Sunday, November 12, 2006
3 Thoughts and a Cloud of Dust: Arkansas Predictions Reviewed
I think this picture pretty well sums up the game, so is any more discussion of Saturday night's debacle necessary? Really, look at the photo, you can tell that McFadden has just kicked it into high gear and Wade is falling all over himself trying to catch up. McFadden is a poor man's Reggie Bush. As a sophomore, he's doing just about everything Bush did last year. Oh, and the good news is that we get to see this guy again next year in Neyland as a junior. Sheesh. Also, a quick word of warning: if just one time this week I hear Fulmer say "We're gonna work like heck to get better," I might take a hostage. I'm just saying. Oh well, let's get this over with. A review of Friday's predictions:
--Tennessee will hold the ball for more than 20 minutes. Well, there was at least one area of improvement this week. In one of the few statistical categories that Arkansas didn't completely dominate, Tennessee had 28:05 in time of possession. Not too shabby, but it helps if, when you get the ball, you like, do stuff with it and stuff. And by "stuff," I don't mean "punt." Tennessee had 13 offensive possessions. Four were three-and outs, two went backwards, and only five gained more than 12 yards. Two of those five came at the end of the game when Arkansas has essentially pulled their defense off the field. Basically, for the whole game Tennessee had three drives of any worth.
--Crompton will complete over 50% of his passes. Tennessee threw for 174 yards, actually outgaining Arkansas in the air (by eight yards, whoo-hoo). Sounds descent, but a second look will show you that 80 of those yards came in the last three minutes while the Hogs' defense was at the concession stand buying hot dogs. Crompton finished under 50% for the second straight week, completing 16/34 passes with two touchdowns and an interception. Arkansas's Casey Dick was a much more efficient passer, gaining over 10 yards/attempt to Crompton's 5. Tennessee had a hard time passing (and running, and playing defense, for that matter), but it wasn't all the freshman's fault. His receivers were manhandled all night and the offensive line wasn't protecting.
I'm not sure, though, that the protection was any worse than it's been all year. The difference is that Ainge, as a veteran quarterback, can feel pressure coming, step up in the pocket, and make a throw. Crompton, being inexperienced, often planted his feet in the pocket, which allowed Arkansas to plant his head in the dirt.
--The Vols' defense will make Arkansas punt more than twice. Again, improvement over the LSU game. Tennessee forced a whopping five punts out of the Razorbacks, although 3 of them came after Arkansas had built a 28-7 lead. Tennessee punted four times in the first quarter. Ouch.
I did correctly predict that Arkansas would score 31 points. So there's a feather in my thrown-to-the-ground-and-stomped-on cap.