Thursday, November 30, 2006
Vols Get Top-100 Recruit
Reason #52 getting caught up in football recruiting is bad for your health: If momma ain't happy, ain't nobody happy.
Not only does a recruitnik have his blood pressure shoot through the roof with every message-board nugget about a player's commitment, he has to make sure the school-of-choice is cleared by the player's mother, too. So when Gerald Jones of Millwood (OK) High School says "I've liked Tennessee since I went down there ... I didn't think my mom would let me commit," Vol fans have to hold their breath.
Click here to continue reading "Top-5 Athlete Commits to Tennessee; Mom Says OK" at the AOL Tennessee Fanhouse.
Chavis Wins National Award
And you thought David Cutcliffe was the "man behind the man" in Knoxville. And maybe he is, but on Wednesday, the honor went to the "man behind the man" coaching the other side of the ball for Tennessee. The American Football Coaches Association named Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis its' 2006 Division I-A Assistant Coach of the Year.
Click here to continue reading "Vols' Chavis Recieves Coaching Honor" at the AOL Tennessee Fanhouse.
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Vol Bloggers Mid-Week Roundup
This would have been a great idea, like, in the middle of football season, and stuff...
A look at what's going on in the Big Orange Blogosphere so far this week:
@ Rocky Top Talk:
-- Post-Kentucky drive chart, awards, unit rankings, hiaku haiku smackdown.
-- Mike from Black Shoe Diaries wants to know how Vol fans feel about a potential Tennessee/Penn State Outback Bowl matchup.
-- Make your case why Robert Meachem should or shouldn't go pro.
-- Weigh in here on what one play, for better or worse, defined UT's season.
@ 8th Maxim
-- Season-ending 8th Maxim awards, including the "Will be a badass one day if not next year" award.
@ Fulmer's Belly
-- Props for Urban Meyer? Whaaaaa????
ALSO: Don't miss the UT Female of the Year voting at Fulmer's Belly and 8th Maxim.
@ Voluminous
-- Volpimp has found the leader in Alabama's coaching search.
and in the name of shameless self-promotion...
@ Tennessee Fanhouse
-- Is Cutcliffe a candidate at Alabama?
-- Chris Donald knows where he's going to college, but won't tell.
What else? Let me know if I'm missing any Vol blog action in the comments below.
Go Big Orange.
BlogPoll Rough Draft That Never Was
Today's Wednesday.
That might not come as a surprise to most of you, but for me, thinking it was Tuesday until about an hour ago, it is. Other than premature senility, why does it matter? Because 10am Wednesday is the deadline for BlogPoll ballots.
So, I spaced on the date. No ballot this week, but that's okay, because my ballot is pretty lame most weeks, anyway. Besides, there's always next week.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Phillip Fulmer Loves Tenacious D
Phillip Fulmer, after the Kentucky game, on this year's defense:
"The defense reflects their coaches. The coaches are tough guys and competitors. They're not going to get too high or too low. The defense has shown a lot of toughness and tenacity, particularly in light of the injuries we've suffered. They've been tenacious ... I guess that's a good word for it."
So the Vols' head coach loves his Tenacious D. However, Fulmer did not refer to any of Jonathan Wade's interceptions this year as a "pick of destiny." Okay, that was a reach. But give a blogger a break, Fulmer and pop culture references aren't easy to mesh.
Click here to continue reading "Phillip Fumer Loves Tenacious D" at the AOL Tennessee Fanhouse.
Cutcliffe at Alabama? Let's Hope Not
By all measures, David Cutcliffe is a Tennessee Volunteer. The only way coach Cut would leave Knoxville again is to be the head coach at a prestigious university with tradition and resources. It would also have to be in the perfect location: it needs to be in the South, and it needs to be close to home.
This just in: the Alabama job is open. Uh-oh.
Click here to continue reading "Will David Cutcliffe Be a Candidate for the Alabama Job?" at the Tennessee AOL Fanhouse.
Monday, November 27, 2006
UT Hoops: Vols @ Cajuns
Tennessee plays Louisiana-Lafayette Monday night at 8 pm Eastern. I don't know much about the Ragin' Cajuns, other than the school is often abbriviated UL-Laf, which sounds like "you'll laugh," which makes the opponent kind of hard to take seriously. I hope the Vols take them seriously, though. UL-Laf nearly beat the same Oral Roberts team that upset Kansas earlier this season. However, the Cajuns have also lost to Ole Miss and Cal State-Fullerton. Their lone win is against Ouachita Baptist. I'm assuming that's a real school and not a local church rec team.
Maybe we will laugh.
Actual game previews: UTSports.com, Tennessean.
Strange Game Between Vols and Wildcats
Friday in this space, I wrote that the Tennessee/Kentucky game could be "a shootout the likes of which this series hasn't seen since 1997," a game Tennessee won 59-31. That was a typo. What I meant to predict was a shootout the likes of which the series hasn't seen since 1947, a game Tennessee won 13-6. Without checking too deeply into the record books, however, I doubt that game had much in common with the Vols' 17-12 win on Saturday other than the low score.
In fact, I'm not sure I've ever seen a game like it.
Continue reading "Strange Game Between Vols and Wildcats" at the AOL Tennessee Fanhouse.
Sunday, November 26, 2006
3 Thoughts and a Cloud of Dust: Kentucky Predictions Reviewed
A look back at how Friday's game predictions turned out.
This shouldn't take long, as all three predictions were way off. Tennessee didn't play crisply on Saturday, and really blew an opportunity to look impressive on senior day.
--Ainge throws for 340 yards. Not quite. Despite Tennessee's inability to score, Ainge had a pretty good day, going 19/33 for 240 yards and a touchdown.
--Jayson Swain scores three touchdowns. It was a sentimental pick, but no. It would have been nice to see the offense as a whole score three touchdowns, much less Jayson Swain himself.
--Vols hang half a hundred on Kentucky. Let's see, when UT played Georgia, the 'Dawgs had a top-10 defense nationally. Tennessee scored 51 points. Against the nation's 119th-ranked defense Saturday, the Vols manged 17. You figure it out.
Tennessee didn't have trouble moving the ball, really. They just couldn't get it in the endzone. 17-12 is nowhere near the 51-31 track meet I predicted. In fact, the only thing I got right about this game was when I wrote "Tennessee is overall a better team than Kentucky and should win this game, but they might have to earn it." However, I'm not one to complain about losing, so I'll take it.
Fulmer Jockeys for Bowl Position
With apologies to everyone who never wanted to read "Fulmer" and "jockeys" in the same sentence.
Tennessee's postseason possibilities should have gotten clearer following the regular-season-ending defeat of Kentucky Saturday. They didn't. In fact, games over the past weekend not involving the Vols made the bowl scenarios for UT multiply. Prior to Thanksgiving, the Vols appeared headed to Atlanta for the Chik-fil-a Bowl or staying in-state for the Music City Bowl.
Continue reading "Vols' Fulmer Jockeys for Bowl Position" at the AOL Tennessee Fanhouse.
Did Anybody Else Have Flashbacks of Last Year's Vandy Game?
A little over a year ago, Tennessee lost to Vanderbilt in Neyland Stadium on senior day. It was the low point of an already dismal year for the Vols. In seasons past, even when Tennessee was having a sub-par year, beating Vandy was like clockwork. Ditto for the Vols' rival to the north. Year after year Tennessee closed out the home schedule with wins over Vanderbilt or Kentucky. So naturally, losing on senior day was unbelievable, unthinkable, unfathomable.
And completely unlikely to happen again, right?
Continue reading "Vols Nearly Do the Unthinkable Again" at the AOL Tennessee Fanhouse.
Saturday, November 25, 2006
Just Send Me to Hell or New York City, It'd Be About the Same To Me...
...and to the Tennessee basketball team, apparently.
Tennessee lost to UNC Friday, 87-101. If I hadn't seen the game, if I had only heard that UT scored 87 points on the Heels, if I only knew that the Vols hit 15 three-pointers in the game, if I'd only heard that UNC coach Roy Williams was "really frustrated with [his] players the way they played the last 20 minutes," I'd think Tennessee did pretty well in Friday's game.
Unfortunately, I saw the game. It wasn't pretty.
So while I'm sure Bocephus didn't have Bruce Pearl in mind when he sang that line, he might as well have. The Vols return from Madison Square Garden without a win and without playing particularly well. Tennessee shot 38% from the field against UNC in an 87-101 loss, up from 25% against Butler Wednesday. Still nothing to include in this year's Christmas card, though.
I will give Tennessee this: they fought against UNC. Down 21 at halftime, the Vols could have folded and come home with a 30-point loss or worse. Instead, they tried to rally. They're just not at the point as a team that they can spot the #2 team in the country 21 points and come back.
