linebacker is around 6’1 to 6’4 and, depending on how you want to use him, anywhere from 230 to 260 pounds. In the traditional 4-3, the Will or weakside LB is going to be on the lighter and faster end of the spectrum. The middle or Mike linebacker needs to be light enough to not be a coverage liability while having enough led in his seat to lay the wood on a running back with a head of steam. And in the traditional sense, the Sam or strongside backer is going to be the heaviest and hardest to move, able to stuff oncoming blockers. If you’re playing a two-linebacker defense, then you’re likely to be using the Will and Mike types, although that can adjust depending on offensive personnel.

Tennessee just happens to have talented dudes that fit the physical molds of all those LB types. It’s interesting to see the breakdown of where each one lined up in games last year according to PFF:

“Box” in this case means “lined up like a traditional linebacker” and “slot” means the player was lined up more like a nickel or star. And you can see that the lighter players played more on the outside, while heavier players played more traditional linebacker roles. Of course, Amare Campbell’s snaps came at Penn State.

But there’s actually a PSU linebacker from 2025 that I find more interesting when looking at the snap counts on PFF. PSU LB Keon Wylie lined up on the line 40% of the time, almost as much as he lined up in a traditional linebacker position (46%). And his remaining snaps were in the slot. If nothing else, it seems to show that Knowles isn’t beholden to traditional position labels. And it makes a player like Jeremiah Telander an interesting case. You’d imagine that Carter and Campbell will play the bulk of Tennessee’s linebacker snaps. But if Knowles can get creative with Telander like he did with Wylie, he could really unlock the full potential of a player that has been lauded for his toughness and football instincts, but criticized for his sideline-to-sideline speed. In that kind of a wildcard role where he’s depended on less to roam the whole field and rather given specific ways to create havoc, Telander could be one of UT’s best defenders in 2026.

Defensive Ends

The Vols’ situation at DE could require Knowles to get imaginative when it comes to pass rush. UT is pretty well set when it comes to big run-stuffing DEs. Tyree Weathersby, Marion Dye, and Jordan Norman are all 260+ dudes who fit the mold of a gap-controlling edge setter. But over the past several years of watching a 4-2-5 defense, Vol fans have become used to the James Pearce/Joshua Josephs LEO edge rushers too.

That could’ve been Jordan Ross’ spot, but he’s gone. It could’ve been Chaz Coleman’s spot, but he never really arrived. As is, UT has some nominal Edge rushers who are unproven; Kedric Golston II and Christian Gass will likely get shots there (Gass is a kid I’ve had high hopes for and would love to see him flash at the spot). But it’s uncertain if Tennessee has a true rush end that will fit the role like Pearce/Josephs. It’s probably the most glaring weakness the Vols have up front.

Defensive Backs

In the interest of getting this preview done before we hit a real game week, I probably didn’t do the DEs justice, and I’m really not going to be able to give you much on the DBs. To my knowledge, Tennessee cross-trains many of the DBs at multiple positions, and I believe the defensive backfield is another place you will see Knowles’ get creative.

At CB you will almost certainly see Ty Redmond, who grew by leaps and bounds after being baptized by fire as a true freshman last year. The other corner should be Auburn transfer Kayin Lee, although it seems I’ve heard sophomore Tim Merritt’s name mentioned quite a bit this fall camp. How will Knowles use the Star/Nickle spot (which will likely be Kansas State transfer Qua Moss most of the time)? Is Moss just coverage guy? And is there a true hybrid LB/DB type to play the 4-2-5 style Star? Do we see a speedy LB like Jadon Perlotte slide over in that role? And how deep is UT’s safety room after the season-ending loss of Edrees Farooq? Can Knowles run his three-high safety defense with what the Vols have? Was that ever even part of the plan?

And that’s what is exciting about Tennessee’s defense in 2026. Going into the season, we have a ton of questions. However, seeing how those questions get answered is going to be fun. There’s also good reason to think the defense will be a good bit better than last year. Think about how unlucky Tennessee was in some of 2025’s losses. Would a slightly better defense have possibly won a couple of those games? And with a couple more wins and a 10-year season, would you feel substantially better about last year’s team? And if that 2025 was a slightly better defense away from 10 wins, what could 2026 do with a defense that will likely be much improved?