This wasn't the game where it "clicked." But it will happen.
Friday, November 24, 2006
3 Thoughts and a Cloud of Dust: Kentucky Predictions
Let's try a little different format this week.
Here's the known: Tennessee is good throwing the ball, Kentucky is awful defending the pass. Kentucky is statistically better than Tennessee passing, and Tennessee's defense has been hit-or-miss this season. UK will have some success moving the ball and can put up some points in a hurry. Good news for the Vols: Big Blue will give up points in a hurry, also. That said, Tennessee is overall a better team than Kentucky and should win this game, but they might have to earn it. Three predictions of what you'll see Saturday:
--Ainge throws for 340 yards. With Kentucky's weakness on defense, the game situation sets up perfectly for a career day from Ainge in Orange.
--Jayson Swain scores three touchdowns. It's senior day, and it's amazing that Swain's career at Tennessee is already over. A few good scores would be a nice way to send out a guy who's been All Vol for the last four years.
--Vols hang half a hundred on Kentucky. The over/under for this game is 60. Bet the over. Way, way over. Tennessee could get close to 60 by themselves, and the 'Cats will score some points, too. Vols win, 51-31.
Vols v. 'Cats By the Numbers: When Tennessee Has the Ball
Despite the fact that Tennessee will be facing the #10 passing game in the nation when they take on Kentucky Saturday, there's good news for the Vols when Erik Ainge and company get to take the field. Kentucky is ranked dead last in total defense among division I-A teams this season. Here's how Tennessee's offense matches up with Kentucky's defense, first on the ground:
| Rush att/game | Rush yards/game | Rush yds/att | TDs | |
| UT's offense gets: | 29.55 | 111.36 | 3.77 | 15 |
| UK's defense gives up: | 36.27 | 145.09 | 4.00 | 23 |
And through the air:
| Pass att/game | Pass yards/game | Pass yds/att | TDs | INTs | |
| UT's offense gets: | 31.4 | 266.5 | 8.5 | 23 | 10 |
| UK's defense gives up: | 30.4 | 271.3 | 8.9 | 20 | 13 |
For analysis of these stats, check out "Ainge, Vols Could have Huge Day vs. Kentucky Defense" at the AOL Tennessee Fanhouse.
Vols v. 'Cats By the Numbers: When Kentucky Has the Ball
Tennessee will face the #40 offense in the country when they take on Kentucky Saturday. That number would be much higher if UK could find a running game. The stats:
| Rush att/game | Rush yards/game | Rush yds/att | TDs | |
| UK's offense gets: | 31.00 | 95.82 | 3.09 | 11 |
| UT's defense gives up: | 36.27 | 145.09 | 4.00 | 12 |
Compare to the production Kentucky gets out of their passing game, the #10 passing attack in the country:
| Pass att/game | Pass yards/game | Pass yds/att | TDs | INTs | |
| UK's offense gets: | 33.5 | 273.3 | 8.2 | 27 | 7 |
| UT's defense gives up: | 24.3 | 170.2 | 7.0 | 14 | 16 |
For analysis of these stats, check out "Tennessee's Defense to Face Challenge Stopping Kentucky's Aerial Assault" at the AOL Tennessee Fanhouse.
The Pearlometer: UT v. UNC
If you didn't see it Thursday night: Tennessee 44, Butler 56. Yikes. The game was, in fact, as ugly as the score indicates. Tennessee was averaging nearly 83 points/game before facing Butler. How did they manage only 44? Well, the Vols shot something like, oh, say 11% for the game. Okay, it wasn't that bad, but it was close.
This team will be good. They're just not there yet. And that makes it all the more fun/frustrating to watch them. I want to see it when everything clicks and they turn it on. But it could be a bumpy ride 'til then.
So moving on, Tennessee plays North Carolina in the NIT consolation game. Some consolation: the Tar Heels come in as the #2 team in the country. But they did lose to Gonzaga 82-74 Wednesday, and there could be nothing like beating UNC to erase a game like Wednesday's from your mind. It's a tall order for the Vols, but hey, this could be the one where it clicks. UTSports.com's preview here.
On to the Pearlometer, which predicted a Level 4 Bruce for Wednesday night's game. I've had to recalibrate the Pearlometer, as coach only registered about a 2.5 against Butler. Surprisingly, the jacket never came off. Prediction for UNC:
Jacket's optional at Level 3. The frustration of a young team and the desire to come home from NYC with a W will fire Bruce up. We'll see a little blowing-up from coach in this game, and that's not always a bad thing.
Go Vols!
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Kentucky by Any Other Name Would Still Stink
Before becoming the University of Kentucky, the school in Lexington was known as Kentucky A&M and later as Kentucky State. In those days, the school in Lexington had a leg up on its border rival to the south, as Tennessee only managed a mere 5-7-2 record against the school with those two monikers.
The school in Lexington might want to consider another name change. Since 1919, Tennessee has built a 64-16-7 record against the University of Kentucky.
Continue reading "Historically, Vols Dominate 'Cats, but Will History Repeat?" at AOL Fanhouse.
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
The Pearlometer: UT v. Butler
I was hoping to have time to do a nice little preview of tonight's Tennessee/Butler game in the semifinals of the preseason NIT, but I don't. You can find good previews here and here, if you're interested. The game is on ESPN2 at 7pm eastern.
I do want to unveil the latest in technology here at Corn from a Jar. It's called the Pearlomter. It's designed to predict what level of passion Bruce Pearl will display in a given basketball game. We'll get into the various levels of the Pearlometer at a later date, but for now, let's take a level reading for tonight's' game:
There you have it. The Pearlometer shows coach at a level of Firey Intensity, jacket off, orange suspenders blazing, letting a player or official know how he feels. Let's see if the Pearlometer is right tonight, or if it needs adjusting.
Go Vols!
O Captain, My Captain!
There's no time like the present to make sure the past is remembered in the future.
Stick with me here.
Going into the last game of the season against Kentucky, Tennessee head coach Phillip Fulmer has named five seniors as "permanent captains" for the 2006 season. They are: defensive tackles Justin Harrell and Turk McBride, linebacker Marvin Mitchell, offensive tackle Arron Sears, and wide receiver Jayson Swain.
Continue reading "Heading Into Season Finale, Vols Finally Have Captains" at the AOL Fanhouse.
Foster, Holbert, Wardlow Plead Guilty
Tennessee tailback Arian Foster, fullback David Holbert, and defensive back Antonio Wardlow each entered guilty pleas to misdemeanor charges of disorderly conduct and underage drinking. All three will serve community service and will attend an alcohol awareness class at the school. All three have been disciplined by head coach Phillip Fulmer as well.
I would like to think that this will put to bed the latest ugly off-field incident for UT.
Continue reading "Vols Latest Off-field Troubles Put to Rest" at the AOL Fanhouse.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Injury Bug Wins Triple Crown in Knoxville
The injury bug continues to bite hard in Knoxville. This time, it's completed a trifecta on the defense. Sophomore linebacker Jerod Mayo is expected to miss Tennessee's regular season finale Saturday against Kentucky with what might be a fractured kneecap.
Continue reading "Vols Lose Yet Another Starter to Injury" at the AOL Fanhouse.
Corn from a Jar at AOL Fanhouse
If you haven't seen it yet this season, AOL has created a really cool blog called the NCAA Fanhouse. Each team has their own blog on the site, which makes it ridiculously easy to find news and opinion on just about any team you want. It's a great site, except that until now, Tennessee has been underrepresented on the Fanhouse. There hasn't been a Tennessee blogger there for most of the season, so Vol coverage has been limited to headlines like "Crazy Screeching Harpy Wonders Why UT Wants Her to Be Quiet" and "Volunteers Nailed For Fightin 'N Da Club."
Like I said, "until now."
AOL has recruited bloggers from across the country to write about their teams for the Fanhouse, and starting today, yours truly has joined the fold. For the rest of the season (I know, it's just Kentucky and a bowl game, but still) 95% of the football-related posts you would normally find here will be at the Tennessee Fanhouse site. Each post will have a link from here to the Fanhouse site for your convenience. You can also find my posts under my name, Andy Katzer, there as well.
So go check out the Fanhouse! You can start with my first post there "Vols' Fulmer Fuming Over SEC Officials." And while you're there, look around, there's a bunch of good writers posting at that site.
Fulmer Fuming Over SEC Officials
Many Tennessee fans criticize coach Phillip Fulmer for having too much of a laizes-faire attitude on the sidelines. Often, when a play or call goes against the Volunteers, Fulmer can be seen on the sideline merely grimacing, or worse, actually clapping. So when Fulmer went ballistic against the refs on more than one occasion in Saturday's 39-10 Tennessee win over Vanderbilt, it's no surprise that Vol fans sat up and took notice. Cries of "Give 'em hell, Phil!" could be heard across Big Orange Country.
Click here to continue reading "Fulmer Fuming Over SEC Officials" at the AOL Fanhouse.
Monday, November 20, 2006
BlogPoll Rough Draft Which Takes The BCS' Mother, Dorothy Mantooth, Out For A Nice Seafood Dinner And Never Calls Her Again
Consider this my shot across the bow of the BCS. Don't get me wrong. I'm not one who thinks we have to have a playoff in college football. In fact, I think college football gets it right more than any other sport. Playoffs are a way to name a champion, but that's not the same thing as finding the best team. St. Louis wasn't the best team in baseball this past season, but they won their playoff. Florida wasn't the best basketball team last season, but they played just good enough in March to claim a title.
In most years, I think the best team in college football is named the MNC at the end of the season. Occasionally, teams have to share that distinction, but is that really so bad? Wouldn't you rather recognize excellence than recognize luck or a hot streak?
On the other hand, I'm not completely anti-playoff, either. Playoffs are fun. March Madness is the greatest spectacle in American sports. Heck, even playoff hockey is fun. A college football playoff would be a blast. It's just not necessary.
What is necessary is something besides the BCS. I believe the old system of "everybody play their own bowl game and vote" is better than trying to come up with a second-place team "worthy" of playing Ohio State. And now they're trying to tell us that Michigan deserves a rematch. Ugh. Michigan was +3 in turnover margin against OSU, and still got beat. The Wolverines might be the second best team in America, but another team should at least get the opportunity to show what they can do. Michigan had their shot, they lost, now it's somebody else's turn.
So who deserves that shot? I think Arkansas is playing better than anybody not based in Columbus, OH, right now. But the Razorbacks lost to USC, and there's the rub. I can't endorse the Hogs over the Trojans for the same reasons I don't like the idea of a UM/OSU rematch: it's already been settled head-to-head. Should USC, Arkansas, and Florida all lose; then Michigan should get consideration for the championship game. Never Notre Dame, Michigan deserves the rematch more than ND deserves to get in.
Anyway, here's the Top 25 for the week. This thing always looks good on paper, but when I see it with the little red-and-green arrows next to the team names, I have to wonder...why do I suddenly love Texas, Oklahoma, and Clemson (?); why do I suddenly hate Auburn and Georgia Tech. Boise State jumped up because they've had a really nice year and it's time for some respect. Tennessee jumped up because I still believe they're a top-ten team when Ainge is healthy. I have to go back and check some of the others, especially Clemson (what was I thinking?).
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | -- |
| 2 | Southern Cal |  3 |
| 3 | Arkansas | -- |
| 4 | Michigan |  2 |
| 5 | Florida | 1 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 4 |
| 7 | Wisconsin | 2 |
| 8 | LSU | 1 |
| 9 | Boise State | 8 |
| 10 | Texas | 6 |
| 11 | Rutgers | 5 |
| 12 | Louisville | 1 |
| 13 | West Virginia | 2 |
| 14 | Tennessee | 6 |
| 15 | California | 3 |
| 16 | Oklahoma | 5 |
| 17 | Auburn | 6 |
| 18 | Boston College | -- |
| 19 | Georgia Tech | 5 |
| 20 | Clemson | 6 |
| 21 | Brigham Young | 3 |
| 22 | Wake Forest | 14 |
| 23 | Nebraska | 4 |
| 24 | Hawaii | 1 |
| 25 | Virginia Tech | 2 |
Dropped Out: Maryland (#22).
3 Thoughts and a Cloud of Dust: Vanderbilt Predictions Reviewed
A look back at Friday's predictions for the Vanderbilt game.
--Vandy runs for enough yards to make a Vol fan uncomfortable. On one hand, I understand what Vanderbilt was trying to do offensively against UT. The 'Dores wanted to spread out the defense and give quarterback Chris Nickson chances to create by throwing or running. On the other hand, I have no idea why they thought that would work. Better teams than Vandy have tried that scheme against the Vols this year with limited success. Even Florida only scored 21 against Tennessee with that game plan, and Vandy's no Florida. It's true that UT has had trouble containing mobile quarterbacks this year, but the Vols have struggled just as much with straight-ahead runs at times. Vandy could have put themselves in a better position to stay in this game, and I don't know why they didn't.
Oh wait, I know exactly why they didn't. Because they're Vandy. Same. Old. Vandy. Nice to have you back, fellas.
--Britton Colquitt will fall asleep after the first quarter, and there will be no need to wake him up. Pretty close. Colquitt boomed a 57-yard punt after Tennessee's third drive stalled. He wasn't seen again until the fourth quarter when, still groggy from his nap, he hit a 36-yard effort.
--Tennessee miraculously finds a run game. Miracles happen when you play the #72 defense in the country. Still, it was nice to see the Vols going forward on the ground after being stuck in neutral most of the year. Tennessee gained 166 yards and averaged 6.3 yards/carry. UT was led by LaMarcus Coker, who gained 126 on ten carries. Even taking away Coker's 87 yard run in the third quarter, the freshman tailback still averaged over 4 yards/carry.
On Friday I predicted a 31-17 Vol win. Looks like I was giving Vandy a little too much credit. I'll try not to do that again.
Vols, Lady Vols Rack Up Ws Sunday
Tennessee scored a 99-65 win over Coppin State on Sunday, led by 19 points from Chris Lofton. Meanwhile, Wayne Chism messed around and got a double-double, scoring 11 points to go with 11 rebounds. If you do the math, that still leaves 69 points for the rest of the team, 46 of which came off the bench. Tennessee forced 24 turnovers from the Eagles, but don't get too excited, the Vols turned it over 22 times themselves. Overall, though, it was a nice win for the Vols and a good tune-up before heading to NYC for Wednesday's game against Butler in the preseason NIT semis.
Now as you might have guessed, regardless of their name, Coppin is not an actual state. It is a small college in Baltimore, MD, named after one Fanny Coppin. But that's not important. What is important is that the Eagles have lost 29 straight non-conference games and are now 1-31 all-time against ranked opponents. So the Vols were essentially guaranteed a win before the game started Sunday. But I don't have to tell you that. All you have to do to figure out how big a given game is for UT is look at Bruce Pearl's tie. Here's the theory: the bigger the game, the more orange Pearl's tie. Check out this picture from the Coppin St. game. Bruce's tie qualifies as orange, but it's a very pale orange, bordering on yellow or gold. Compare it to whatever coach wears Wednesday night against Butler, and I bet you'll see a difference.
Also Sunday, the #5-ranked Lady Vols picked up an 83-74 win over #11 Arizona State. The girls' game featured a double-double, also, with 25 points and 10 rebounds coming from (of course) Candace Parker.
Sunday, November 19, 2006
Congrats to Pats, Skyhawks
Pausing from Vol-related items for a moment to congratulate my high school alma mater, the Henry County Patriots, on reaching the state semifinals in 4A football. Patriot Pride Personified will host Hillsboro High School Friday night in Paris. Go Big Red!
Also, props to the University of Tennessee-Martin on winning the OVC and receiving an automatic berth in the I-AA playoffs. As long as I can remember, UTM has been awful in football, and really, anything else ending in -ball. They do have a great rodeo team, however. For serious.
The Skyhakws will travel to Southern Illinois Saturday for a first-round game against the Salukis.
Saturday, November 18, 2006
39-10. Same. Old. Vandy.
Same.
Old.
Vandy.IFTIT: SOV
I could try to write a stirring pre-game speech to get all of you in Big Orange Country fired up about today's game. That is, I could, if we weren't playing Vandy. As 8th Maxim wrote today: we're talking about Vandy.
But this game is about one word: avengement. Okay, so avengement isn't a real word, but you get the meaning. Tennessee has avenged each of the horrible losses of 2005 (let's not count Florida, we're used to that one by now). And there's a key difference between revenge, which means delivering punishment; and avenge, which means delivering justice. Hanging 51 points on Georgia, beating Alabama in the fourth quarter by 3, using both luck and skill to beat Spurrier's Gamecocks; it sounds like justice to me.
And now there's Vanderbilt. The Commodores took full advantage of their shot at the Vols last season. But Vandy beating Tennessee, in our house, to make us ineligible for a bowl game; it's not right. Let's make it right, let's see it avenged.
Let's remind those uppity Commodores that they're the Same Old Vandy they've always been.
It's Football Time In Tennessee.
Friday, November 17, 2006
3 Thoughts and a Cloud of Dust: Vanderbilt Predictions
These have become more "stuff I hope happens that will help Tennessee win" than actual predictions, but whatever. Just roll with it.