This one seems like a big deal though, especially since there seems to be a shift in Tennessee’s recruiting strategy for the 2027 class. After busting tail on the recruiting trail the past several seasons to raise the Vols’ profile, Tennessee and Josh Heupel seem to be more focused on budgeting their NIL funds wisely between spending big on portal players and specific high schoolers who can make an impact immediately instead of highly ranked dudes who will cash a check this year just to portal out the next, with the rest of the class being players who want to come to a school like UT and develop, even if that takes some time. Or at least, that’s what the strategy looks like from a distance.

As a result, Tennessee currently sits at just #24 nationally in On3’s recruiting rankings, behind nine other SEC teams (including Kentucky). And that’s after the massive commitment of this profile’s subject, David Gabriel Georges. But that’s why the commitment of DGG was so important: if you’re going to bank the success of your class on a big splash signing, you better get him in the boat.

Gabriel Georges plays for the Baylor School in Chattanooga and won the TSSAA DII-AA state championship in 2025 after being a runner-up in 2024. DGG is a two-time Tennessee Mr. Football award winner and is likely the favorite in 2026 as well, having run for over 2800 yards and 41 touchdowns going into his senior year.

Rated as a “5-star plus” player and a top-10 national prospect, DGG is the #1 player in the state of Tennessee and one of the top two running backs in the country. But his recruitment wasn’t as simple as UT pulling an in-state player since DGG is a native of Quebec and speaks English as a second language, and I’m only now realizing what a blessing it was for this kid to learn English as a non-native in southern Appalachia.

Film

If you’re reading this you’ve probably seen the kid’s highlights. But for posterity:

The first three plays from that compilation really show off DGG’s unique skillset. Play 1 showcases his elusiveness, explosion through contact, and speed:

In play 2 you can see how patient he is in finding the crease and accelerating through the point of attack:

And on this third play you see his physicality and relentlessness:

Haters will say that the level of competition these plays are made against is mid at best. And sure, I’d love to see him play against a 7A Atlanta school or some south Florida teams. But the point is a lot less about who he’s up against and a lot more about what he’s able to do. He’s a Swiss army knife. He has all the skills; if just one transfers to SEC-level play he will be a 1,000-yard rusher. From there the potential is unlimited.

Maybe Kinda Like*

These comparisons are based solely on the size, position, and rating of backs that have signed with UT this century. It’s hard to find a comp for DGG, considering his unique combination of skills and size

• Jabari Davis (2001): At 6’ and 230 lbs., the J-Train was beefier than DGG and built like a true power back. He’s also the third-highest rated RB Tennessee has ever signed, and rushed for 1228 yards in a four-year career on the Hill, but seemed to be plagued by injury and never quite lived up to that lofty status he had coming out of high school.

• Cedric Houston (2001): At 6’ and just 200 lbs., Houston might be a better size comparison with DGG than Davis. Coming to UT in the same class as Davis, Houston was lower-rated but the more productive back for his career, being a top-10 rusher in the SEC from his sophomore year on, and a 1,000-yard back in his senior season (although Davis had more career TDs than Houston did).

• Gerald Riggs Jr. (2002):

  

  Speaking of can’t-miss backs from Chattanooga, Riggs was the highest-rated RB Tennessee had ever signed to that point, and the Chattanooga Times-Free Press published the above picture of Riggs in a Superman outfit on the cover of their high school preview edition prior to his senior year. I was living in Chattanooga at the time and fully bought into the hype. And while Riggs did run for over 1,000 yards his junior year (the same year Cedric Houston went over 1K), injury shortened his Preseason All-American senior season. (Riggs went on to win a Grey Cup with the Toronto Argonauts, so there is that.) At 6’ and 220, Riggs is a good size comparison with DGG, and he was higher rated—though I wonder is some of these early-2000s guys would be as highly rated with today’s standards?

• Bryce Brown (2009): Brown was the greatest player in the history of sports. The highest rated player to ever sign with Tennessee or anywhere else, Brown was going to change the face of football forever. Of course, he lasted one season at UT before his coach went somewhere to be fired at an airport and Brown transferred to Kansas State (I just realized that Gerald Riggs Jr. had a longer pro career than Brown LOL). Brown rushed for 460 yards in his one season as a Vol, backing up Montario Hardesty. Size-wise a good comp for DGG, hype-wise UNTOUCHABLE.

• Rajion Neal (2010): The one back on this list that was not a 5*. However, Neal came to Knoxville at 5’11 and 210 lbs., so probably the closest to DGG’s size. Neal also had ones of the most complete careers on this list, finishing with nearly 2800 yards and 24 TDs from scrimmage on some pretty bad Derrick Dooley teams.