--Vandy runs for enough yards to make a Vol fan uncomfortable. They're not bad at running the ball, we're not good at stopping it. The false hopes and dreams of gold-clad nerds will rise with the runs of Cassen Jackson-Garrison and the scrambles of Chris Nickson. Hopefully that won't be enough to keep those dreams alive.
--Britton Colquitt will fall asleep after the first quarter, and there will be no need to wake him up. The Vols will probably struggle early while getting Ainge back up to game speed and figuring out Vandy's shifty defense. But still, there are chances for UT to make big plays in this game, hopefully they will take those opportunities and get rolling by the time the second quarter comes along.
--Tennessee miraculously finds a run game. Once Ainge gets rolling and the Vandy D takes a step back to defend the pass, lo and behold, there will be running lanes. Some will say it's because Jacques McClendon is finally playing more, and that might help, but don't get carried away. It will be much less of a miracle when you think about how bad Vandy's run defense is.
This game could be close for a while. And if Tennessee doesn't score early and lets Vandy hang around, it could get scary. In the end, however, it's Same Old Vandy. Vols win 31-17.
National Measure: Football Doomsday
I won't pretend to know enough about Michigan or Ohio State to offer a preview or prediction of The Greatest Game That Will Ever Have Been Played Ever. I do know that Michigan's defense is nasty, but I don't know if it's enough to stop Troy Smith and Ted Ginn, Jr. I will be kinda sorta rooting for Michigan, because Charles Woodson's carjacking of the 1997 Heisman aside, I've always felt a certain unspoken kinship between the Tennessee and Michigan programs, like they are our Yankee cousins that mom tells us a lot about, but we never see in person.
I do know that this game is a great argument against a playoff. When college football fans defend our sport as being better than the NFL, we usually miss the point by talking about "pageantry" and "tradition." While those things do make college football fun, what makes it better than pro ball is urgency. Every game is the biggest game you'll play because one game can make the difference between spending the holidays in Miami or Shreveport. Were this game for mere playoff seeding, it wouldn't have captured the nation's attention. But it's bigger than that, so we'll all be watching.
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Tennessee/Vanderbilt by the Numbers
Fellow Tennessee blogger 8th Maxim has already done a nice breakdown of key stats for Vanderbilt. Taking a slightly different approach, let's look at how Vandy's numbers compare to Tennessee's.
When Vandy has the ball: The 'Dores rush offense is ranked #42 nationally, UT's rush D is #82. Not a great sign for the Vols. More numbers:
| rush att/game | rush yards/game | rush yards/att | rush TDs | |
| Vandy's O gets: | 31.9 | 153.3 | 4.8 | 18 |
| UT's D gives up: | 36.5 | 148.7 | 4.07 | 12 |
As you see, it would be right around both teams' norm for VU to gain about 150 on the ground. Don't be shocked if it happens. The news gets better for the Vols if Vandy tries to throw. UT's pass defense is #29, and Vanderbilt's pass offense is only #50. Table it:
| pass att/game | pass yards/game | pass yards/att | pass TDs | INTs | |
| Vandy's O gets: | 28.5 | 126.3 | 7.4 | 12 | 15 |
| UT's D gives up: | 24.3 | 124.3 | 7.3 | 14 | 13 |
Passing is not a strength for Vandy, and they throw a bunch of picks. Interesting note: teams are running a ton more against the Vols than they are throwing. Run D exposed, perhaps?
What it means: Vandy will run, and run successfully. Cassen Jackson-Garrison will go off tackle for 7. You will grimace. He'll go up the middle for 12. You'll cringe. He'll go outside for 8. You'll curse. Chris Nickson will break contain for 28. You'll throw something at the TV. Please don't break your TV, it will get better when Nickson throws that pick that Wade takes to the house. The key will be for Tennessee to score early, forcing Vandy to throw. Which means I guess we need to take a look at:
When UT has the ball: It seems the run game has been nearly nonexistent for Tennessee this year. The Vols have the #91 rush attack, but could find some space against the #88 Vandy run defense:
| rush att/game | rush yards/game | rush yards/att | rush TDs | |
| Vandy's D gives up: | 38.8 | 155 | 4 | 13 |
| UT's O gets: | 29.9 | 106.2 | 3.55 | 13 |
Of note--teams run a lot against Vandy. I would guess that teams are up on the 'Dores late and trying to run out the clock, but Vandy has played some close games this year, so I'm not sure. So UT could have a chance to run, but throwing, as it has been all year, is where the Vols will make hay:
| pass att/game | pass yards/game | pass yards/att | pass TDs | INTs | |
| Vandy's D gives up: | 23.9 | 190 | 8 | 19 | 14 |
| UT's O gets: | 31.5 | 266.5 | 8.5 | 21 | 10 |
What it means:
If Ainge is healthy, and it looks like he will be, Tennessee should be able to throw at will against the Vanderbilt defense. If Crompton has to go, then it should be easier sledding than against LSU and Arkansas. Either way, Tennessee wants to score early and often to make Vandy throw the ball, one of their key weaknesses. This isn't one of those 1990s Woody Widenhofer Vanderbilt defenses that scare opposing offensive coordinators, but Vandy is more balanced these days. If Tennessee lets Vandy hang around, it could be a long day at Dudley Field. But if UT takes care of business early, look for the Vols to roll.
The Most Obscure Tennessee/Vanderbilt Reference Ever
Remember "Major Dad"? The late 80s/early 90s sitcom about a strict military disciplinarian mis-matched with a family of free spirits, and every week we learned a lesson about yada yada yada?
There was an episode of "Major Dad" in which the Major, against his will, had to take his family camping/hiking/on a picnic or some such thing. The situation in this comedy was that Tennessee was playing Vanderbilt on the day of the family trip and the Major, being a Vandy fan, wanted to stay home and watch the game. The compromise was that he would listen to the game on the radio instead. But of course, tending to the family kept him away from the radio for all but a few seconds of the game at a time, and every time he did get to listen, Tennessee was scoring.
That show has stuck with me over the years because of the seeming randomness of a UT/Vandy game being featured on a sitcom when they could have picked just about any other football rivalry (take THAT Michigan and OSU!). I thought I had heard Gerald McRaney (who played Major Dad) was a Vanderbilt alum, but according to this McRaney went to Ole Miss. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of "Major Dad" info on the internet.
At one memorable point in the episode, however, the family is listening to the game on the radio. Vandy, close to scoring, fumbles, and Tennessee recovers. One of the younger kids asks "what's a fumble?" and an older kid replies "it's what Vanderbilt does right before Tennessee scores."
At least the writers were smart enough to keep the show within the context of a Tennessee blowout win. They could have done something silly, like have Vandy win. And there wouldn't be anything funny about that.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Big Apples and Oranges
By virtue of defeating Fordham 78-71 Tuesday night and UNC-Wilmington 87-75 Wednesday night, Tennessee has landed a spot in the preseason NIT semifinals in New York. Playing in NYC is a great opportunity for the Vols and has many implications for the program, several of which I will explore shortly.
But first, the important stuff: the fashion stylings of Bruce Pearl, pictured at left in classic grey suit, white shirt, and trademark orange suspenders and tie. Why do I care what coach Pearl wears? Maybe it's because my wife has made me sit through three seasons of "Project Runway," but Bruce makes orange look smooth. Think of it this way, if orange suspenders looked good on everyone, they'd be in every mens' store out there. Trust me, they're not; I've been looking for a set of orange suspenders like coach wears since the middle of last basketball season, to no avail. And no, I don't want the clip-ons, either, but a set of proper braces. Anyway, I've digressed...
I also believe there is a direct correlation between the importance of a given game and the amount of orange in Pearl's tie. But I'll save that discussion for another day.
Back to the actual game. Tennessee will play Butler, a 60-55 winner over Indiana, next Wednesday at Madison Square Garden. Pearl is amped about the chance to play on a big stage and plans to take advantage of it: "I've been talking about it a long time, and I'll say it again as many times as you'll write it: We're going to be playing in Madison Square Garden. We're going to be taking that Tennessee orange onto that floor. And with everything we do we're going to talk about Ernie Grunfeld, Bernard King and Allan Houston. The great Tennessee Vols who are also the great New York Knickerbockers. We've got tradition and history in Tennessee men's basketball."
Emphasis mine, for obvious reasons. It's been a long time since we could feel good about Tennessee basketball, at least on the men's side, but Pearl makes it impossible not to.
The game against butler will be carried by ESPN2, which is great for the always-important national exposure, but equally as great for the 99.99% of us who don't get ESPNU and haven't seen the '06-'07 Vols yet. Tennessee does have a non-NIT game before making the trip to New York, Sunday at 4:00 against Coppin State.
3 Thoughts and a Cloud of Dust: Funny Phil; Boring Bobby; Take My Cheese, Please
Coaches say the darnedest things: Some of Fulmer's quotes from Tuesday's press conference struck me as being unintentionally funny:
--On Erik Ainge: "He's probably upgraded to probable at this point." [That maybe might be a good thing.]
--On Vandy's offense: "Their quarterback (Chris Nickson) is a real operator, just an excellent player." [This was funny to me because now, every time I see Nickson on Saturday, I know I'll be singing "Smooth Operator" quietly to myself.]
--On the game plan for Saturday: "Our kicker and punter are real important in this ballgame, along with our coverage and our return teams...our alignments, our assignments, our reactions to plays, our ability to run the ball, our ability to play-action pass or drop-back pass, our ability to stop the run, to play zone coverage, to play man coverage, all those things are going to be real important to us as we go into this Vanderbilt game." [OK, so that was an unfairly placed ellipsis, but he did say all of that, basically kicking, covering kicks, playing defense, and playing offense are the keys to winning. If only we had known that going into the Arkansas game.]
Coaches say the darnedest things, II: Our uppity neighbors to the west are not immune to obvious coach speak, either. Vanderbilt head coach Bobby Johnson on the 'Dores game plan: "We're going to play this week; we're going to play Tennessee as well as we can play them." I know coaches aren't going to trash talk, they're not going to give up any secrets, they're not going to say anything controversial or really interesting at this point in the season. But isn't this supposed to be a rivalry game? Can we at least count on the players to spice things up a bit?
Maybe not: Vandy QB Chris Nickson on the Vols: "We're not going to stop to think about anything else besides Tennessee. Hopefully we can bring that out and end on a great note. We're not even going to think about anything else but Tennessee." Ugh. But somebody in orange has to be so p.o.'ed about losing to Vandy last year to shoot their mouth off and say something fun. Jonathan Wade, how do you feel about last years loss to Vanderbilt? "Sometimes you take things for granted, I can say," Wade said in the Tennessean. "I think that was one of those situations. We learned a lot of valuable lessons all through last year. You live and you learn. That's what life is about."
Man, I miss the days of people threatening to steal our cheese. Then again, maybe I don't.
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
When 100% Isn't Enough: A Lesson Learned About Big Play Offense
Hey CFAJ, how did Tennessee do with those "big plays" you're always harping on? Well, great, sort of. The Vols scored on 100% of their big plays against Arkansas, and 100% of UT's points came from big plays. Unfortunately, that means Tennessee only made two big plays all night, and one of those came late in the fourth quarter while the Arkansas defense was sitting in the drive-thru at Wendy's waiting on a spicy chicken sandwich.
Probably not gonna make your pretty chart of big plays look any better, huh? Well, it doesn't look much longer. In fact, here's the chart for the whole year (notice a trend?):
| Opponent | Yards/Type | From | Drive Result |
| Cal | 41 pass | Ainge/Meachem | punt |
| 20 pass | Ainge/Brown | INT | |
| 42 pass | Ainge/Meachem | TD | |
| 80 pass | Ainge/Meachem | TD | |
| 51 pass | Ainge/Swain | TD | |
| 43 rush | Hardesty | TD | |
| 21 rush | Coker | TO/downs @ Cal 3 | |
| Air Force | 44 pass | Ainge/Meachem | FG |
| 20 pass | Ainge/Meachem | TD | |
| 24 pass | Ainge/Swain | TD* | |
| 45 pass | Ainge/Taylor | TD* | |
| 28 pass | Ainge/Rogers | INT @ AFA 14 | |
| *plays occurred on same drive | |||
| Florida | 23 pass | Ainge/Meachem | FG |
| 48 pass | Taylor/Coker | TD | |
| 30 pass | Ainge/Swain | TD | |
| Marshall | 24 pass | Ainge/Meachem | missed FG |
| 48 pass | Ainge/Swain | TD | |
| 22 pass | Ainge/Smith | TD* | |
| 20 pass | Ainge/Swain | TD* | |
| 20 rush | Hardesty | TD* | |
| 89 rush | Coker | TD | |
| 29 pass | Ainge/Meachem | FG | |
| 23 rush | Coker | TD | |
| *plays occurred on same drive | |||
| Memphis | 20 rush | Coker | TD |
| 43 pass | Ainge/Meachem | FG | |
| 51 pass | Ainge/Swain | TD | |
| 84 pass | Ainge/Meachem | TD | |
| 25 pass | Ainge/Briscoe | TD | |
| 27 pass | Crompton/Hancock | TD | |
| Georgia | 29 pass | Ainge/Meachem | FG |
| 21 pass | Ainge/Smith | TD | |
| 23 pass | Ainge/Smith | TD | |
| Alabama | 24 rush | Foster | INT |
| 38 pass | Ainge/Smith | FG | |
| 27 pass | Ainge/Meachem | TD | |
| S.Carolina | 25 rush | Smith | TD* |
| 22 pass | Ainge/Hardesty | TD* | |
| 20 pass | Ainge/Swain | TD | |
| 61 pass | Ainge/Meachem | FG | |
| *plays occurred on same drive | |||
| LSU | 37 pass | Crompton/Meachem | TD |
| 21 rush | Foster | FG | |
| 25 pass | Crompton/Cottam | missed FG | |
| 55 pass | Crompton/Meachem | TD | |
| Arkansas | 27 pass | Crompton/Meachem | TD |
| 39 pass | Crompton/Smith | TD |
The big plays seem to have fallen off in October/November. What gives? Not sure, but here are two thoughts:
1) Early in the year, teams were expecting the Vols to run, run, run, and weren't ready for the pass. The only thing opponents knew at the start of the season was that UT had a basketcase at QB, and Fulmer loves to pound the rock. Turns out that basketcase is a darn fine signal-caller and a Maxwell and O'Brien award semifinalist, while surprisingly the running game is lacking. Maybe teams were loading up against the run and allowing Tennessee to throw more.
However, that makes it hard to explain why the percentage of running plays as big plays has dropped over the last 5 games. In September, running plays accounted for 21% of all big plays, since then only 19% of big plays have been on the ground. Not a huge difference, but a drop nonetheless.
2) The SEC plays really, really good defense. The Vols average 6.5 big plays/game against non-conference teams, but only 3.2 bp/g against the SEC. You might think "it's easy to rack up big plays against Marshall and Memphis," and you'd be right: the Herd and Tigers are nos. 103 and 112 in total defense. By the way, that Cal defense Jeff Tedford called the best he'd ever coached? Currently #93 in total defense, diminishing UT's seven big plays against the Golden Bears.
In fact, the best out-of-conference defense Tennessee faced was Air Force, ranking #61 in total D. The worst SEC defense the Vols have gone up against was S. Carolina, coming in at #56. All other SEC defenses Tennessee has played are ranked in the top 22 nationally. Here's good news though: Vandy and Kentucky respectively are #72 and #118 in total defense.
So, any suggestions that can fix the problems? Umm, play Vanderbilt and Kentucky? HA! But seriously. Finding a run game would help, but it might be too late. Although I'm sure getting Coker back around the same time VU and UK show up on the schedule will lend a faux-healthiness to the ground attack.
Getting Ainge back would help, too, and it might happen soon. We don't know how the offense would have looked against LSU and Arkansas with a healthy Ainge, but he did fair well against the #11 (Georgia) and #19 (Alabama) defenses, even after a rough start in both of those games. Crompton got his first real action against the #2 and #22 national defenses, a tall order no matter how talented the redshirt freshman is. If Crompton does have to play the 'Dores and 'Cats, he should look good because they're so bad.
So the Vols are guaranteed to look good against Vandy and Kentucky? Hold on, champ. I'm not guaranteeing anything after seeing UT lose to Vandy last year...but the Vols have no excuse to let that happen again. Hopefully it all works itself out this weekend in Nashville.
Amen. Go Vols!
BlogPoll Rough Draft Like Throwing Darts Blindfolded
I would like to have a real good system for ranking teams, but I don't. It's just guesswork at this point. And this past weekend shows that no matter how you guess, you'll probably be wrong most of the time. So here's this week's guesswork, which might as well be names pulled from a hat:
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | -- |
| 2 | Michigan | -- |
| 3 | Arkansas | -- |
| 4 | Florida | 1 |
| 5 | Southern Cal | 3 |
| 6 | Rutgers | 9 |
| 7 | LSU | 2 |
| 8 | Wake Forest | 11 |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 8 |
| 10 | Notre Dame | 2 |
| 11 | Auburn | 7 |
| 12 | California | 6 |
| 13 | Louisville | 6 |
| 14 | Georgia Tech | 1 |
| 15 | West Virginia | 1 |
| 16 | Texas | 5 |
| 17 | Boise State | 1 |
| 18 | Boston College | 2 |
| 19 | Nebraska | 7 |
| 20 | Tennessee | 10 |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 3 |
| 22 | Maryland | -- |
| 23 | Virginia Tech | 3 |
| 24 | Brigham Young | -- |
| 25 | Hawaii | 2 |
>> Regrettable, indeed: weeks ago I placed Arkansas at #4 on my ballot, a move Brian called "regrettable." Brian's ballot this week finds Arkansas at #3. Maybe all this guessing is well-hidden brilliance after all. But probably not.