Ty Chandler was another fairly high-ranked prospect that might’ve been another good comp height-wise, but was a good 30 lbs. lighter than DGG if his current weight of 220 lbs. is accurate. Jalen Hurd could be a good comp ratings-wise, but he was much bigger than Gabriel Georges. Like I said, it’s just hard to find a back Tennessee has had in the past with this set of skills at this particular size.

The hope is that DGG outshines this whole list. It is interesting that out of all these backs, the lower-rated Rajion Neal had arguably the best career at UT (Houston had a nice career, and Riggs had one good season). When considering how much the game has changed since the early 2000s, coupled with Josh Heupel’s offense, it is likely he will. After all, Tennessee has averaged 200 yards rushing/game since 2021 with backs that were considerably lower-rated prospects than Gabriel Georges (hence why they weren’t on the list).

Recruiting services like On3 compare Gabriel Georges to Quinshon Judkins, formerly of Ole Miss and Ohio State, due to the physicality they both show, with DGG likely being faster at this stage of his career than Judkins was. Chris Lowe has compared DGG to Herschel Walker, at least physically. And of course, DGG likes to model himself after another former Vol, Alvin Kamara. Coming out of HS, Kamara was not as highly ranked and at 5’10 and 195 lbs. was even smaller than Gabriel Georges. But when you watch them both with a football in their hands, you don’t have to squint to see the similarities.

Footballs are weird. They’re oblong, for one thing. Almost every other ball sport is played with a sphere. Sure, there are nuances to those spheres: the seams on a baseball will affect it’s flight, as will any scuffs or substances on it. But it comes from the factory pretty dang close to spherical; at least much more so than a football. This is true of basketballs, tennis balls, golf balls. Things like composition and air pressure will affect them, but for the most part, you can replicate the same bounce from any one of those balls 99% of the time. Throw it against a wall, and it will come right back to you.

Not footballs. Go out to the garage and bounce the football a few times. You certainly can’t throw it like a football is meant to be thrown and have it bounce back to you. If you throw it on it’s side it’s not impossible to get a replicable bounce, but it’s dang hard. It takes a lot more effort than dribbling a basketball. And just a little variation in how the ball hits can make a huge difference in how it rebounds. If it hits on the laces, you’re probably chasing it down the driveway.

That’s why on November 1^st, in the first quarter of Tennessee’s game against Oklahoma, you saw what might have been the unluckiest play of the season. “Luck” is not a subjective term here: there are a few ways that “luck” is measured analytically in football, and one of them is by fumbles lost. Fumbling itself might be a skill issue, but losing a fumble is attributed to luck because of the odd shape and unpredictable bounce of the ball itself. Both the median and mode team in college football only lose a fumbled ball about 46% of the time. Indiana was incredibly lucky in this regard in 2025. The Hoosiers fumbled 8 times in 16 games and only lost one of them: just a 12.5% lost fumble rate. Boston College was the unluckiest team with 90% of their fumbles lost (9 lost fumbles out of 10 times they put the ball on the ground). Tennessee was overall somewhat lucky in 2025, losing 6 of 16 fumbles, or 37.5%: better than average and around the bottom of the upper-third of all teams.

Additionally, teams recover their own fumbles substantially more when the fumble occurs in the backfield. That makes sense—when the ball is fumbled in the backfield there are going to be more offensive players in the vicinity when compared to a fumble 20 yards downfield, where there might only be the fumbler himself around to fall on the ball in the midst of several defenders.

That’s what makes R Mason Thomas’ strip-sack-fumble return for Oklahoma so unlucky for the Vols. On 1^st-and-10 at the Sooners’ 24, Joey Aguilar looked left, got smacked from behind by a blitzing OU LB (assisted by an uncharacteristic whiff of a block by RT David Sanders), and fumbled a ball that took one perfect bounce right into the free hand of an onrushing Thomas, who barely broke stride on his way to the endzone for a game-tying touchdown. It took the trifecta of bad luck: a team that loses fumbles less frequently than most, a defensive recovery in the backfield, and bounce that you couldn’t replicate more than two times out of ten. Any one of those elements are unlikely to happen, all three happening on the same play is hardly fathomable. Depending on how optimistic or pessimistic you are, this was a 14-, 10-, or 7-point swing in a game ultimately decided by six points.