>> Ranking anything after about #4 has gotten difficult again. I don't think USC is the fifth best team in the country, but I don't think any of the teams listed after them are, either.
>> I might be giving Rutgers too much respect. Add that top the list of sentences you ever thought you'd read.
>> What to do with the Vols? Meh. 20ish is about right right now. I think they're a top 10 team when Ainge is healthy, but who knows when that will be.
>> Looking at it now, Maryland and Nebraska should probably flip-flop.
Comments, as always, welcome/encouraged.
Sunday, November 12, 2006
3 Thoughts and a Cloud of Dust: Arkansas Predictions Reviewed
I think this picture pretty well sums up the game, so is any more discussion of Saturday night's debacle necessary? Really, look at the photo, you can tell that McFadden has just kicked it into high gear and Wade is falling all over himself trying to catch up. McFadden is a poor man's Reggie Bush. As a sophomore, he's doing just about everything Bush did last year. Oh, and the good news is that we get to see this guy again next year in Neyland as a junior. Sheesh. Also, a quick word of warning: if just one time this week I hear Fulmer say "We're gonna work like heck to get better," I might take a hostage. I'm just saying. Oh well, let's get this over with. A review of Friday's predictions:
--Tennessee will hold the ball for more than 20 minutes. Well, there was at least one area of improvement this week. In one of the few statistical categories that Arkansas didn't completely dominate, Tennessee had 28:05 in time of possession. Not too shabby, but it helps if, when you get the ball, you like, do stuff with it and stuff. And by "stuff," I don't mean "punt." Tennessee had 13 offensive possessions. Four were three-and outs, two went backwards, and only five gained more than 12 yards. Two of those five came at the end of the game when Arkansas has essentially pulled their defense off the field. Basically, for the whole game Tennessee had three drives of any worth.
--Crompton will complete over 50% of his passes. Tennessee threw for 174 yards, actually outgaining Arkansas in the air (by eight yards, whoo-hoo). Sounds descent, but a second look will show you that 80 of those yards came in the last three minutes while the Hogs' defense was at the concession stand buying hot dogs. Crompton finished under 50% for the second straight week, completing 16/34 passes with two touchdowns and an interception. Arkansas's Casey Dick was a much more efficient passer, gaining over 10 yards/attempt to Crompton's 5. Tennessee had a hard time passing (and running, and playing defense, for that matter), but it wasn't all the freshman's fault. His receivers were manhandled all night and the offensive line wasn't protecting.
I'm not sure, though, that the protection was any worse than it's been all year. The difference is that Ainge, as a veteran quarterback, can feel pressure coming, step up in the pocket, and make a throw. Crompton, being inexperienced, often planted his feet in the pocket, which allowed Arkansas to plant his head in the dirt.
--The Vols' defense will make Arkansas punt more than twice. Again, improvement over the LSU game. Tennessee forced a whopping five punts out of the Razorbacks, although 3 of them came after Arkansas had built a 28-7 lead. Tennessee punted four times in the first quarter. Ouch.
I did correctly predict that Arkansas would score 31 points. So there's a feather in my thrown-to-the-ground-and-stomped-on cap.
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Vols and Hogs Looking to Make Statements
After Tennessee beat Cal in the season opener, many Vol fans wanted to proclaim "We're back!" Big Orange faithful wanted to believe the demons of 5-6 were purged. But even though Tennessee is back to playing meaningful games in November, which is nice, truly being "back" means winning big games in the SEC. So far, the two best SEC foes UT has played have beaten the Vols in close, hard-fought games. Whether or not you recognize it, Arkansas is just as good as both of those teams.
Tonight's trip to Fayetteville provides a real opportunity for Tennessee to make a statement. Winning a highly visible ESPN prime-time game, on the road, with a back-up QB starting would give the Vols a chance to say, "We're back." It would open the door to a 10-win regular season (another benchmark on the road to "back") and a good bowl game. Heck, even a BCS bowl isn't completely out of the question.
On the other hand, Arkansas enters tonight's contest against Tennessee needing to prove itself, too. Think about that: the only team undefeated in SEC play, a team that went to Auburn and ran all over the Tigers, a team that averages over 30 points/game and 230 rushing yards/game, is also a team needing validation as being worthy to mention alongside Florida, Texas, and Auburn (yeah, the team they beat 27-10) when BCS talk comes up.
Why? Because Arkansas is carrying around the stigma of a September where they 1) got drubbed by USC, 2) needed Vanderbilt to miss a game-winning field goal to get out of Nashville with a win (Vandy, being Vandy, was happy to oblige), and 3) needed Alabama to miss every type of kick known to man for a win over the Tide. Not that impressive of a resume. However, notice, they only lost one of those games. And when the calendar turned to October, the lights came on for the Razorbacks. Yet, because of that September stretch, this Arkansas team is under-rated.
Arkansas needs this game. Tennessee needs this game. The difference may be found in whichever team wants the game more tonight.
Double Dribble: Vols Win, Bruce Ties
Two things that I didn't expect have happened since I started this blog: people actually read it, and I'm still interested in writing it now that football season is winding down and basketball is about to crank up. So look for basketball coverage/commentary here sporadically at first, but sure to gain steam as the season goes on. 
--Tennessee opened the hoops season last night with an 83-52 whompin' of Lil' Middle. It's a nice way to start, but I want to offer a word of caution: it will be dang hard for UT to repeat the success of last season again this year. I'm not sure we really knew what we had with CJ Watson, and with less experienced players running the point, coach Bruce Pearl might not be able to do everything he'd like to with this team. That doesn't mean I expect the Vols to have a bad season by any means, but another #2 seed in March isn't a realistic goal. However, I believe having a good SEC season, winning a game or two in the SEC tourney, and getting to the NCAAs, is a realistic goal.
--I love Bruce Pearl. Specifically, I love Bruce Pearl's ties. You know how Bruce rolls: orange tie every game, seemingly never the same one twice. And you gotta love it when coach rocks the orange suspenders and jacket. In fact, I'm wanting to start a gallery of Bruce Pearl fashion here at Corn from a Jar. We can even critique Bruce's ties from game to game. Kind of like Project Runway, just replace men making dresses (not that there's anything wrong with that) with basketballs. Now, I haven't yet found a picture of Pearl from last night's game, but if somebody out there has one, shoot me the link or the picture to cfaj@lycos.com or use the comment link below. Thanks, and Go Vols!
Friday, November 10, 2006
3 Thoughts and a Cloud of Dust: Arkansas Predictions
--Tennessee will hold the ball for more than 20 minutes. It might sound simple, but it's something the Vols didn't do against LSU. Last week, Tennessee had two drives longer than two and a half minutes, while LSU only had three drives under 2:30. The cause was twofold: the defense couldn't get themselves off the field, and the offense couldn't sustain any drives to help the D rest. For Tennessee to win Saturday night, that will have to change, and it will if these two things happen:
--Crompton will complete over 50% of his passes. He didn't against LSU, but now that Crompton has been through the fire, he knows what he can do. The coaches know what he can do, too, and they'll be more prepared to call plays that maximize Crompton's strengths, such as hitting a dragging tight end coming across the field on roll-out passes. In fact, a bonus prediction: Cottam (you know which one) will have a bigger contribution Saturday than we normally see from UT's TEs.
--The Vols' defense will make Arkansas punt more than twice. Two punts. That's all UT forced last week against LSU. And why would the Tigers punt, they were 3/3 on fourth down conversions. Neither of LSU's punts came in the second half, when the Tigers were 4/6 on third down, and the two they didn't convert were picked up on fourth down. A single LSU punt forced in the third or fourth quarter (or stopping the fake punt) could have made all the difference last week. It's embarrassing that the defense couldn't muster a stop, but I would be shocked to see a John Chavis defense get embarrassed like that two weeks in a row. The Vol defense has always played with pride and they will have to rise to the challenge of stopping, or at least slowing down, the SEC's best running back tandem in Darren McFadden and Felix Jones for Tennessee to come home with a win.
I think they will, and the Vols will win a hard-fought 33-31 contest.
National Measure: What's a Rutger?
One hundred and thirty-ish years ago, Rutgers helped invent college football. The program then slipped into a deep coma. On Thursday night against Louisville, it woke up.