And there’s another measure of luck we can dissect: how do you fare in 1-score games? Tennessee had five 1-score games in 2025: Georgia, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and the Music City Bowl against Illinois. The Vols went 2-3 in those games. Indiana again was one of the lucky ones: Curt Cignitti’s crew was 4-0 in one-score games. Ole Miss was another lucky team with a 6-1 record. That was after the Rebels went 0-3 in such games in 2024. And that’s usually how it goes. Rarely does a team stay winning or losing a lot of close games year over year. For example, Arkansas State was 7-0 in one-score games in 2024. But the Fightin’ Butch Joneses regressed to the mean in ’25, going 3-4.

The Vols weren’t an outlier with their 2-3 close-game record. But however you feel about Tennessee’s 2025 season, would you feel better if those results were reversed? Record-wise it’s just one game, and on its face 9-4 doesn’t feel much different than 8-5. However wins against UGA, OU, and finishing with a bowl win likely puts a shine on a season that felt a little lackluster in the end. Heck, beating Georgia and Oklahoma probably keeps UT in the playoff hunt, even if you swap those with losses to MSU and Arkansas. (And calling that Arkansas game a one-score game is a little disingenuous; the Hogs got a couple of garbage-time scores to reel in a game that was out of hand enough for the Vols to play backups like Jake Merklinger in the 4^th quarter).

Those one-score games certainly could have gone the other way too. Tennessee coughed up the ball a concerning amount of times to keep the Bulldogs alive in Starkville; that overtime could’ve gone the other way. We’ve already covered how unlucky the Oklahoma loss was, and there was another strip-sack-fumble touchdown in the Illinois game. That one happened in the endzone, but even if Tennessee had fallen on the ball for a safety, the Illini would have needed to drive for a touchdown, not just a field goal, to win the game. There’s even a world where Arkansas completes their manic 4^th-quarter comeback, I suppose.

And not to reopen the wound, but Tennessee had an 83% postgame win expectancy against Georgia. That means analytically, a game that plays out with the same statistics as Tennessee-Georgia is going to be won by the team with Tennessee’s stats 83 out of 100 times. To make things worse, based on his career statistics Max Gilbert makes the game-winning kick against Georgia 8 out of 10 times. Poor execution? Yes. Unlucky? Also yes. You’d probably find a good chunk of Vol fans who, if offered, would reverse the luck in just this one game and let the Vols lose the other four close games to finish 7-6. But you can’t repeat the past, old sport. No amount of “should’ve” will put that ball through the uprights now.

So what’s the lesson then? If none of these outcomes are changing, what the point of looking back on them? For one, while we look ahead to 2026, we can look back at 2025 and remember that there are individual plays that make a huge difference in how you remember a season. You don’t always win because the players are All-Americans, and you don’t always lose because the coaches are dunces. Sometimes you’re just unlucky.

Like the receiving corps, the O-Line was another position group to receive a major overhaul from the 2024 to 2025 seasons. The only returning starters from a Joe Moore Award semifinalist group that helped UT rush for 200+ yards per game were former 5* left tackle and LSU transfer Lance Heard and part-time starter/left guard Sham Umarov. And for the first time in Heupel’s tenure at UT, someone other than Cooper Mays would be responsible for snapping the ball.

The center responsibilities would mostly fall to Notre Dame transfer Sam Pendelton. That’s a big deal, too. The center in Heupel’s offense is responsible for getting the whole team set. Although the Vols use tempo a little more selectively now than they did in Heupel’s first few seasons, UT was still one of the ten fastest per-play teams in college football last season. The offense can’t go fast if they’re not set, and they can’t get set until the center is over the ball. Below is a screen grab from a Glen Elarbee clinic about Tennessee’s tempo & run game:

Notice that everyone has responsibilities related to tempo, but the center’s are first. As soon as the whistle blows to end a play, the center has to look for the line judge and set his feet where the ball is going to be spotted. Not just wait for the officials to make the spot, but to go were it’s going to be spotted first. That allows the rest of the team to get set quickly and check with the QB/sideline for the play. Plus, the center is making calls at the line, snaping the ball cleanly, and reaching a block too. It’s not a job just anyone can do. Having Mays lock this position down for four years was a luxury.

With the center position up for grabs in 2025, Pendleton settled into the role. He was flanked by Umarov and Arizona transfer Wendell Moe at the guard spots with Heard and Jesse Perry at the tackles to begin with. Once 5* freshman David Sanders was fully ready to go, he stepped into the right tackle spot and Perry slid into guard duty with Umarov and Moe.

For 2026, Heard has transferred to Kentucky, but UT returns 5 OL with at least 6 starts, and add LSU transfer Ory Williams. The question becomes who are Tennessee’s best five on the offensive line? David Sanders will certainly be the left tackle. Many people (including Phil Steele) have penciled Ory WIlliams in at RT. That would leave Moe, Perry, Pendleton, and Umarov sharing the interior duties. One would assume Pendleton would remain at center. But there were some miscues in the middle last year; does someone else step into that very important role? Also, Perry arguably played his best ball last season at right tackle. And If you believe in Pro Football Focus’ player grades, Perry is UT’s third-best returning OL, and graded much higher than Williams. Maybe he should be on the edge?

But who knows how much was invested in getting Williams, or what promises were made in getting him to Knoxville? If Williams was brought in to be the starting RT, and keeping with last year’s rotation, the line would be (from L to R) Sanders-Umarov-Pendleton-Moe-Williams. Is that the Vols’ best five? And where does that leave Perry?

Nega Vol’n

Tennessee has a couple of huge games in September: a true road game at Georgia Tech and a huge home match against Texas. If the Vols struggle to identify their best five early, or if Glen Elarbee does too much shifting without allowing the unit to gel (which he’s been accused of in the past), then the offense could struggle to get going, and they don’t have time afforded to struggle.

Sunshine Pump’n

The good news is there’s a lot of good options here. Tennessee has six offensive linemen that have starting experience in the SEC. There is certainly a best five combination to put on the field, but even the worst five option should be pretty good. And barring injury, they won’t ever have the worst five on the field because David Sanders will certainly be out there. They’re a talented, experienced group that will the cornerstone of a Tennessee offense with tremendous upside in 2026.

The receiver position was a huge question mark for Tennessee going into the 2025 season. The Vols lost nearly every contributor from the 2024 squad to graduation or the transfer portal. Only Chris Brazzell II returned, and was only bringing 331 yards of production back with him—barely more than TE Miles Kitzelman’s 311 yards, and with fewer yards per catch than Kitzelman, too.

Thankfully for UT, Brazzell was ready to take a step into the spotlight in ’25. With him came two blue-chip recruits from the 2024 class: Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews. Together, the trio made Tennessee the only SEC school with three 800+ yard receivers, and Brazzell himself went north of 1000 yards on the year.

For 2026, Matthews and Staley return. Staley is the prototypical slot guy, and that’s a position that has produced UT’s leading receiver a couple of times (Jalin Hyatt in ’22, Squirrel White in ’23). The question is can Matthews or another WR fully step into the “X” receiver spot? Tennessee needs a guy that can reliably win 1-on-1 battles against the opposing corner, both as a deep ball threat and as a pressure valve for the slot WR.

Additionally, Tennessee loses Kitzelman and his 253 yards receiving—and his run blocking, which is key in Tennessee’s ground game. Former 4* Jack Van Doreslaer portaled out to Oklahoma. But Ethan Davis (the Vols 4^th-leading receiver last year) returns as does blue-chipper DaSaahn Brame.

Nega Vol’n

The lack of a prototypical X receiver could limit the passing game, which is already being handcuffed by having to start a raw QB. In the past, Tennessee has had big-bodied WRs that could go win a 50/50 ball—think Cedric Tillman (6’3, 215), Bru McCoy (6’3, 230), and Dont’e Thornton (6’5, 214). Even Chris Brazzell, who was relatively skinny at just 200 lbs., is a rangy target at 6’5. Mike Matthews’ program height is 6’1, meaning he’s probably 6-feet tall. Radarious Jackson is closer to traditional X-receiver height at 6’2, but had just 9 catches last year. Incoming freshman T.K. Keys is 6’2 and highly-touted, but will the coaching staff trust a true frosh to step into the role of clutch-time target?

Sunshine Pumpin’

This is easily the most talented WR room Josh Heupel has had at UT. Matthews, Staley, Jackson, Keys, and Travis Smith are all blue-chippers, as are Davis and Brame at TE. Also telling is the fact that Heupel & Co. didn’t really go portal hunting this offseason for the WR/TE rooms. They added WR transfer Ian Duarte (95 rec/1035 yds/6 TDs last 3 years at Idaho State) and tE Trent Thomas from South Alabama, likely as more of a blocker. Compare that to Tennessee’s portal approach in years past, bringing in guys like Bru McCoy, Donte Thornton, Chris Brazzell, and Miles Kitselman, who all became major pieces of the offense. It seems UT is happy with what they have on campus already.

Add in the fact that Tennessee’s offense changed in substantial ways in 2025 to fit the strengths of the personnel, and imagine that the same happens in 2026. As long as UT has a QB with a pulse, it would be pretty shocking for this unit to not be highly productive this season.