The two greatest moments in Rutgers history, only 137 years apart.
After the game, Kirk Herbstreit said something that I strongly disagree with: "This is a great win for the Big East." Umm, no, it was a horrible loss for the Big East. That conference's chances of playing for a national championship just floated down the Raritan River. Although I'm not sure why. If Louisville was going to be BCSCG-worthy on the strength of beating West Virginia and Rutgers, then why shouldn't Rutgers be considered if they beat Louisville and West Virginia? But such is life with the BCS.
Speaking of the Big East, how are we supposed to take a conference seriously when all of its biggest games are played on Thursday nights? We're not, and we don't.
However, last night's game was a great win for college football in general. Unlike the NFL, which has a limited number of teams that can/will be good enough to notice, Rutgers just proved that any college program can become interesting and competitive. Remember, college football isn't all about the SEC.
Just kidding, it is all about the SEC. But Congrats to Rutgers anyway.
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Vols Continue Big Play Ways, But What Does It Mean For Arkansas?
First, a refresher course: back before the Georgia game, I asserted that Tennessee was no longer on a ball-control, run-to-set-up-the-pass diet; but was instead feasting on big plays (plays of 20 yards or more). At that time, Tennessee had racked up 29 big plays, and scored on 84% of drives which included a big play. The Vols have now totaled 43 big plays, 36 of which have led to points, still an 84% clip. Here's an updated table of Tennessee's big plays over the last 4 games:
| Opponent | Yards/Type | From | Drive Result |
| Georgia | 29 pass | Ainge/Meachem | FG |
| 21 pass | Ainge/Smith | TD | |
| 23 pass | Ainge/Smith | TD | |
| Alabama | 24 rush | Foster | INT |
| 38 pass | Ainge/Smith | FG | |
| 27 pass | Ainge/Meachem | TD | |
| S.Carolina | 25 rush | Smith | TD* |
| 22 pass | Ainge/Hardesty | TD* | |
| 20 pass | Ainge/Swain | TD | |
| 61 pass | Ainge/Meachem | FG | |
| *plays occurred on same drive | |||
| LSU | 37 pass | Crompton/Meachem | TD |
| 21 rush | Foster | FG | |
| 25 pass | Crompton/Cottam | missed FG | |
| 55 pass | Crompton/Meachem | TD |
Of interest: the Georgia game is somewhat of an anomaly. Tennessee scored 35 points without big play drives, which theoretically would have been enough to win. However, two big plays against UGa came at times when UT needed a spark to take the lead, so there's no way to know what would have happened without them.
Otherwise, the big plays have been needed for sure. Against Alabama, big plays led to 10 points, Tennessee won by 3. At Carolina, 10 points off big plays and a 7-point win. Against LSU, Crompton connecting with Meachem twice kept Tennessee in the game.
And there's the rub. Most of these big plays have come with Ainge at the helm. Can Crompton keep it going? The redshirt freshman made two big plays against LSU, but were those plays lucky or good? And either way, can they be repeated in Fayetteville?
As exciting as this offense has been to watch this year, this is one game where I wish Tennessee had the ability to play "Johnny Ball." With a rookie QB, on the road, at night, in the SEC, against a team that has given UT fits in the past, a pound the rock, ball-control game would be just the formula for survival. But with the run game already struggling, Foster suspended for a half, and Coker's ability to contribute up in the air, a grind-it-out type game plan probably isn't in the works.
That means one thing: it's no longer a question; "Will Crompton make big plays?" It's a statement: "Crompton will have to make big plays."
City of Crompton
Although the official announcement won't come until later Thursday or Friday, coach Phillip Fulmer is going to tell us what we already assumed: quarterback Jon Crompton will get his first college start in place of the injured Erik Ainge at Arkansas Saturday night.
Many Vol fans will be delighted to see Crompton start, especially those who were calling for the redshirt freshman to be the starter back in August. Those fans had a case in the preseason: Ainge was erratic at best in 2005 and Cropmton had shown promise in scrimmages.
But since then Ainge has been named a semifinalist for the Maxwell and Davey O'Brien awards while leading the second-highest scoring offense in the SEC. Ainge also had the Vols at 7-1 and in position for a BCS bowl before limping off the field last Saturday against LSU.
What has Crompton done so far? Well, in limited opportunities he has created a little place in Vol folklore by plowing into defenders every time he gets a chance to scramble (BTW, as fun as it is to watch, he might want to curtail that if he plans to live long in this conference). He's also thrown two deep bombs that were hauled in by Robert Meachem for touchdowns. And that's where the debate really begins.
Some fans have said that Crompton played great against the Tigers. I'm willing to say this: Crompton played great...for a guy who's never played before. I still don't know the answer to these questions--Were Crompton's long passes to Meachem skillfully thrown balls placed where only his man could reach them? Or were they prayers answered by an all-American wide receiver who bailed out his young quarterback?
We'll find out more on Saturday.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
A Quick Look at Some Big Plays
Back before the Georgia game, I made a big deal out of the 20-yards-or-more plays that Tennessee had made up to that point. Here's an update:
--In 2006, the Vols have had 43 plays of twenty or more yards. 36 of those plays came on scoring drives.
--Tennessee has only scored 10 times without the luxury of a twenty-yard play. Once was on special teams, two TDs came from the defense, and two scoring drives started inside the opponents' 20-yard line.
What does it all mean? UT scores 84% of the time when there is a big play on the drive, but have only had five sustained drives of any length without a big play. So I'm sticking with my original assertion that Tennessee has become a big-play offense and needs to take advantage of the big play at every opportunity.
More analysis of these numbers coming up, including the color-coded big chart of all these plays and the availability of big plays this weekend when Tennessee visits Arkansas.
'Till then, Go Vols!
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
BlogPoll Rough Draft For Which I Have No Time
Insanely busy week for me trying to settle into a new house and still like, work and stuff. So no in-depth rationale for the BlogPoll ballot this week, but it's chock full of victory chain goodness/badness/madness that has been beaten to death here in recent weeks. I guess actually seeing a team prove they're better on the field does have a significant impact on my voting. Silly me. Anywho, the ballot:
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | -- |
| 2 | Michigan | -- |
| 3 | Arkansas | -- |
| 4 | Auburn | -- |
| 5 | Florida | -- |
| 6 | California | 1 |
| 7 | Louisville | 5 |
| 8 | Southern Cal | -- |
| 9 | LSU | 7 |
| 10 | Tennessee | 4 |
| 11 | Texas | 1 |
| 12 | Notre Dame | 1 |
| 13 | Georgia Tech | 4 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 3 |
| 15 | Rutgers | 1 |
| 16 | Boise State | 1 |
| 17 | Wisconsin | 2 |
| 18 | Oklahoma | -- |
| 19 | Boston College | 10 |
| 20 | Wake Forest | 5 |
| 21 | Oregon | 5 |
| 22 | Maryland | 4 |
| 23 | Hawaii | 3 |
| 24 | Brigham Young | 2 |
| 25 | Texas A&M | 4 |
3 Thoughts and a Cloud of Dust: LSU Predictions Reviewed
Much later than usual, a review of Frday's game predictions:
--Ainge plays the whole game. If only. I bought the company line about Ainge improving all week, and I thought the whole "game-time decision" thing was a little sportsmanship to thow the Tigers off a bit. Wrongola on my part. I was right, though, when I said: "Jon Crompton will be a very good quarterback...someday. Saturday doesn't need to be the day. LSU's defense is too good to throw a freshman into the fire for his first start." I'm not sure a healthy Ainge would have meant an automatic win for Tennessee, but I think he might have kept some drives alive that otherwise stalled.
--Britton Colquitt is a major factor. As Joel points out: "On their first three drives, the Vols gained 149 yards. In punts. Their offense gained minus five yards." So yeah, I guess Colquitt was a major factor, or at least he got a lot of work in. For the day, Britton averaged 48.7 yards on five punts, with a long of 59.
--This game gets ugly. Depends on which sideline you were on, I guess. Entering the game, LSU and UT were the SEC's #1 and #2 scoring offenses. They both stayed below their scoring averages, but not by as much as I thought. I was, however thisclose to being right: the predicted score was 23-20, and the game was 24-21 with eleven seconds left, right before I felt a blinding pain in the back of the head. I don't know what happened after that.
Moving On
The situation has been addressed by Fulmer, and the three Vol players involved in Saturday night's incident on the strip have received their punishment. Obviously, CPF knows way more about the situation than I or any of us do, and has done what he sees fit, so I won't argue with the head man's decisions on the matter, but I still find two things disappointing:
1) From the Tennessean: "Since May of this year, the Vols have had eight players either arrested or involved in off-the-field incidents that led to their dismissal from the team. During the offseason, Fulmer issued what he called a zero-tolerance policy and kicked off two players (Lee Smith and Raymond Henderson) after they ran into trouble off the field." The "zero-tolerance" policy was, at least in part, a reaction to the perceived and/or real lack of control Fulmer had over his team last season and the part it played in Tennessee's 5-6 record in 2005. With this latest incident, those same whispers are being heard again in some circles. Coach, if you're going to have a "zero-tolerance" policy, then have a "zero-tolerance" policy, not a "zero-tolerance, sort of, depending on what you were doing, maybe" policy. If you have a different policy, that's fine, too, but make it known what you really mean, otherwise you end up in a situation like this where the public perception is that you're being wishy-washy at best, and downright weak at worse.
You might ask "Why does public perception matter at all? Isn't this an internal matter?" Player arrests at UT stopped being an internal matter about 13 arrests ago. I know it happens at all schools, but it seems to happen a lot at Tennessee.
2) Knowing several players have had run-ins with the law over the past few years, knowing about Fulmer's announced zero-tolerance policy, knowing that anything involving "Tennessee players" and "police" will be a headline on espn.com the next day, knowing that opposing coaches use those headlines against UT in recruiting, these three players, drunk or not, still made the decision to carry on like they did in public. By all reports, they were fighting with each other, not picking fights with other students walking down Cumberland Ave. And as Fulmer himself said, "when male ego and alcohol mix, it's not a good thing." But either way, these guys were doing in public what should have been taken care of on the practice field or in the locker room (the fighting part, not the drinking part), and now it's another blight on UT.
What's done is done, and hopefully (but unfortunately, doubtfully) it's a lesson learned for everybody. Now, lets get back to talking about football...
Monday, November 06, 2006
Embarrassing
Sorry for the lack of updates--in the middle of moving and don't have the computer set up all the way; I'll try to have a review of Friday's LSU predictions and more reaction to Saturday's game up later. But first, I have to get this off my chest:
I did a lot of stupid things in college. A lot. I could start a whole other blog called "Stupid Things I Did In College" and have more to write about than I have on this site. So it's kind of hard for me to criticize college kids when they do stupid things.
Except when those college kids are highly visible members of the university's most visible entity, and they've been warned about doing stupid things because it embarrasses themselves, their team, the school, alumni, donors, ect., and they've seen teammates kicked off the squad for doing stupid things (eight since May, according to the Tennessean).
When I did stupid things in college, I wasn't embarrassing anybody but myself. But when football players do stupid things, they embarrass the whole university. So Sunday I had to wake up and find out that I'm going to spend a good portion of my week defending my alma mater against people who make jokes about how we wear orange because that's what they issue at the county jail, and those who call the school "UThug." And I know I don't have much of a defense because our most visible students continue to do stupid things.
It's embarrassing. Just embarrassing.
Friday, November 03, 2006
3 Thoughts and a Cloud of Dust: LSU Predictions
--Ainge plays the whole game. Although officially a "game-time decision," the most talked about ankle in Tennessee history should be ready to go for Saturday's game, and that's a great thing for Vol fans. I have no doubt that Jon Crompton will be a very good quarterback...someday. Saturday doesn't need to be the day. LSU's defense is too good to throw a freshman into the fire for his first start. Crompton's debut will have to wait for another day, and to the disappointment of hundreds, Jim Bob Cooter won't see the field either, unless it's on special teams.
--Britton Colquitt is a major factor. Colquitt (of the "kicking Colquitts," as I'm sure VernLundquist will remind us dozens of times Saturday) will get more chances to punt than normal against the machine-like LSU defense. That's not necessarily a band thing, either. While Vol fans would rather see the offense put the ball in the endzone, occasionally winning the field position battle has to happen first. Colquitt can help the Vols do just that, especially if he can repeat his hit-at-the-one-and-take-a-right-turn-out-of-bounds effort from last week.
--This game gets ugly. And by ugly, I mean pretty, if you like defense. You might think the two highest scoring offenses in the nation's best conference would light up the scoreboard, but I've got a feeling the defenses will steal the show on Saturday. I'm probably way off on this one, but I see a fairly low-scoring game on Saturday. The good news for Vol fans is that UT's offense and defense should be a little better than LSU's enough for a hard-fought 23-20 Tennessee win.
GO VOLS!
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Is Elesyugonewhidatdaz? Vol Fans Hope Not...
Gather 'round, kids, and I'll tell you a little story about an experience with LSU.
The year was 2000. Tennessee was playing in Baton Rouge and my roommate and I were playing hooky from Friday's classes to make the road trip.
After spending Thursday night in the cheapest motel in Meridian, Mississippi (seriously, $20 for a double room, and if the mice and fleas would have chipped in, it would have been even cheaper), we were on our way to Baton Rouge. We cross the state line short on fuel and thirsty for a beer, so we pull off at the first exit we see, Bayou Fromage, Louisiana, or some such place. As I'm filling the tank of my orange-flag covered Ford Explorer, I become aware that someone is speaking to me in my periphery, but I don't know what he's saying. With a "did you say something?" expression on my face I look over to the fella at the next pump. An elderly black gentleman looks me dead in the eye with a slight grin and says:
"Elesyugonewhidatdaz."
Confusion. Did I misunderstand him? Was I supposed to understand him? Did he actually say something? I raise my eyebrows, smile politely, and say "What's that?"
"Elesyugonewhidatdaz."
Nothing. I got nothing. Clueless as to what in the world this nice old guy is trying to convey to me. I look at him again, sheepishly, and say "Sorry, I couldn't hear you."
"Elesyugonewhidatdaz."
Pain. It's literally painful to stand here and have this man repeat the same thing over and over and not have the foggiest as to what he's saying or what kind of reply to give him. My mind's racing. Elesyugonewhidatdaz. Does this guy have some kind of mental incapacity? Do I? What's worse, gas is now running out of the tank like that scene in Dumb and Dumber where Harry is filling up the shaggin' wagon but gets distracted by the girl at the next pump. Once again, I hear it, this time unsolicited:
"Elesyugonewhidatdaz."
Resentment. This old s.o.b. is mocking me! He knows I have no idea what he's saying, but he keeps saying it anyway. Finally, seeing the discomfort mixing with rage on my face, my adversary mercifully slows it down for me:
"El-es-yu gone-whi dat-daz."
Light bulb. My friend here is Cajun. What was unintelligible to my hillbilly ears was the old man saying LSU's going to whip that ass. Well, sir, I didn't drive all this way to have my school insulted in such a manner. I have to stand up for the honor of UT, nay, the entire state of Tennessee. Unfortunately, the whole situation had me so shell-shocked, I just looked at the ground, shuffling my feet, and mumbling, "Naw, man, Tennessee's gonna win." Heh. Good one, that'll show 'em.
As I got back in the car, my buddy, swatting at roaches that stowed away from the Motel Meridian, asks me what took so long. I just shake my head. "I got a bad feeling about this game, man. I'm afraid elesyugonewhidatdaz."
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
The Day the Cannon Didn't Fire
LSU blog And the Valley Shook celebrated Halloween by reliving Billy Cannon's famous Halloween night punt return against Ole Miss in 1959 that kept intact LSU's #1 ranking and 19-game winning streak. Cannon's return is one of the most celebrated and amazing plays in the history of college football. But Cannon and the Tigers went to Knoxville the following week to face a Tennessee squad that, earlier in the season, snapped Auburn's 24-game win streak. Tennessee led LSU 14-7 late in the game and forced LSU to punt. And now a hat tip to The V.I.B., who I quote below, for the Paul Harvey-like rest of the story:
"Tennessee fumbled an LSU punt at its own 2 yard line and LSU punched in in to cut the lead to 14-13. LSU would try for the 2-pointer. Cannon took the pitch right and it appeared he would make it easily initially. The Vols' Bill Majors, Wayne Grubb and Charley Severance were there for the stop (although Billy Cannon swears to this day he made it in the endzone) and that was the game. Or so the popular mythology goes.
But there was more drama left to come. LSU blocked a Vol punt at the 29 but Cannon later fumbled at the Vol 16. Later in the period, LSU moved to the Vol 40 but Cartwright made his second interception of the day. Tennessee had to punt once more and avoided a rerun of Cannon's previous week's heroics versus Ole Miss. The Vols stopped LSU on 4th down at mid-field as time ran out and the game was in hand."
Cannon went on to win the Heisman trophy and is a legend in LSU folklore. But for that one day on Shields-Watkins Field in 1959, the Cannon didn't fire.
Cutting Room Floor: S. Carolina
Hastily thrown together and poorly -edited highlights from Tennessee's win over South Carolina:
GO VOLS!